Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 230348
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1148 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Large high pressure across the upper Great Lakes region this
evening will slide southeast and crest over our region on Thursday.
A warm front will lift to our northwest Friday, while a backdoor
cold front pushes through the area Saturday. This front is
forecast to stall near the southern portions of the area or just
to our south into early next week. A couple of low pressure
systems may form along the boundary and move eastward as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clear skies on tap as high pressure builds in from the west.
Winds continue to diminish through the overnight.

No significant changes to forecast, but will make some tweaks
based on latest surface obs. Strong radiational cooling
conditions likely late in the overnight which could result in
temps possibly a few degrees colder than forecast.

We could get close to record lows (see climate section below).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
High will pass almost directly overhead leading to light and
variable winds for much of the region. Despite the sunny
conditions, temperatures will remain 10 to 15 degrees below
normal as the continental Polar air mass will be entrenched over
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will have moved east of the area by Thursday night. A
warm front will inch towards the area from the west causing clouds
to increase over the region. Rains and some mixed precipitation will
arrive across the far N/W Friday morning. The models seem to be a
bit slower with the arrival time, and this could make the difference
in p-type with even a few hours later favoring more rain over mixed.
We will continue with a mention of some sleet/freezing rain attm.
Other than that, mostly rain N/W with low likely pops by afternoon
over the srn Poconos. Limited clouds/precip S/E with temperatures
near 60 degrees by afternoon.

The weekend looks to be a split with Sat being the better weather
day and Sunday looking rather wet. The front will remain to the
north Sat with only small chc or slgt chc pops across the far north.
The front then sags southward Sunday while low pressure moves along
it and approaches from the West. We will carry low likely pops in
most areas Sunday. Temperatures well above normal Saturday with 60s
north and low 70s South/east. Readings closer to normal Sunday.

Unsettled conditions early next week with an upper low and sfc front
lingering across the area.  We will carry chc pops for both Monday
ad Tuesday with this fcst. The north/west counties will be favored
for the better chcs for measurable rain. Temperatures early next
week should remain a little above normal for late March.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR through the TAF period with unlimited CIGs/VSBYs.

NW winds less than 10 KT in most locations, but winds will
diminish to less than 10 KT where winds are still 15-20 KT with
gusts to 25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

Thu night...In general VFR. Low clouds psbl far NW late.
Fri...VFR most areas but restrictions psbl with rain and a
      chance for sleet and freezing rain far N/W Fri morning.
Fri night and Sat...mostly VFR.
Sat night thru Monday...Showers. restrictions for CIG and VSBY
      psbl.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions on S DE Bay, DE ocean waters, and NJ ocean waters
through Thursday morning. There is a chance for light freezing
spray through Thursday morning. Still considerable uncertainty
as by the time the air temperature gets cold enough to support
freezing spray, winds will be dropping off.

OUTLOOK...

Thursday night...sub-SCA conditions expected.
Fri-Fri night...SCA conditions likely on the ocean. Sub-SCA on
   Del. Bay. Showers mostly north.
Sat-Sat night...Conditions diminishing below SCA conditions.
Sun-Mon...SCA expected on the Ocean. Sub- SCA on Del Bay. Showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
One or 2 of the following are vulnerable record equaling lows
Thursday morning March 23, primarily ABE. Others are listed for
reference

ACY-13 1875

PHL-14 1885, 1875

ILG-14 1934

ABE-13 1934

TTN-13 1934

GED-16 1959

RDG-14 1906

MPO- minus 8 1912

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/O`Hara
Near Term...Drag/Johnson/MPS
Short Term...Johnson
Long Term...O`Hara
Aviation...Drag/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Drag/Johnson/O`Hara
Climate...



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