Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250433
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1133 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Breezy northwesterly winds continue their slow decline late
tonight. Sustained speeds should finally drop below 12 knots in
the predawn hours, though a minor increase may occur as
heating/mixing occurs Saturday morning before further weakening
late morning into the afternoon hours. Aside from a few clouds
around 3000 feet near KCDS early on, VFR conditions with little to
no cloud cover are expected this TAF cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 703 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

UPDATE...
We`ve allowed the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory across the
forecast area to expire as scheduled. Observations from the West
Texas Mesonet show that wind speeds are on the downward trend,
although we are still seeing breezy conditions of 25 to 35 mph at
many stations - especially across the north. But these should
further diminish in the next hour or so as the stronger winds
aloft decouple.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Even with an impressive cyclone spinning over the eastern Texas
Panhandle, high winds in our CWA have been rather subdued in both
time and space today. Nonetheless, NW sustained wind speeds are
still flirting with 40 mph at times across our northern zones, so
the wind headlines will remain intact until 7 PM. Boundary layer
decoupling alone won`t be enough to curtail these winds much below
20 mph this evening, particularly as stronger pressure rises arrive
ahead of surface ridging. Northerly winds will finally relax to
lighter speeds after midnight as a broad surface high drains into
the region. This should allow enough time for healthy radiational
cooling in our NW zones where a light freeze appears likely.
Saturday remains a stellar day under clear skies, seasonably mild
temps and light winds within the lingering surface pressure ridge.

LONG TERM...

A progressive pattern looks to remain in place for the extended.
After a pleasant Saturday, the next upper level trough will dig into
the region from the Great Basin becoming negatively tilted then
establishing a closed circulation to our north. After a period of
ridging on Monday the next trough will also follow suit and evolve
into a cutoff low late Tuesday ejecting across the Panhandle on
Wednesday.  The next system to our west looks like it may take shape
for next weekend though the inter-model synoptic level features are
not in good agreement.

Sunday looks to be another breezy day with westerly winds until a
cold front arrives late afternoon or early evening.  Monday should
be another pleasant day before weather becomes more active on
Tuesday.  For Tuesday`s event, the upper low looks to travel
sufficiently far south to give us another round of thunderstorms
and severe potential exists.  Given the dynamical forcing and
modest temperatures, we may once again see a thin line of
convection though there is some potential for a bit more moisture
return. Another windy cold front comes in Wednesday afternoon with
another pleasant day for Thursday. Notice a pattern?

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23/33/23



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