Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 262219
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
219 PM PST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

A couple of weak weather systems will bring cool temperatures and
a chance of rain and mountain snow this morning and then again on
Monday. High pressure will bring clear skies and a warming trend
to the region Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-WED)

A moist air mass remains in place across the area today. The
latest visible imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over the area
this afternoon as a trough of low pressure exits the region.
Isolated showers are lingering across the Los Angeles-Orange
County border this afternoon. With the moist low-level pattern,
the forecast keeps a slight chance to chance of showers in the
forecast for southern portions of the area for this evening. Then,
shower chance will increase from late tonight and into Monday
morning as troughing moves over the area again.

A trough of low pressure can be seen rotating along the Pacific
Northwest Coast this afternoon. This trough will dip south through
Monday night, phasing with a trough about 1200 miles west of Los
Angeles near 32N and 139W. A subtropical band of moisture will
stream into Southern California ahead as the trough approaches
the area. The best moisture will move into San Diego County, but
the moisture band will clip the southern portion of the area. The
highest PoPs have been added for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties
for late tonight and into Monday morning where the most moist air
mass relative to Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo Counties, but
with the trough moving in from the north and west, showers cannot
be ruled out.

The trough will move over the area through Tuesday morning, with
showers and clouds possibly lingering along the northern slopes.
A cool air mass will remain for Tuesday night for possible
frost/freeze issues along with northerly winds across Southern
Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5 Corridor.

Ridging aloft should slowly take hold over the area between
Tuesday night and Wednesday night. The air mass should start to
warm and dry into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(THU-SUN)

A warming and drying trend will take place beneath offshore flow
into late week. Gusty offshore winds could develop, possibly
Wednesday morning across the Los Angeles and Ventura County
Mountains.

Another trough of low pressure should approach the area for next
weekend, but its impact could be limited to only gusty northerly
winds. At least, cooler conditions should develop with the
possibility of more clouds than sun.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1615Z.

At 1600Z, there was no marine inversion at KLAX.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Deep moist
layer will keep low VFR CIGs across coastal/valley TAF sites
with a 20-30% chance of localized MVFR CIGs. For tonight, expect
generally VFR CIGs to continue although moderately confident in
MVFR CIGs across Los Angeles county TAF sites. Scattered light
showers will continue through tonight.

KLAX...moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-04Z. For tonight, there is a 40% chance that CIGs
remain at VFR levels. Easterly winds near 7 knots this morning
should shift to the west around 20Z. For tonight, easterly winds
could approach 7 knots after 09z.

KBUR...moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of
MVFR CIGs 18Z-04Z. For tonight, there is a 40% chance that CIGs
remain at VFR levels.

&&

.MARINE...26/130 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast.
Northwest winds will likely increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels late Monday afternoon/Monday evening and continue through
Tuesday night. After a potential lull just below SCA on Wednesday,
winds are expected to increase to SCA levels again
Thursday/Friday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, there is a 40% chance of SCA level
winds developing Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday.
Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA levels.
For the waters south of Point Conception, there is a 40% chance of
winds increasing to SCA levels across western sections Monday and
Tuesday. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(WED-SUN)

No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.