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000
FXUS61 KOKX 110617
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
217 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADAR SHOWS PRECIP HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NE SO OVERNIGHT FCST IS
NOW DRY...BUT MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER ESPECIALLY OUT EAST.
WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
TOO QUICKLY...OR COULD RISE A LITTLE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
WITH WARM ADVECTION. INLAND TEMPERATURES FALL OFF LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON TUE...WHICH ALONG WITH
DOWNSLOPE WNW FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPS RISE TO 55-60 ACROSS NYC
METRO AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND...AND 50-55 TO THE NORTH...STILL
WARMER THAN A 00Z GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE BLEND.

CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY DURING TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE OH VALLEY. OVERRUNNING PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO
AREAS MAINLY NORTH/WEST OF NYC AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SPED THIS UP
ABOUT 3 HR AHEAD OF MODEL FCST WHICH IS USUALLY TOO LOW TO
INITIATE WAA PRECIP. PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS UNCERTAIN
AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON AMT OF EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
THEN LATE NIGHT WAA. FOR NOW EXPECT A WINTRY MIX AT THE
ONSET WELL INLAND AND ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN CT WHERE TEMPS
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING...AND ALL RAIN
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NYC METRO AND LONG ISLAND WHERE LOWS IN MOST
SPOTS SHOULD BE 40-45. FCST LOWS ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN A 12Z
GFS/NAM MOS COMPOSITE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MID WEEK
REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
PCPN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THOUGH NO WHERE TO THE EXTENT EXPECTED WITH THE MID WEEK
STORM.

12Z MODELS CONTINUE TRENDING WITH BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE REGION. DESPITE THE NEAR SIMILARITIES OF THE
TRACK...ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE EXISTS THAT STILL BRINGS INTO
QUESTION THE FORM OF PCPN EXPECTED INITIALLY WITH THE ONSET OF THE
PCPN. ALOFT...WATCHING TWO PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND THE
PHASING/INTERACTION...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO THE PATH OF THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW. LATEST THOUGHT IN RESPECT TO THE 12Z MODEL SUITE...LOW
FORMS AND BEGINS DEEPENING OVER MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH CENTER
PASSING THROUGH AROUND 00Z THURS. SOUNDINGS GENERALLY CONCUR ON THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA STARTING OFF AS LIGHT RAIN AND REMAINING AS
SUCH THROUGH AT LEAST WED EVENING. PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NY AND CT
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX AROUND DAY BREAK WED MORNING WITH
THE BEGINNING OF THE PCPN...THEN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY MID
MORNING. SURGE OF STRONG WAA WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
LOW HELPS TO KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING...WITH TEMPS STARTING OFF AT
LEAST IN THE MID 30S WED MORNING. ALL RAIN THEN WED AFTN AND WED
EVENING...WITH THE HEAVIEST PCPN ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. WILL CASUALLY MENTION A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER NEAR THE
COAST LATE WED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

NEXT UNCERTAINTY THEN IS HOW QUICKLY THE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND AND
MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE LOW...AND TRANSITIONING ANY PCPN
TO SNOW. GENERAL CONSENSUS WOULD SEE SNOW NORTH AND WEST IN THE CITY
BY MIDNIGHT...THEN PUSHING TO THE EAST BY 12Z THURS. HOWEVER...BY
THE TIME THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN NEAR THE CITY AND ON EAST...COULD
SEE THE PCPN TAPERING OFF. WITH THIS TIMING 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER
INTERIOR REGIONS IS PSBL...WITH 1 INCH OR LESS AT THE COAST...SO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR INTERIOR AREAS. HAVE
SLIGHT CHC POPS IN FOR THE AFTN OVER EASTERN AREAS...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING ALL PCPN SHOULD CLEAR BY 18Z THURS. ANOTHER THING TO
WATCH ON THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASING WINDS. AS THE LLJ SETS UP
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KT...COULD SEE
STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35
AND 45 MPH POSSIBLE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MAIN STORY FOR THIS
TIME FRAME WILL BE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 20 BELOW THURS NIGHT.
THE MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE AXIS OF THE HIGH
PUSHES EAST...RETURNING TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...DRAGGING ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH BY MID DAY
SATURDAY. SOME QUESTION ON THE EXTENT OF PCPN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
THE VERY DRY AIR MASS AS THE RESULT OF THE HIGH THURS/FRI WILL BE
HARD TO OVERCOME. BETTER FORCING WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ALSO
LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE REGION...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHC
WORDING FOR NOW. DRY WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...CLEARING THE EASTERNMOST TERMINAL KGON BY 09Z. S-SW WINDS
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE W-NW BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FLOW WILL BE
RIGHT AROUND 310 FROM MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON AT 7 TO 10
KT...BEFORE BACKING A BIT BY LATE AFT TO THE W. AN OCCASIONAL GUST
UP TO 15 KT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFT
HOURS. RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE EVE WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE 06Z TO 12Z TUE TIMEFRAME FOR
THE 30H TAFS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-WED NIGHT...SUB-VFR LIKELY IN RA. ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT
GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20 KT LATE WED AFTN-EVE THEN W-NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KT GUSTING UP TO 35 KT LATER WED NIGHT.
.THU...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW G30-40KT.
.FRI...VFR.
.SAT...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
FLOW HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HOWEVER WIND
AND GUSTS ARE LIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
AS GRADIENT INCREASES LATE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT...WSW FLOW 15-20 KT TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH
OCEAN SEAS TO 5-6 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING PER
WAVEWATCH...AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT AS WELL.
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACHING
LOW. COULD SEE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY 18Z WED...
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF 25 KT GUSTS ON ALL THE WATERS BY WED
EVENING. INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF GALES BEING REACHED BY THU
MORNING AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN IF NOT ALL WATERS...AND LASTING
THROUGH THE DAY ON THU. WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THU NIGHT INTO
FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS.

SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRI MORNING...WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. INCREASING FLOW
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT COULD BRING OCNL 25 KT GUSTS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS AND 5 FT SEAS ON SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A STORM SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR THE REGION.
BASIN AVG QPF CALLS FOR 0.75 TO 1.25 INCH...HIGHEST NORTH/WEST.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER THAT SERVES THE NEW YORK CITY
METROPOLITAN AREA REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE DUE TO RADIO FREQUENCY
INTERFERENCE WITH THE U.S COAST GUARD TRANSMITTER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FOLLOWING PUBLIC INFORMATION
STATEMENT (ALL LOWER CASE):
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/OKX/PRODUCTS/STATIC.TXT

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ353.

&&

$$