Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 292308
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
708 PM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will bring rain to our region for the
rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Adjustments to the overnight forecast were made to shift main
areas of precipitation to the southwest over southwestern PA and eastern
OH counties as focus for further activity is expected to remain in
the vicinity of the occlusion. This is supported by recent hi-res
model output. Another 1-1.5 inches will be possible overnight over
eastern Ohio/ southwest PA but rain rates are expected to be
manageable and overall totals will remain below FFG values so no
additional watches are planned at this time. The current FF watch
will be maintained for the time being for Garrett, Preston, and
Tucker counties given the observed 2-3 inches of rainfall over
the past 24 hours and continued potential for higher rates as we
head into the night. Will address this again later this evening as
things evolve.

Strong downslope winds will be possible along the western slopes
of the ridges in the Morgantown-to-Latrobe vicinities with strong
perpendicular component, ridgetop inversion, and negative wind
shear meeting critical value thresholds. Latest model soundings
and potential temperature / component-along wind cross sections
support this idea as well. Wind orientation and degraded mixing
still raises uncertainty but given the magnitude and projected
height of the low level jet the wind advisory will remain in
effect through mid Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers and gusty wind will linger into Saturday as the nearly
stationary mature low pressure system gradually fills.

As the low dislodges and slowly creeps northward Saturday, rain
will become increasingly scattered. No real changes were made for
this forecast period other than to tweak POPs and temperature
based on Superblend guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Building high pressure is forecast to return drier and warmer
weather as the week progresses. Superblend guidance, tweaked for
POP continuity, was also used for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periodic restrictions will be ongoing overnight as bands of
showers move over sites, with variable conditions in and out of
the bands. In general deeper moisture in place at KDUJ where IFR
should remain in place through much of the period. Elsewhere,
expect flight categories to bounce mainly MVFR with occasional VFR
as showers pass over. Conditions will improve to VFR on Friday as
drier air is wrapped into and around the upper low. Strengthening
pressure gradient will strengthen winds with gusts over 20kts most
locations through the afternoon, and possible gust toward 30kts at
KLBE in downslope..


.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered restrictions can be expected into Monday as the upper
level low lingers, then slowly lifts north of the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Friday FOR MDZ001.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR MDZ001.
OH...None.
PA...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Friday FOR PAZ073>076.
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EDT Friday FOR WVZ510>514.
     Flash Flood Watch through Friday afternoon FOR WVZ512>514.

&&

$$


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