Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 261435
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1035 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low pressure will maintain cooler temperature and a periodic
shower chance for the first half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
No major updates needed at this time as the forecast remains on
track.


Previous...
A weak lead shortwave is spawning some showers in lee of Lake
Erie early this morning. Another, albeit deeper trough is projected
across the Great Lakes this afternoon. Improved lapse rates and
falling convective thresholds under cooling mid levels all
support escalating precip probability with the surface
reinforcing front, but with inhibitions via moisture paucity.
No major changes were thus needed to the ongoing forecast of
eventual scattered showers and a slight thunderstorm chance
with more numerous convection over the I 80 corridor.

Cold advection will hold temperatures about 10 degrees under the
averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold troughing will persist through Tuesday but changes are
projected to ensue thereafter with moderating temperatures
as flow aloft flattens/ridges in response to a trough digging
across Western Canada. Warmth and humidity are forecast to enhance
via southerly boundary layer flow as that trough progresses over
the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest, and precip chances escalate
as ejected energy slides over the Lakes and spawns convection by
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned trough/associated cold front is projected across
the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Regions next weekend. Precip is
thus likely but temperature in the wake of the system is
expected to remain near the seasonal averages given the lack of
amplitude in the progged flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR forecast through the period. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Currently only
have enough confidence to include vicinity. Will keep the risk
for thunder at FKL and DUJ. For the ports south of PIT, will not
have any mention of precip. Winds will increase by late morning
or early afternoon as mixing heights rise. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph
are possible.

.OUTLOOK...
Brief restrictions are possible with showers and scattered
storms Tuesday with the passage of the upper trough axis.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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