Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 210613
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
213 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WHERE SOME
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE BEING OBSERVED. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS IS
MOVING THROUGH NASSAU AND QUEENS COUNTIES WHERE A QUICK QUARTER
TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
WITH AREAS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE BY 07Z-08Z

LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE GIVEN WAA
TAKING PLACE...WITH NEAR 70 AT LGA...MID AND UPPER 60S MOST
ELSEWHERE...AND AROUND 60 WELL INLAND AND OVER THE PINE BARRENS OF
LONG ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY IN THE AM...WITH ISOLD THUNDER
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT...AS A WEAK NON-
TROPICAL LOW PASSES JUST TO THE SE OF LONG ISLAND.
HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THIS LOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ON
ITS EASTERN FLANK AND WELL OFFSHORE...SO DO NOT EXPECT HEAVY
RAINFALL ATTM. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY AFTERNOON VIA
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH WAA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE
LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES EXCEPT ERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT WHERE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART...AND IN THE HIGHER
INTERIOR ELEVATIONS.

PRECIP SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH THE COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW
CHANCE POP NW OF NYC AND SLIGHT CHANCE POP ELSEWHERE. AFTER FROPA
EXPECT SOME CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT...WITH LOWS GENERALLY 55-60
INLAND...AND 60-65 IN NYC METRO AND ALONG THE COAST.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACING
BEACHES SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT LIKELY JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF THE AREA
LATE MONDAY. AS OF NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST TO START
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND DOWNSLOPING
NORTHWESTERLY WIND AIDING IN DRYING THE LOWER LEVELS. HOWEVER...IF
THE FRONT SLOWS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT INTO THE TWIN FORKS EARLY
MONDAY.

A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COOL
CANADIAN AIR MASS BUILD IN MONDAY AND THEN REMAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...THEN A WARMING
TREND SETS UP FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COASTAL LOW TRACKS NE...JUST SE OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT.

MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDS IN RAIN SHOWERS ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
MORE WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. LOW PROB OF AN ISOLATED TSRA.

CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MVFR TO VFR THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING TO
MAINLY KGON. SLOWER IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
TERMINALS. KGON LIKELY REMAINS MVFR OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ISOLATED -SHRA POSSIBLE WITH COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT MAINLY VFR
CONDS EXPECTED AT WESTERN TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT
KISP/KBDR THIS EVENING...LIKELY MVFR OR LOWER AT KGON...UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LIGHT SE FLOW THIS MORNING...INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW
LIKELY BECOMES SW FOR KSWF IN AFT...POSSIBLY KEWR/KTEB. SW FLOW
THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT...VFR.
.MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS G20KT POSSIBLE...BECOMING N
MONDAY NIGHT.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WERE REMAINING IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE AND THE WIND OVER THE
WATERS HAS DIMINISHED FOR NOW. WITH THE APPROACH OF A COASTAL LOW
THE WIND WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN. NOT CONFIDENT THAT SEAS WILL
BUILD TO SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT AND HOLDING OFF ON AN ADVISORY.


BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SE ARRIVE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WILL CONTINUE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS MONDAY MORNING...AND SOME GUSTS
DURING MONDAY ON ALL THE FORECAST WATERS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES.
AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WIND...GUSTS...AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH WIND AND SEAS BELOW

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A LOW PASSES OFFSHORE...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FROPA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN DRY MON THROUGH SAT.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/MET
NEAR TERM...BC/GOODMAN/DS/MET
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...GOODMAN/MET
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/MET






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