Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 290701
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED
IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL
FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             82  58  85  63 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  81  57  81  61 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       80  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              78  53  79  53 /  10   0   0  10
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG/DH



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