Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 220907
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
407 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A series of shortwaves will move through the area today in the
strong southwest flow aloft. This will bring another round of
widespread rain to the region, most of which will fall during
the morning and early afternoon hours. This wave will pull
warmer air northward this morning. This will allow locations
close to or at freezing to warm, eliminating the freezing
rain/snow potential by mid to late morning.

More seasonal temperatures are expected today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a brief dry spell tonight, rain will move back in from
the southwest on Friday, as the next upper level wave crosses
the region, and a surface warm front stretches across the area.
This boundary will be the focus of the rainfall through Friday,
as models are showing a well defined area of low-level moisture
convergence along the front. The aforementioned large scale
ascent will assist in increasing rainfall intensity late Friday
morning through the afternoon hours. Rain is expected to
dissipate Friday evening and into the overnight hours, as
another shortwave trough will drive the stalled boundary
southeastward. This will allow for a brief reprieve Friday night
before another round of upper level waves brings more rain to
the region on Saturday. There will be hydrologic concerns
through the entire period.

Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, well above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will move across the western Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday and sweep a cold front across the Ohio Valley,
providing some definitive clearing for the local area. This
should allow for a dry forecast from Sunday night through
Wednesday. One more day of temperatures in the 60s can be
expected on Sunday, before temperatures fall to slightly above
normal values for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain and deterioration to MVFR and eventual IFR is expected.
Sfc temperatures are expected to drop below freezing N of I 80,
where freezing rain is expected. FZRA should change back to rain
with warming temperatures by this aftn.

The rain should taper off from W-E during the aftn, with some
limited improvement to low MVFR possible late.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series
of crossing low pressure areas.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ039>041-
     048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ014-016-
     020>023-029-031-073>076.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ007>009-015-016.
WV...Flood Watch until 4 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ001>004-012.

&&

$$


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