Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 201204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
704 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Overnight convection has cleared out, and VFR conditions have
moved in. This is expected throughout the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

Scattered showers and t-storms with pockets of heavy rain keep
rumbling on across the western and central South Plains early this
morning. The storms developed underneath some broad diffluence on
the western flank of the upper high, and a west-east axis of deep
moisture convergence, and a westward-moving outflow boundary.
This activity will gradually move northwards while diminishing as
we head toward sunrise.

For the remainder of Sunday, there may be a slight w-nw expansion
of the upper ridge centered over east Texas, but deep moisture
will continue to reside across the area, although some drying may
work in from the south. Convective signals are pretty weak locally
today, while we anticipate quite a bit of activity to develop over
in New Mexico within the monsoon moisture plume. The best shot
for rain will be with the NM activity as it slowly drifts across
the state line this evening, although we can`t really rule out
some isolated storms anywhere across the forecast area.

Monday...eclipse day...there`s a good chance that we`ll see some
lingering shower activity across the western counties in the morning.
Just how far east the cloud cover associated with this activity
will extend is still in question. The forecasts for high RH in the
700-300mb layer have remained fairly consistent though...roughly
to the west of a line from Brownfield to Tulia, which puts Lubbock
firmly in the partly cloudy category for now. We probably won`t
be able to give a definitive answer to the viewing conditions
across Lubbock until we see the extent of the shower activity

There will be a chance of storms Monday afternoon and evening,
mainly across the west and north, and again on Tuesday. A cold
front is still expected to push into the area Tuesday night and,
coupled with a small shortwave and period of northwest flow
aloft, should increase t-storm activity across the forecast area
through Wednesday. There will be potential for strong storms and
heavy rainfall during this period - particularly across the far
southeast Texas Panhandle and northern Rolling Plains. rain
chances should decrease from north to south during the day
Wednesday as the front continues on south of the area. Depending
on the amount of cloud cover and shower activity Wednesday and
Thursday, temperatures are still looking to be pretty cool, with
highs only in the 80s, and possibly 70s in the west. Rain chances
may increase again by late Thursday or Friday as we get return
flow over the old front and a shortwave approaches from the west.




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