Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 301125
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
425 AM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the forecast area today through
Wednesday with warmer and drier weather. A weak and fairly dry
cold front will pass through late Wednesday and allow for more
breezy conditions late Wednesday afternoon and evening with cooler
temperatures on Thursday. The warmest temperatures are expected
over the weekend with very hot readings possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday night: Expect mild and drier weather. The
remains of the upper level trough that brought the cool, breezy
and somewhat showery conditions, will continue to pivot east into
Montana. This will allow a ridge of high pressure to build into
the Pacific NW. With the upper ridge axis still off the west
coast, the upper steering flow will be out of the north-northwest.
Some upslope cumulus possible over the Panhandle mountains and
near the Cascade crest, yet instability will be limited and not
expecting shower activity this afternoon or evening. Temperatures
will be similar if not slightly warmer than experienced on Sunday.
Winds will be noticeably lighter, out of the northwest to west and
less than 15 mph by the afternoon hours. For tonight into Tuesday
night, the ridge axis will shift into Washington and high level
cirrus will increase across the north. Low levels will remain dry
and the warming will continue. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday
will be about 5 degrees warmer, while overnight lows will
experience the warming at the mid and upper slopes in addition to
the exposed lowlands under light easterly winds. /rfox.

Wednesday through Monday: Wednesday and Thursday will be the
cooler (but still above normal) days before another possible
substantial warmup by the weekend. The biggest challenge through
Thursday will be determining the areal coverage of pcpn chances.
The SW-to-NE oriented frontal boundary moving into NW Wa and Srn
BC does not have a whole lot of dynamical support to generate a
significant pcpn threat... and the sub-cloud dry lyr is moderately
deep. Confidence is not great, however, given the large differences
in pwat values associated with the moisture plume. The NAM has the
more rich moisture fetch and generates the most pcpn. Sfc-based
instability in modest at best. That said, we only increased pcpn
amnts slightly... limiting most of it to the Cascades. We`ll also
watch the Camas Prairie and Lewiston region for the potential of
nocturnal showers Wed Nt. Strong upper ridging then re-
establishes itself over the Pac Nw into the weekend with 850mb
temperatures in the mid 20`s C... sufficient under normal summer
clear skies to produce close to triple digit high temps. But all
model guidance also shows cloud cover increasing, with the ECMWF
and NAM even generating late day convective pcpn. We trended
toward "HOT" for Sunday given these above mentioned offsetting
factors. Cooler Monday as the ridge continues to weaken... with a
higher threat of pcpn. bz

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: Expect lighter winds today as high pressure settles into
the area. VFR conditions are anticipated at all the TAF sites. May
have some lingering smoke issues between KGEG-KMWH early this
morning with the light winds and low level inversions, but
confidence is low it will restrict visibilities. Some ac/high
cumulus are possible over the moutnains, but no shower activity is
expected./rfox.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        70  46  77  51  82  55 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  71  43  76  47  81  54 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        68  42  75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       76  48  81  52  86  59 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       75  43  80  46  84  51 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      70  40  75  42  79  49 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        66  43  75  44  78  50 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     77  46  82  50  87  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      76  51  81  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           76  47  81  49  86  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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