Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 291141
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
441 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS....
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of
high pressure takes control. A dry and increasingly hot weather
pattern will persist through the weekend. The only chance of
precipitation in the near future will be a small chance of
thunderstorms over extreme southeast Washington and north-
central Idaho late this weekend and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday....
High pressure is currently anchored off the northern California
coast. This ridge will continue to build and expand over the next
several days...bringing hot and dry conditions to the Inland
Northwest. The other large scale feature worth mentioning is a
very broad upper level low over Alaska. Multiple shortwaves
rotating around this massive feature are bring clouds and
precipitation to BC. The southern most extent of these shortwaves
are just missing Washington and Idaho. Over time, the ridge of
high pressure will win out...shoving those shortwaves northward
leaving the Inland Northwest in a dry and hot pattern.

Dew point depressions around the region early this morning are
high enough that fog won`t be an issue like it was for a few north
WA and ID valleys this morning. Skies will remain mostly clear
through Thursday with temperatures rising about 5-7 degrees each
day. This will bring afternoon highs back to the mid 90s for most
locations with a few 100s possible in the hottest locations like
Lewiston and Wenatchee. Winds are not expected to be a concern so
no fire weather highlights expected until possibly later in the
week./AB

Thursday night through Saturday...Model agreement and run- to-
run consistency is good through Saturday. High confidence exists
of a dry and increasingly hot period across the region as a flat
upper level ridge dominates the flow regime. Conditions will be
dry but winds will be generally light except for the possibility
of local breezy conditions near the cascade gaps each evening.

Saturday night through Tuesday...Overall the flow regime remains
flat and ridgy over the forecast area but models are beginning to
reach a consensus featuring a trough digging off the Pacific coast
during this period. This pattern would tend to promote continued
hot conditions...but this flow could include a shifting of the
surface thermal trough to the east allowing temperatures to
stabilize and stop rising each day...peaking out and maintaining
general mid 90s and a few 100s in the lower elevations through
early next week with correspondingly warm and sultry overnight
periods.

The main uncertainty during this period is the presence of
monsoonal moisture creeping into the region from the south and
providing fuel for thunderstorms especially over the Idaho
panhandle with this risk increasing after Sunday and through
early next week. The GFS is most aggressive with this potential
but even so the moisture field is generally above 12-15Kft with no
obvious trigger apparent at this time. The EC model downplays this
threat and keeps the moisture axis farther to the south. Models
are notoriously poor at handling these moisture field this far out
in the forecast period and confidence is low of any threat...still
it is worth mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms early next
week given the time of year and climatological pattern
recognition. Otherwise the only fire weather concerns will be the
continued potential for locally breezy gap winds each evening.
/Fugazzi


&&

.AVIATION...
1Z TAFS: Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions expected through
Wednesday night. Light diurnal and terrain driven winds will also
prevail. /AB


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        87  61  94  64  97  64 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  86  57  93  59  95  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        87  53  94  57  96  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       95  63 101  68 104  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       89  55  95  57  99  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      83  51  89  52  93  51 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        85  54  91  57  95  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     94  59  99  62 101  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      95  67 100  70 101  70 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           93  59  98  62 101  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$



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