Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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193
FXUS66 KLOX 091805
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1005 AM PST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

WIDESPREAD RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BEGIN TO EASE
TOMORROW AS OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUE-FRI)

*** MID MORNING DISCUSSION UPDATE ***

AN EASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
SOME LOCATIONS AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS WARMER AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.  WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH BUT SOME OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ROADWAYS THAT PASS MOUNTAIN CANYONS AND VALLEYS.

EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DIMINISH INTO THE WEEKEND THEN REBOUND A
BIT NEXT WEEK.  WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT PROJECTIONS FOR TOMORROW
AS THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT DELAY IN THE COOLING TREND... IT IS A MINOR
POINT.  WILL DO MY SHARE OF SEARCHING FOR PRECIPITATION ON THE
HORIZON AS WELL...

*** EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION ***

AN UPPER RIDGE OF SOME SORT WILL COVER THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
IT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AS A 7 MB
OFFSHORE PUSH FROM KDAG COMBINES WITH 585 HGTS. MAX TEMPS ACROSS
THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL BE AT LEAST IN THE 80S AND THERE WILL BE
MORE THAN A FEW READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S. SRN CA WILL BE THE
WARMEST AREA IN THE NATION AGAIN TODAY. A NUMBER OF RECORDS WILL
LIKELY FALL TODAY INCLUDING DOWNTOWN L.A. THE STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL GENERATE LOW END ADVISORY GUSTS THROUGH AND BELOW THE NE
CANYONS OF LA AND VTA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT WIND
ADVISROY PERHAPS GOES OUT A LITTLE TOO FAR INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
MAY WELL BE BROUGHT DOWN AT NOON.

LITTLE TO NO EXCITEMENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEAK. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE EACH DAY AS WILL THE RIDGE. THE MORNING
CANYON WINDS WILL BE WEAK EACH DAY AND MAX TEMPS WILL DROP 2 TO 3
DEGREES EACH DAY. THE MAX TEMPS WILL FALL FROM 15 TO 25 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY TO 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY.

DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR AND VERY CLEAR SKIES THERE WILL BE GOBS OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING EACH NIGHT IN AREAS WITHOUT WINDS. THESE WIND
FREE AREAS WILL HAVE BELOW NORMAL MIN TEMPS EACH MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

A WEAK DRY INSIDE SLIDER KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE SATURDAY BUT WILL
DO NOTHING MORE THAN TO CREATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ACCELERATE
THE COOLING TREND (MAX TEMPS "ONLY" 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

THE RIDGE REFORMS SUNDAY AND SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
ABOUT A 2 DEGREE BUMP UP IN TEMPS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE IN CONDITIONS MONDAY.

IN THE FOR WHAT ITS WORTH (NOT MUCH) DEPARTMENT BOTH EC AND GFS
BRING A MEDIUM RAIN SYSTEM TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE FORECAST PATTERN MDLS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATTERN
SHIFT LATE THIS MONTH AND IN EARLY MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1800Z.

AT 1731Z AT KLAX...THERE WAS NO NOTABLE INVERSION AND NO MARINE
LAYER.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CAVU 18Z TAF. EAST WINDS LESS THAN
7 KT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13Z THRU 19Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CAVU 18Z TAF.

&&

&&

.MARINE...09/900 AM.

DECIDED TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO LACK OF
SUPPORTING OBSERVATIONS. EXPECTING WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS.  OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE WEAKER FOR THE INNER WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO
OTHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY.



&&

.FIRE...

09/900 AM.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERED TO AROUND 20 PERCENT IN THE
WIND PRONE AREAS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER
TO NEAR 40 PERCENT WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS HAD
DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS MORNING AND
MAY INCREASE 5 TO 10 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE
LAX TO DAG GRADIENT VARIABLE AROUND -6.5 MB THIS MORNING AND WILL
DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND REDEVELOP TO AROUND -4 MB EACH MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM RH WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH
RECOVERY IN THE UPPER 30S EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
      ZONES 44>46-53-54-547. (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/KJ
FIRE...30
AVIATION...SWEET
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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