Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 270307
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
807 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK, SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO WINDS ALONG
THE COAST FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SMALL SCALE EDDIES
THAT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME RESOLVING. OTHERWISE, WILL
BE WATCHING THE SMOKE OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, WHCIH APPEARS
TO HAVE INTENSIFIED AS PER THE LAST FEW VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES
BEFORE SUNSET. ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR A
LARGER AREA OF SMOKE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 27/00Z TAF CYCLE...COASTAL STRATUS IS
CURRENTLY HUGGING THE COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AT
THE COASTAL SITES INCLUDING KOTH AND KBOK. EXPECT STRATUS TO PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AS WELL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDTIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SISKIYOU COUNTY.
/MND


&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 810 PM PDT TUE 26 AUG 2014...SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVEING BEFORE THE THERMAL
TROUGH RESTREGTHENS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THIS...NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO STREGTHEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO THE
ADDITION SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF AND
SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN STEEP AND CHOPPY WITH NORTH WINDS PEAKING ON THURDSAY. SEAS
WILL LOWER BREIFLY LATE THIS WEEK BUT MAY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH BRINGS INCREASING
NORTHWEST SWELL.
/MND


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 446 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MARINE STRATUS AND FOG HAS THINNED SOME THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IS
HANGING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THIS EVENING EXPECT THIS
FOG AND STRATUS TO BEGIN TO REDEVELOP BACK ONSHORE.

SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE AREA HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STATIONARY TODAY AS WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN UP ABOUT 10KFT ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. EXPECT THAT HAZE AND SMOKE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH
IN THE SAME AREAS AS IT IS NOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME
SPREADING TO THE EAST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AT ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS FOR THE CALENDER DATE. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUD COVER ACROSS
INLAND AREAS, BUT STILL NOT MUCH.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN TO THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE LESSER THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BUT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RIDING IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW IS STILL LIKELY
TO BRING AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FRIDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK MINIMAL
AND THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

ONE FOOTNOTE IS EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST
OF THE CASCADES CENTERED ON SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
HAVE RISEN SUCH THAT WE PROBABLY WON`T NEED FIRE WEATHER WATCHES
OR WARNINGS, BUT IT WILL BE WINDY ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS GIVE THE DRYNESS WE ARE EXPERIENCING. BTL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 2 PM
     WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     5 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 PM PDT THURSDAY
     FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

BPN/BTL/MND






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