Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 030006
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
706 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH
TOMORROW.

IN THE MEANTIME...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH HAVE FACILITATED A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY...WITH MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 75 TO 80
DEGREE RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS LEFTOVER FROM NOCTURNAL DAKOTAS
CONVECTION HAVE HELD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. REALLY DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE MUCH MORE THAN THAT UNTIL DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THE
DAKOTAS /CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW...MORE SO IN NORTH DAKOTA NORTH OF
THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION/...SPREADS EASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN LATER THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE PRESSES IN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THIS
SECONDARY ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 09Z...AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS DO FAVOR STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...AND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM
THE DAKOTAS ACTIVITY...MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME DESTABILIZING. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO VERY MARGINAL...SO AT THIS TIME THE LIKELIHOOD
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD... WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU
FRIDAY WILL BE IMPACTED BY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...SATURDAY THRU TUESDAY...WILL BE RELATED TO ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CANADA
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST.

FIRST...THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD FROM THE WEST...AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THRU FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS
IS A RELATIVELY FAST FLOW...BOTH THE GFS/EC HAVE HELD OR EVEN
SLOWED THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
LEAD TO HOLDING ONTO THE PRECIPITATION LONGER INTO THE EVENING
THAN EXPECTED. BUT...WITH THE FAST FLOW...YOU WOULD EXPECT A
FASTER SOLUTION AND QUICKLY MOVING OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FIELD WITH IT. I DO LIKE THE EC/GEM
SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEPS THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FIELD EAST/SE
OF OUR CWA AFT 00Z AS THE ANTICIPATED SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THIS
FASTER FLOW...MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. THE SECOND CONCERN IS
WHETHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN. THE GFS IS WETTER AND
FURTHER NORTH THEN THE EC/GEM WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE
DRIER EAST/NE FLOW DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...KEPT SLIGHT CHC AS FAR
NORTH AS THE TWIN CITIES BASED ON SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE WIND
FIELDS.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE RELATED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SW CONUS...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL LEAD
TOWARD WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE BLENDED SCENARIO...BUT THE BEST SOLUTION IS TO
HOLD ONTO CHC POPS STARTING SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE MEAN FLOW FROM
BOTH THE EC/GFS BECOMES MORE NW DUE TO A STRONGER SHRTWV MOVING SE
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

THERE REMAINS NO REAL WARM WEATHER IN TERMS OF HIGHS IN THE 80S OR
EVEN 90S BASED ON THE UPPER FLOW AND MEAN ENSEMBLES 50H HEIGHTS
PAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE KEY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP
WILL OCCUR ONCE THE LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER
EASTERN CANADA...SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN...OR A LONG WAVE TROUGH BEGINS
TO TAKE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FIRST BATCH WILL BE SCATTERED STORMS IN NORTH DAKOTA. THESE HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...BUT MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLING AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE INCREASING. THUS THINK STORMS WILL ARRIVE NEAR KAXN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND MAY CLIP KSTC LATER TONIGHT. OTHER AREA WILL BE
DEVELOPING STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST...HEADING INTO SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MN LATE TONIGHT...ALSO AIDED BY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40
KNOTS. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR EAST THE THUNDER WILL EXTEND.
IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY REACH EAST CENTRAL MN
INTO WISC BY 12Z...BUT MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAN NOT SUGGEST MID
TO LATE MORNING FOR THIS AREA. OTHER CONCERN WILL BE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE QUITE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY.

KMSP...
THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR THUNDER BY 10Z...BUT THUNDER LOOKS MUCH
MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE/DEVELOP AROUND 15Z. MIGHT EVEN BE A SECOND
ROUND OF THUNDER DURING MID/LATE AFTERNOON BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY
QUESTIONS ABOUT STORM EVOLUTION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF AFTERNOON THUNDER FOR NOW. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS AND THE
THUNDER TIMING IS ONLY AVERAGE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA. WIND VARIABLE 5 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN TSRA. WIND E 10 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND ENE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...TDK


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