Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 181002
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
402 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...As expected, showers and thunderstorms have
developed overnight across southern Idaho. This activity will
continue to move northeast across Lemhi County and southwest
Montana this morning. What perhaps hasn`t necessarily been
expected are the widespread radar echos over southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Although there is little ground evidence to
suggest more than light sprinkles are hitting the ground, this
activity likely suggests that the push of moisture is a bit more
robust than models previously indicated. As such have increased
chances for precipitation across central Idaho and west central
Montana a bit for this morning with better chances still expected
late this morning through this afternoon in association with a
cold front passage.

A rather moist air mass will remain in place this evening. But
with limited instability believe showers will be largely limited
to the higher terrain and most numerous along the Montana/Idaho
border, northwest Montana and near the Canadian border. A few
showers may remain early Friday morning but instability begins to
wane during the afternoon as dry air works its way into the
region. Mostly clear conditions with calm winds will likely lead
to a seasonably cold Saturday morning with some patchy fog.
Temperatures will be right near normal Saturday afternoon as high
pressure begins to build over the area.

The next system will start to impact the Northern Rockies next
Wednesday and Thursday. There is still a lot of variability among
models on the details, but confidence is increasing quickly that
this will be a cool wet period.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the
vicinity of KSMN and KBTM this morning. However aside from
occasional lightning, the impact to visibility and cloud heights
is expected to be minimal. Elsewhere the affects of showers will
be even less. Some breezy conditions are expected this afternoon
as a cold front moves through the region.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$




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