Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 292023
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
223 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Other than afternoon breezes, pleasant weather conditions will
prevail through Monday as high pressure dominates the region. In
fact, high temperatures on Monday will range from 10-15 degrees
above normal, so get out and enjoy as changes are on the way.

A Pacific weather system will bring several impacts to the region on
Tuesday:

1) Confidence is good that gusty south to west winds will develop
ahead and behind the cold front during the day on Tuesday
especially across western Montana. Small craft will be vulnerable
to gusts between 25-35 mph with a 1 to 2 foot chop on Flathead
Lake. Also cross winds will affect high profile vehicles
especially along the I-90 corridor from Drummond to Butte.

2) Snow levels will come crashing down by Tuesday evening
allowing for snow to return to mountain passes. Initially it will
be slushy, but will try to stick better by Tuesday night making
way for slick conditions. Confidence is good.

3) Even high valleys across southwest Montana could see impact
from snow with strong gusty winds including Georgetown Lake,
Anaconda to Butte and Silver Bow county as the frontal system
passes through Tuesday evening and night.

4) Confidence is low, but there could be an isolated thunderstorm
across northwest Montana with the main impacts being a heavy
downpour with some graupel mixed in and limited visibility.

This upper level trough will be a little colder than the one that
moved through this past Saturday. As a result, very unstable
conditions will encourage showers to continue on Wednesday. If
places across northwest Montana are able to warm enough, there
could be a few embedded thunderstorms but confidence is low at
this time. With snow levels down to valley locations, there could
be intense snow and graupel showers, but the road impacts should
not be that bad with warm ground temperatures causing it to melt
off eventually with the exception of high mountain passes.
Temporary visibility reductions could pose a danger to motorists
traveling through the area from the showers. Atmospheric profiles
point to the possibility for breezy conditions from Missoula to
points east and south to Butte by Wednesday afternoon. At this
time the wind gusts should remain below 30 mph.

Cool and showery conditions will continue Thursday through the Easter
weekend. Forecast models are not in good agreement with the timing
of weak disturbances, but overall some nice days will be mixed in
with the showery weather. Also, sensitive vegetation may be
vulnerable to cold temperatures both Thursday and Friday mornings, but
much will depend on the amount of cloud cover present. Please see
weather.gov/mso, for the latest forecast on the potential cold
morning temperatures the latter part of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure will dominate into Monday with no significant
aviation concerns. Periods of high/mid level clouds will pass
through from time to time with afternoon breezes of 10 to 15 kt.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$



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