Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 011958
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
258 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN ISSUE IS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THE NEXT 24HRS AND WHETHER THIS
WILL EXACERBATE CURRENT RIVER FLOODING SITUATION.

SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF WRN LONGWAVE TROF WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE. LLVL JET MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL ENSURE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT EXPANDS OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...SFC LOW LIFTING INTO THE MID MS VLY WILL
DRAG ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BEHIND AND INDUCE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN.
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE THAT AREAS GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE BRUNT OF PCPN ACTIVITY WHERE
TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT ALONG THE FRONTOGENETIC BNDRY WILL BE
MOST PREVALENT ALONG WITH FAVORABLE PCPN EFFICIENCY. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE BOOSTED QPF AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AND AT THIS
POINT...SEEMS LIKELY THAT ADDITIONAL PROBLEMS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT
AND NEGATIVELY AFFECT SOME RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.

THURSDAY NIGHT...SEEMS TO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PD OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS SOMETIME AROUND MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING VORT
ENERGY. UPPER LYR QVECT ARE IMPLYING THAT POCKET OF DPVA WILL BE
ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAA FILTERING IN AND PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT.
THUS WILL ADD TOKEN 20S

AS FOR THE SVR THREAT TONIGHT...FAVORABLE ELEMENTS TO INDUCE SVR
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH OF THE CWA.

AS FOR TEMPS...BRUNT OF CAA FILTERING IN WILL BE FELT ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW/MID 50S.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

GOING EXTENDED PDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DRY FCST IN PLACE AND
WARMING TREND BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE FLOW TRANSITIONS  TO
NEAR ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD MOVED EAST OF ALL THREE TAF SITES AS
OF 18Z. ALL THREE TAF SITES WERE MVFR TO VFR. A COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
ALSO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY BETWEEN 23Z AND 03Z. A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COOLER AIR COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL ARRIVE AFTER 06Z BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE AND FOG.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MEYER



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