Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 211201 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
450 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER TODAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF NORTH
SLOPE CLOUDS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
TO ABOVE NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
COOLER WEATHER AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CENTRAL COAST RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRI)...
AN UPPER TROF HAS JUST MOVED OVER THE AREA AND HAS USHERED A BURST
OF NW WINDS ESP OVER THE MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY. A DECENT SUNDOWNER
WITH 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAWN ACROSS THE SBA SOUTH
COAST. A GOOD NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT HAS BROUGHT CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN TO THE NORTH SLOPES OF THE MTN THESE CLOUDS HAVE
SPILLED INTO THE CUYAMA VLY AS WELL. THE WINDS ARE CALM ENOUGH OVER
THE L.A. COAST AND THE SAN GABRIEL VLY TO ALLOW FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL CLOUDS TO FORM FROM THE 1000 FOOT MARINE LAYER. SKIES
WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. MAX TEMPS
WILL COOL ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT THE COASTS (ESP THE CENTRAL COAST
SHOULD SEE A LITTLE WARMING WITH THE SLIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER SUNDOWNER TONIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ANOTHER WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE SBA SOUTH COAST.

THE RIDGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS FORECAST FOR THE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD IS NOW QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FCST. IT WILL STILL BE A NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS. SKIES WILL NOT BE AS CLEAR AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
AND NOW SOME NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
LA COAST.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY BUT NOW WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S RATHER THAN THE LOWER 90S. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON
WINDS AS WELL BUT MOSTLY IN THE NON ADVISORY 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL MDLS NOW AGREE THAT A TROF AND A WEAK SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EC IS RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
FRONT AND BRINGS RAIN THE MOST OF SLO AND SBA COUNTIES DURING
MORNING AND AFTERNOON SATURDAY. THE OTHER MDLS ARE NOT TOO
AGGRESSIVE SO KEPT POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE BUT INCREASED THE
COVERAGE ACROSS THOSE TWO COUNTIES. IF THE EC VERIFIES PERFECTLY A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS VTA AND LA COUNTIES BUT ITS
TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THAT. STILL IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT
THE MDLS SAY LATER TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO BRING BACK
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMAL.

OFFSHORE FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR A NICE BUMP UP IN TEMPS ESP COMPARED TO THE
CHILLY WEEKEND READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
21/1150Z.

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 1100Z WAS 1500 FEET DEEP AND THE
INVERSION TOP IS AT 3200 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 17 DEGREES C.

WEAK MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE. STRATUS WAS CONFINED MAINLY TO
COASTAL AND VLY SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY STRATUS
ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND IN THE SANTA YNEZ AND SALINAS VALLEYS.
CLOUDS WERE ALSO BANKED UP AGAIN THE NRN SLOPES OF THE L.A. AND VTU
COUNTY MTNS AND THE INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE SBA COUNTY MTNS AND IN
THE CUYAMA VALLEY. CONDS WILL BE MOSTLY IFR...EXCEPT MVFR ACROSS
COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY MID OR LATE
MORNING IN MOST AREAS...THROUGH CIGS MAY LINGER ON NRN MTN SLOPES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THRU THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND
THRU AND BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS OF SRN SBA COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH SOME LLWS AND MDT UDDF.
EXPECT STRATUS WITH IFR CONDS MAINLY ACROSS CSTL SXNS OF L.A. AND
VTU COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/WED MORNING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER UNTIL
17Z.

&&

.MARINE...

21/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE OUTER WATERS. REASONABLY GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT SCA CONDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE OUTER WATERS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVEL THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NRN INNER
WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...FOR MAINLY SEAS THIS MORNING...THEN
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SC WINDS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SBA CHANNEL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE AND FAIRLY LONG PERIOD COMBINED SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS...AND 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN INNER
WATERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...DB
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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