Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 240915
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
215 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers and a few minor thunderstorms will
continue for the northern mountains today as a cold front exits
the region. Cool and breezy weather is expected today behind the
cold front. Temperatures will rebound by the weekend and be
accompanied by dry conditions. Hot weather will return to the area
on Sunday and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday: The Inland Northwest will find waning
shower chances, breezy conditions and cool temperatures. Over the
next 24-hours an upper low centered over north Washington tracks
toward the Canadian Prairies. The low, and a weakening deformation
axis wrapped around it, will provide continued shower chances
across the Cascades and northern mountains. Some showers may also
impact the Highway 2 and I-90 corridor, from the Waterville
Plateau into the central Panhandle. However as the low continues
to shift northeast and drier air and large-scale subsidence moves
in behind it, shower chances will begin retreat toward the Cascade
crest and shift further into the northeast Washington and northern
Panhandle mountains and dissipate this afternoon and evening. With
a lack of significant instability, the threat of thunder will be
minimal. A modest pressure gradient and good mixing this afternoon
with the strong subsidence will produce breezy conditions through
the day. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph will be common from Chelan
county east through the Spokane area and Palouse. Winds are
expected to abate through the evening, particularly past 8 pm or
so. As for temperatures, readings will be below normal. Regional
850mb temperatures under the low range from the upper single
digits in the Cascades to the lower teens toward the Panhandle.
This supports high temperatures some 10-15 degree below average.
This means many areas, outside of the deeper Columbia Basin and
L-C Valley, will only see highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.
Tonight and Friday the region transitions to a more zonal flow. A
secondary mid-level disturbance slips onshore overnight into
Friday morning, but the brunt of the lift remains north of the
Canadian border. So look for dry weather and a few clouds. Winds
will be pick up again in the afternoon as the gradients tighten
again slightly with the northern wave and increased mixing, but
speeds will be relatively lower. A few gusts between 15 to 20 mph
will be possible in the afternoon. Temperatures will remain on the
cool side of average, but overall values look about 5 degrees
milder as compared to Thursday. /J. Cote`

Friday night through Wednesday...Latest medium range GFS and ECMWF
guidance is in remarkably good agreement in depicting a return to
torrid dog-day summer conditions through the extended period. A
strong 4 corners upper high will build into the region...becoming
progressively stronger each day through Monday before stabilizing.
this will allow the establishment of a strong low level thermal
trough over the Columbia Basin which will promote hot days and
sultry overnights through Wednesday. On or about Monday a shot of
monsoonal moisture may side-swipe the southeastern zones and Idaho
Panhandle with a small threat of thunderstorms...but this is a low
confidence forecast at this point. Confidence is high that the
forecast area will return to a dry and sunny above normal/hot
stretch of summer weather this weekend through the middle of next
week. /Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Unstable post frontal air mass will foster scattered
showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms possible
across the mountains of northern WA and north Idaho tonight and
into Thursday. Gusty winds will diminish somewhat overnight. If
winds become light, MVFR cigs are possible at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE
generally between 10z-14Z. Lower confidence in lowering cigs for
KPUW/KEAT. Expect dry conditions and winds 12 kts or less after
03Z Friday. /EK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  50  76  54  84  59 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  67  49  74  48  82  54 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        69  46  75  44  83  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       78  55  83  55  91  61 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       70  49  78  48  87  53 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      65  47  72  47  81  50 /  40  10   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        64  49  72  49  81  56 /  30  10   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     76  54  83  53  89  60 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      73  57  82  60  87  65 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  52  82  53  88  58 /  20  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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