Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 231137 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
437 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE
DECREASED OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. IR SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE
COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER MODELS
INDICATE THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND AN OFFSHORE UPPER
LEVEL LOW INTO EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP MOIST UNSTABLE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND
WASHINGTON...THEN SPREAD EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON THIS EVENING...WITH DIMINISHING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO THE SURFACE. A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LESS
WIND. 76

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEST FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AS A FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS.  FLOW
WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO BE SOUTHERLY...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS DON`T PUT OUT
TO MUCH QPF WITH THIS MOISTURE...SO HAVE ONLY GONE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  RIGHT NOW THE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IS
OVER CENTRAL OREGON ON MONDAY AND WILL SPREAD TO NORTHEAST OREGON AS
WELL TUESDAY ONWARD.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  WEBER

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER FOR
ALL TAF SITES.  WITH CONVECTION AS EARLY AS 18Z FOR THE WESTERN TAF
SITES.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FURTHER INLAND TODAY.
FORCING ALONG WITH SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18Z-03Z.  TAF SITES WILL
BE BREEZY WITH WINDS 10-15KTS GUSTING 20-25KTS.  CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER 06Z AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE SCATTERED...AND THE
FLOW SHIFTS MORE WESTERLY...AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.  WEBER

&&

...FIRE WX...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE WETTING RAIN...ABUNDANT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH COULD START NEW FIRES IN VERY DRY FUELS.
STORMS HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL OREGON AND THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN
SOME PLACES. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
RED FLAG WARNINGS THEREFORE REMAIN IN EFFECT.  COBB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  82  53  79  51 /  40  30  10   0
ALW  85  57  78  57 /  40  30  10   0
PSC  86  59  82  54 /  30  30  10   0
YKM  78  53  78  54 /  50  30  10  10
HRI  84  56  80  53 /  30  20  10   0
ELN  75  51  74  52 /  60  30  10  10
RDM  74  38  74  39 /  40  20   0  10
LGD  83  50  72  45 /  40  30  10   0
GCD  82  49  75  48 /  30  20   0   0
DLS  74  57  77  56 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     ORZ041-044-049-050-502-503-505>508-510.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON ORZ509-511.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     WAZ024-026>030-520-521.

&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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