Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 152337
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
537 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A couple of short waves will affect the region over the next few
days or so but a more significant pattern change may be coming by
the end of next week.

The first of these short waves, currently a closed low over the
Gulf of California, will eject out over the Sierra Madre Mountains
and eventually weaken during the day on Saturday. A healthy
increase in jet level winds on the downwind side of the short wave
will take place. However, much of the lift from this jet will be
east of the forecast area. This short wave may end up only
bringing some mid level clouds to the region. Additionally,
surface lee troughing will strengthen on Saturday in response to
this approaching upper level short wave. This will bring an
increase in southwesterly surface winds and possibly elevated
fire weather conditions.

A stronger jet will move overhead for the next short wave late on
Sunday. Currently, this disturbance was moving onshore in the
Pacific Northwest with it eventually making it as far south as
northwestern Mexico before ejecting out late Sunday into Monday.
There will be better chances of measurable precipitation with this
short wave but this system will have to bring its own moisture.
Some light snow could also develop on the South Plains early
Monday morning but little to no accumulations are expected at this
time.

A pattern change looks to be coming by late next week going into
the holiday weekend with large amplified flow carving out a ridge
over the west coast of North America and troughing elsewhere.
Temperatures will likely turn colder following a cold front on
Thursday but any forecast concerns beyond this point are
nebulous.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

28/28/99



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