Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 202357
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 PM PDT SUN APR 20 2014

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BRINGS SOME CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COOL THINGS DOWN AND
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OTHER THAN THE USUAL
MARINE LAYER ISSUES. DENSE FOG FORMED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
MORNING WITH A MARINE LAYER DEPTH NEAR 800 FEET AT VANDENBERG. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE IN THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH TONIGHT FOR AREAS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...SO SOME DENSE FOG WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
AGAIN. FOR NOW JUST HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST. THE LA
AND VENTURA COAST SHOULD SEE MORE MARINE LAYER CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK EDDY SPINNING UP AND A STRONGER
INVERSION. WASN`T MUCH OF AN INVERSION AT LAX THIS MORNING...SO THE
STRATUS WAS LIMITED.

ON MONDAY...THE CENTRAL COAST SHOULD SEE ABOUT 5 DEGREES OF
COOLING...AS OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER TODAY WILL BE
WEAKER AND WILL TURN ONSHORE QUICKER AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM AS 500MB
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES DON`T CHANGE MUCH.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN SLO COUNTY...WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH THE INLAND AREAS RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES COOLER AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER AT THE COAST.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
CENTRAL COAST...SBA SOUTH COAST...MOUNTAINS...AND ANTELOPE VALLEY
MAY END UP NEEDING WIND ADVISORIES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ALSO WIPE OUT THE MARINE LAYER...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY. A
FEW DEGREES OF WARMING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AS 500MB HEIGHTS RISE A BIT WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW AT
MID-LEVELS. MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT WITH THE STRENGTH OF A TROUGH
APPROACHING THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  THE GFS AND GEM HAVE
BEEN STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
MOSTLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF DID COME IN A BIT
WETTER. FOR THIS REASON A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO MOST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

20/2350Z...

MARINE LAYER IS NEAR 800 FEET DEEP. IFR STRATUS WILL LIKELY REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS KNTD OVERNIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR
CIGS AT KOXR AFT 11Z AND A 20 PERCENT LIFR KSBA AFT 12Z. LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR CENTRAL COAST TAFS WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIFR
CIGS/VIS AT KSBP AFT 09Z AND A 30 PERCENT CHC OF NO CIGS AT KSMX.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS
THRU 09Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF RETURN OF IFR CIG/VSBYS
WITH CIGS ARRIVING +/- 2 HOURS OF FORECAST. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 17Z
CLEARING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 00Z TAF. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF MVFR
VSBYS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SUKUP
AVIATION...ASR
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES








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