Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 010051
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
751 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Wind speeds are really dropping off and we will allow the wind
advisory to expire as scheduled at 8 pm. Winds will become light
and variable through much of the overnight hours. Products have
been updated to reflect the expiration of the wind advisory.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

AVIATION...
Northwesterly winds are coming down and will really drop off in
the next hour or so. Expect light and somewhat variable winds
through the remainder of the TAF cycle. VFR will dominate as the
strong spring storm system that supplied the winds continues to
lift off to the northeast into the western Great Lakes by Monday
afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably strong and textbook cyclone centered over south-
central KS was slowly pulling away from the TX South Plains this
afternoon, but not after subjecting portions of our N-NE zones to
frequent high winds with gusts measured as high as 65 mph. A 50
knot northerly LLJ axis responsible for these winds was located
from about Pampa to Childress at 3 PM, but a persistent arc of
thicker clouds under a cold pocket was sparing some areas from
mixing into this stronger momentum layer. With the departure of
the LLJ underway, will let the high wind warning expire at 4 PM
and maintain a wind advisory through 8 PM for all but our SW
and far western counties.

NW gradient winds will slacken this evening as an elongated
surface ridge slides east, before exiting most of the CWA by
daybreak Monday. Sufficiently low dewpoints and ample radiational
cooling could breed a spotty light freeze or frost for some locales
in our NW zones, but no headlines are foreseen given the
anticipated low coverage. Otherwise, height fields and thicknesses
will make ample strides higher on Monday despite continued
cyclonic NW flow aloft. This warming will coincide with surface
troughing somewhere near Highway 84 by peak heating, with some
hints of cool surface ridging still lingering farther east.

By Tuesday, winds aloft will back due west as a minor trough
enters the Four Corners. This will promote substantial warming and
some breezy SW winds before another trough sharpens over the
central Rockies, and eventually restores dry and uneventful NW
flow through the end of the week. Until that point, the arrival of
the trough late Tue night and a cold front could wring out some
showers or storms as they impinge on a modified return flow of
Gulf moisture, mainly in our eastern zones. Farther north,
saturation looks to be confined too high aloft from residual
Pacific moisture accompanying the trough, so feel Superblend`s
dry theme across our northern zones has merit. Northerly winds
behind this front come Wednesday were boosted much closer to
the windier CONSMOS as Superblend still appears much too weak.
Regrettably, this front with below normal temps will deal a heavy
blow to the Gulf of Mexico by late week as it soars all the way
to the Yucatan Peninsula under strong cyclonic flow. Not until
next weekend do we see modest moisture return under a stout upper
ridge traversing the middle of the Nation. Good support from the
long range ensembles and pattern recognition point to a return to
some low-end precip chances by late next weekend west of the upper
ridge axis, mainly near the TX-NM state line where subsidence
will be decaying the most. Even so, gut feeling is this pattern
would favor high based convection with potentially more virga than
measurable precip given paltry low-level moisture and a return to
above normal warmth.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

23/33


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