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000
FXUS63 KMPX 120355
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1055 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE RAIN SNOW MIX HAS DROPPED INTO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY
MID AFTERNOON.  SHOULD EXIT THE AREA THROUGH 6 PM.  FORCING WASN/T
STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE AREA OVER TO ALL SNOW.  THERE MAY HAVE BEEN
A BAND OF SNOW FOR A TIME...BUT BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE THE LOWEST
2-3K FEET OF THE BL REMAINED AROUND FREEZING.

THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND GENERATE A SMALL CHANCE
OF LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND AS THE
TROUGH SWINGS EAST...IT MAY GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT INTO FAR EASTERN
AREA PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
THE 12Z NAM WAS THE MOST VIGOROUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH THAT WOULD AFFECT THE MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...WE
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AREA
EXPECTED TO COOL BACK INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF CWA...AS THE POCKET
OF MINUS 12C TO MINUS 18C H85 TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

FOR THE MOST PART...THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
FAIRLY QUIET. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE REST OF THE PERIOD LOOKING DRY UNTIL POSSIBLY
SUNDAY OR TUESDAY...THOUGH BY THEN...MODELS HAVE DIVERGED ENOUGH
WHERE IT`S HARD TO PUT MUCH STOCK IN ANY ONE OUTCOME.

OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK...WE WILL MAINTAIN A MEAN PATTERN
OF A WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RIDGES RIDING THROUGH THE NW FLOW THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR A BIT A VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK...BUT STARTS TO
BUILD CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEEKEND. PREFERRED MODELS FOR THE NEXT
WEEK ARE THE NAM/SREF/GEM-REG FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ABOUT A 50/50 SPLIT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GEM FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD THAT WILL
SHIFT SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS HIGH SHIFTS
EAST...THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AGAIN GET INTO STRONG RETURN FLOW AS
A PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...BEFORE SAID
PACIFIC AIRMASS ARRIVES...IT IS LOOKING BETTER FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS A QUICK BURST OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285-290K SFC AND FGEN ON A WARM FRONT IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS POINT...FAVORED A
BLEND OF THE NAM/SREF/GEM-REG FOR THIS PRECIP...WITH A QUICK BURST
OF SNOW WORKING ACROSS ERN MN/WRN WI BETWEEN 6Z AND 15Z THU. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BIG OUT OF THIS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE
BEFORE WARM AIR ARRIVES TO QUICKLY MELT THAT SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT...A WARM NOSE...CHARACTERIZED BY 925-850 MB
TEMPS OF +4C EAST TO +9C WEST WILL WORK OVER THE MPX AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS AGAIN WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S FOR PARTS OF MN WITH NO MORE SNOW COVER. AT THE
MOMENT...THAT SNOW LINE SITS ROUGHLY ALONG A MORRIS...REDWOOD
FALLS...ST. JAMES LINE. THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO
TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON NOT RISING VERY FAR ABOVE
THEIR FRIDAY MORNING VALUES.

BIG CHANGES WITH THE MODELS WERE SEEN FOR THIS WEEKEND BEGINNING
SUNDAY. SATURDAY STILL LOOKS COOL AS A 1035MB HIGH BUILDS INTO NRN
MN. BY SUNDAY...THE 11.12 ECMWF/GEM SHOW THE H5 RIDGE NOW REMAINING
FARTHER WEST...WITH A CLIPPER GREETING US FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT....WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ON THE COLD SIDE OF NORMAL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE 11.12 GFS LOOKS MORE LIKE THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
ECMWF...WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY KICKING IN SUNDAY AND ANOTHER MILD
AIRMASS WITH HIGHS MAKING A RUN AT 50 BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AT THIS POINT...WENT WITH AN EVEN BLEND OF THE CURRENT 11.12 MODELS
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AS FOR THAT PRECIP CHANCE TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT ALL OVER
THE BOARD HERE...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT PRECIP TUESDAY...BUT FOR
DIFFERENT REASONS. THE GFS HAS A STRONG COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH SOME RA/SN POSSIBLE WITH IT AS IT PASSES.
THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT ALL SNOW TUESDAY AS THE AREA GETS INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. AT THIS POINT...HAVE JUST SOME CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MON
NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH A RA/SN MIX...THOUGH WOULD NEED TO SEE SOME MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH GUIDANCE BEFORE BUYING OFF ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

THE RAGGED AREA OF LOW-END VFR CLOUDS OVER EASTERN ND AND
NORTHERN MN/WI WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD THE TAF AREA
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED CIGS SHOULD BE BETWEEN 3500 AND 6000 FT FOR
THE MOST PART...BUT COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR LEVEL CLOUDS FILTER
IN...PRIMARILY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN TOWARD
THE MORE OPTIMISTIC /VFR/ ROUTE IN THE TAFS...GIVEN MODELS
HAVE BEEN OVERDOING RH PROGS LATELY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
CLOUDIEST SKIES EXISTING OVER WESTERN MN. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BACK FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY EVE. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO
AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

KMSP...
FLEETING SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH
PRIMARILY FEW-SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON. LLVL RH INCREASES NOTABLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THURSDAY...WHEN A BKN-OVC MVFR LEVEL DECK /3KFT/ IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ONCE THE MVFR DECK DEVELOPS
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. NNW WINDS BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 18Z WE...THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND/AFT 3Z THU.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...CHC MVFR EARLY WITH -SN...THEN VFR DURING THE AFTN. SW WIND
5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. W 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS