


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
Issued by NWS Upton, NY
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478 FXUS61 KOKX 152320 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 720 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary will remain near the region through the day on Wednesday before lifting to the north Wednesday night. A surface trough moves slowly across the region Thursday followed by a cold front late Thursday night into Friday morning. High pressure builds in Friday and moves offshore Saturday. A warm front moves through the region Sunday followed by a cold front Sunday night into Monday. High pressure builds to the north for Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Upper ridging builds into the region yielding dry conditions through the overnight. The atmosphere will remain quite moist though, leading to another round of low clouds and patchy fog overnight, especially eastern Long Island and across southern CT/Lower Hudson Valley. With plenty of cloud cover, low temperatures will only fall to around 70 in typically cooler locations and to the mid 70s in the New York City metro area. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Upper ridging moves offshore during the day as a shortwave approaches the region from the southwest before crossing the area Wednesday night. Low clouds and patchy fog to start the day should give way to gradual clearing by mid to late morning before clouds quickly return ahead of the approaching shortwave. The abundance of clouds may help limit temperatures somewhat, but with dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat index values will rise into the mid to upper 90s across the majority of the area. With hot and humid conditions continuing on Thursday, a Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire region with the exception of eastern Suffolk County. The approaching shortwave will spark scattered convection by late afternoon for locations west of NYC, gradually translating eastward across the rest of the area through the overnight hours. While the overall severe threat remains minimal, with precipitable water values at or above 2 inches any showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rain and localized flash flooding. The flooding threat may be locally maximized across portions of northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley given the wet antecedent conditions, but confidence in the location of any heavier rainfall remains too low for a Flood Watch at this time. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ***Key Points*** * Heat and humidity continues for Thursday with a Heat Advisory in effect for most of the region. A few locations across northeastern New Jersey may reach heat indices around 105 Thursday afternoon. * Showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday ahead of a cold front. Dry conditions return Friday and Saturday. The peak of the heat and humidity will likely occur during Thursday with heat indices across all but the Twin Forks of Long Island reaching into the upper 90s to 100 to 104. A few locations across northeastern New Jersey may peak at around 105, which is Heat Warning levels. However, with extensive cloud cover, and showers and thunderstorms becoming likely during the afternoon, confidence in reaching these heat index levels is low, therefore a Heat Warning was not issued at this time. Also, the timing of the cold front has increased, with the passage now late Thursday night into Friday morning. And with the quicker timing of the passage drier air will be moving into the region, so despite the continued heat, peak heat indices will likely fall below advisory levels. With high precipitable water values of 2 to 2.25 inches Thursday and showers and thunderstorms have the potential of producing heavy rainfall, with the threat of localized flooding. High pressure builds into the region for Friday and moves offshore Saturday. The cold front that moved through Friday morning remains south of the region, and possibly moves into a portion of the region Sunday before stalling as high pressure passes well to the north. Another cold front passes Sunday night into Monday, and may stall near the region into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak frontal boundary remains over the terminals into Wednesday before lifting late in the day and night. Mainly VFR. MVFR-IFR conditions possible overnight/early Wednesday morning, mainly east of the NYC metro terminals. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorm late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. S-SE winds weaken this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. S-SE winds 10 kt or less expected on Wednesday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... MVFR/IFR visibilities possible late tonight/early Wednesday, mainly before 12z. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Wednesday-Thursday: Mainly VFR. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible. MVFR or lower possible Wednesday night east of the NYC metro terminals. Friday-Saturday: Mainly VFR. Sunday: Showers/thunderstorms possible with a chance of MVFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Wednesday night, with winds generally remaining under 15 kt and seas remaining under 3 ft on the ocean. Winds and seas across the forecast waters remain below advisory levels Thursday. However, with an increasing and persistent southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front a few gusts may be near SCA and ocean seas will be building and may approach 5 feet late in the day. And by Thursday evening ocean seas, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, will build to SCA levels. With the passage of the cold front late Thursday night into early Friday morning seas will subside below advisory levels. Conditions will then remain below advisory the remainder of Friday through Sunday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Localized flash flooding is possible from scattered afternoon and evening convection on Wednesday. Hydrologic impacts are not expected Thursday through early next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a low rip current risk on Wednesday as a light southerly flow continues with around 2 foot waves. With a strengthening southwest flow Thursday, the risk for rip current development will be moderate. Waves will be 2 to around 3 feet. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for CTZ005- 009. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ069>075-176-178. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for NYZ067>075-078-080-176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 10 PM EDT Thursday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FEB/MET NEAR TERM...FEB SHORT TERM...FEB LONG TERM...MET AVIATION...DS MARINE...FEB/MET HYDROLOGY...FEB/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...