Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 312308
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
608 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO PCPN EVENT THAT IS LIKELY
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB FEATURES A MERIDIONAL PROGRESSIVE
FLOW. TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...WHILE A RIDGE STRETCHES FROM MEXICO UP
THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES SUNDAY. FLOW BECOMES MORE SPLIT BY THIS TIME
WITH ONE BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM DIVING SOUTH TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA...THEN THAT TURNS NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BRING MOISTURE AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTHWARD WITH FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM CONVEYOR BELT. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENERGY
IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JETSTREAM SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF
AN IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

VERY COOL LOW LEVEL AIR HAD SETTLED DOWN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. AT 20Z HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE STRETCHED
FROM ONTARIO SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A MAX OF 1036 MB
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS HIGH WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE EVEN MORE FOR SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES
FOR SUNDAY... WITH HIGHS REACHING AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S. THE
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...PCPN AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN DURING THE MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

PCPN WILL LINGER MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF
THIS PERIOD. LARGE SCALE FEATURES START TO HAVE LESS AGREEMENT TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MID WEEK...BUT THERE IS BETTER CONFIDENCE
LOCALLY UNTIL ABOUT THURSDAY. LOOK FOR GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND THAT DEPARTING SHORTWAVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
TRIED TO BRING A WEAK CLOSED LOW NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO AND
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY WITH SOME PCPN. HOWEVER...
THAT PCPN EVENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY...AND WAS DISCOUNTED FOR NOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS WERE MUCH DRIER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF FOR
OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.

SO...FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES THROUGH 02/00Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...CHERMOK



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