Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 032004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
204 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will keep sublime spring conditions
with and above normal high temperatures (15-20 degrees) in place
through Wednesday. Overnights temperatures will be quite warm in
the mountains, further continuing the melt of our dwindling snow
pack (presently 60%-80% or normal). However, valley temperatures
are going to remain comparatively crisp and seasonably cool. Some
additional cumulus clouds are likely to sprout Wednesday
afternoon, but surmount to little more than periodic shade.

Thursday will be another warm day, with an increasingly
destabilizing atmosphere across all of the Northern Rockies ahead
of a cold front expected later that night. The front will bring
about an increased potential for thunderstorms, likely to develop
later in the afternoon and through the early evening hours, as
they typically do. Given the amount of instability being shown in
models, there is a growing threat that storms that develop could
cause gusty winds (in excess of 30+ mph), along with frequent
lightning, brief heavy rain, and/or small hail. Mostly all of
western Montana and central Idaho will be under the gun for
storms, so keep an eye to the sky Thursday afternoon and prepare
for a potentially stormy evening.

By Friday, the cold front will have exited the region, but
lingering easterly winds will develop in the wake of the low
pressure system still over the region. The will keep showers
possible through the day as well, though thunder chances will be
much less. Expect cooler temperatures and a breezy east wind to
affect western Montana, although cooler temps may also be felt
across north central Idaho as well.

The weekend looks rather quiet as high pressure rebuilds, helping
keep conditions dry and temperatures near normal for this time of
year. Forecast confidence takes a decided nose dive as we head
into next week, though there is just a little bit more consistency
with the latest suite of long range forecast models this morning.
Generally speaking, it appears the Northern Rockies will fall
under a fairly progressive NW flow aloft. This would support
temperature near normal temperatures and chances for afternoon
showers and/or thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...High pressure will continue to result in stable
conditions with generally light winds and limited cloud cover.
Any aviation impacts will likely only come from temperatures 10-15
degrees about average resulting in high density altitudes.



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