Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA

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000
FXUS61 KLWX 271837
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
237 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND NRLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 70S LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. CU
FIELD WILL DISSAPATE THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING
SHELTERED VALLEYS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED. TEMPS WILL REACH
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVERNIGHT. UPPER 60S IN THE METROS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL FRIDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES OFF THE
EAST COAST. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEWPTS WILL
BEGIN TO RISE BUT SLOWLY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY REACH THE VA
HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

NO PROBS XPCTD AS WE MOVE INTO THE LAST WKND OF AUG. HIGH PRES WL
BE MIGRATING FM THE UPR MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID ATLC...MODIFYING
THE AIR MASS SO THAT THE AREA XPRNCS INCSRG HUMIDITY/TEMPS OVR
THE WKND. HIGHS 85-90. LOWS 65-70. SLT CHC OF AFTN TSTMS OVR THE
MTNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER OM SOLUTIONS FOR
THE PERIOD OTHER THAN GENERAL RIDGING OVER REGION AND APPOACH OF
ERIKA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ECMWF SUGGEST MODERATE PVA TO SUPPORT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING EARLY HALF OF PERIOD AND A WEAKER
ERIKA WHILE GFS SHOWS WEAKER SUPPORT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT A
STRONER ERIKA.

LEANING TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF
ANY STORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. N WINDS 5-10KTS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT MRB LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S-
SE FRIDAY 5-10KTS.

VFR CONDS XPCTD OVR THE WKND.

&&

.MARINE...

N WINDS 10-15KTS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE FRIDAY.

WINDS XPCTD TO RMN BLO SCA VALUES THIS WKND.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
PRODUCTS...HAS/WOODY!/CEM



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