Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 241100
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
400 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...Icy roads for this morning`s commute...

...POTENTIAL HEAVY SNOW EVENT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
NORTHWEST MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Snow showers will be on the decline this morning as
a brief break between weather systems brings drier air into the
region. However, temperatures have cooled to below freezing for
most areas, which has allowed moisture on roadways to freeze. A
very slick morning commute is anticipated. Bridges, untreated
roads/secondary roads, sidewalks and parking lots will be
especially slick. Winter weather advisories remain in place.

A very moist and somewhat mild weather system will quickly arrive
to the northern Rockies tonight. This system has an impressive
moisture feed associated with it, which will lead to a potential
prolonged heavy snow event (tonight through Wednesday) for the
higher terrain, especially across northwest Montana. Initially,
snow levels will start low enough to bring snowfall to most valley
locations. However, as a warm front moves through the region
Tuesday into Wednesday, snow levels will be on the increase. The
timing of this warm air is critical in determining how much snow
will fall in the valley locations. Currently, the valleys of
northwest Montana are most likely to experience moderate snow
accumulations (mainly during the tonight through Tuesday night
period) as warm air will be the slowest making it this far north.
Travel impacts are expected during this period, especially on
mountain passes. Snow could become quite heavy at times causing
low visibility and quickly changing road conditions. It does look
like snow levels will largely rise above most mountain passes by
late Wednesday.

Precipitation will largely taper off on Thursday; however,
lingering showers are anticipated across northwest Montana.

Confidence is growing for a push of much colder air and another
round of potentially impactful snow this weekend. Forecast models
seem to be zeroing in on the Friday into Saturday time frame for
this next event to take place. Gusty winds, much colder
temperatures and both mountain and valley snows are possible, so
stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Lingering light snow showers are expected to taper off
for KBTM and KSMN this morning. Despite the atmosphere drying out
during the daylight hours, mid-level cloud cover and terrain
obscurations should remain. The next potent low pressure system
moves in around 25/0600Z with widespread accumulating
precipitation and lowering ceilings. The current forecast has snow
accumulations for KGPI and KMSO before snow turns to rain.
Surface winds of 5 to 10 kts will accompany this system, with KBTM
seeing gusts to 15 kts.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Butte/Blackfoot Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Lower Clark
     Fork Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Wednesday morning
     West Glacier Region.

     WINTER STORM WATCH from this evening through Tuesday evening
     Potomac/Seeley Lake Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 8 AM MST this morning Eastern
     Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Southern
     Clearwater Mountains.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM PST this morning Northern
     Clearwater Mountains.

&&

$$



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