Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 270723
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather can be expected until late Sunday as high
pressure slides across the Upper Ohio Valley Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major alterations were needed for the morning update as dry high
pressure will build over the region for the near term period. With
warm advection on the northern flank of strong SE CONUS ridge,
expect high temperatures about 10 degrees above the averages. For
tonight, some adjustments were completed to the dewpoint and
temperature prog as superblend guidance indicated a more aggressive
moisture return than was prudent for the relatively weak flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A shortwave crossing the northern Great Lakes is projected to begin
eroding the aforementioned ridge late Sunday. Model depictions of
that system and the degree of erosion have/are not consistent, so
have generally persisted with Sunday afternoon thunderstorm
chances with better focus north of Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, confidence
that a cooling of the airmass and a change of upper flow will get underway
for Monday and Tuesday is good; so, the forecast will feature diurnally-
supported slight to chance precip probability with continued, but
fading above-average warmth, all in association with expectations
of the southward sagging front.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A change in flow pattern is indicated for the latter half of the
week with NAEFS and the latest GFS and ECMWF in general agreement
on the formation of a fairly amplified Eastern CONUS trough.
Temperatures under the projected trough look to be at least 10
degrees under this weekends readings, i.e. at or a few degrees
below the averages under northwest flow aloft. Upper precip
support with the main cold front is not model-synced so POPS do
not exceed the chance category for the Wednesday passage.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Other than patchy MVFR fog around dawn, high pressure should
maintain VFR conditions and light wind through the period.

.OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Restrictions are possible with the approach and passage of a cold
front Sunday through Monday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
15/07



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