Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KPHI 120238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE TO
THE EAST FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE ARE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND NOW EXPECT A MAINLY
CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT. WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP.
SHOULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO IN PARTS OF E PA RADIATIORS PER GFS 2M
TEMPS. WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT LATE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY, THEN INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE JAMES
BAY ARCTIC VORTEX DIVING SEWD...MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS TURN SW AND THE UNSTABLE AND MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES OVER THE STILL OPEN WATERS OF THE BAYS MAY YIELD
SOME BAY EFFECT FLURRIES LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE, SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE WAA PATTERN IN PA COULD DEVELOP FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE POCONOS NEAR 5 PM. SW WIND.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/11 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL USHER
IN THE COLD WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH THE TEENS IN
MOST AREAS AND REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
TEENS NORTH AND LOW 20S SOUTH. WIND CHILL VALUES MUCH OF THE DAY
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS NORTH. WE HAVE
ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR THE SRN POCONOS AND NW NJ FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE COLDEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA.
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE -25 TO -30 DEGREES. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA / NRN NJ
SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE  MON AND THEN TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE/WED. THESE WARMER TEMPS WILL ARRIVE AT THE SAME TIME AS A WET
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SW. PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY
BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. MANY OF THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH OF A WARM-UP SO THAT MOST
OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN. IT LOOKS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF
THE PRECIPITATION INITIALLY COULD BE SNOW OR SOME SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. WE WILL JUST HAVE RAIN/SNOW IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW WITH LIMITED
CONFID IN PLACEMENT OF ANY FROZEN PCPN.

THE STORM WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION NEXT WED AND MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY AND LAST INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THRU THE TAF PD WITH HIGH PRES. GUID SUGGESTS THERE CUD
BE A SNOW SHOWER FRI AFTN W THAT CUD LWR VSBYS/CIGS AT KRDG AND
KABE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WIND WILL BECOME MORE SWLY, AND WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT ONCE IT DECREASES OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL
LOWER AND THICKEN ON FRI


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE DAY THEN BECOMING MVFR AND
IFR BY EVENING WITH RAIN AND SNOW.

TUESDAY...WIDESPREAD LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOWERED GLW ON DEL BAY AND REPLACED WITH SCA. SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME FURTHER, DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THINGS COME
DOWN.

LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS OCCURRING AND CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED ON
THE BAY AS WELL AS THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY NO HEADLINE! A GOOD DAY TO FINISH UP ANY MARINE RELATED ACTIVITY.

OUTLOOK...
GALES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL DECREASE BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS FOR AWHILE SUNDAY BEFORE
RETURNING TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. MORE SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES
OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM
SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY
THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE 00Z/7
OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING OR
EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE NOTE... GUIDANCE IN PART IS BEING CLIMO BIASED HIGHER THAN
WHAT THE ONCOMING GFS/ECMWF LITERAL AIRMASS AND 2M TEMPS ARE INDICATING
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE URBAN AREAS SHOULD
BE ABOUT 25 COLDER THAN NORMAL. THAT MEANS GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR PHL
OF 5 AND 6 DEGREES APPEAR TOO WARM...ESPECIALLY WITH A NORMAL
PHILADELPHIA LOW ON SUNDAY OF 28.

HAVE SEEN THE 12Z/11 2M TEMPS FOR PHL...1 ABOVE RANGING DOWN TO
-11 AT KMPO AND AM LIKING THOSE VALUES AS WITHIN 2F OF THE
UPCOMING REALITY.

RECORD LOW MAX`S CAN ONLY OCCUR FOR THIS EVENT ON SUNDAY THE
14TH, IF THEN.  THOSE HAVE BEEN ADDED RECENTLY BELOW.

SITE 2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH ----RER LOW MAX
---------------------- --------------------

ABE             8                         -1 IN 1979     14-1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979     13-1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979     14-1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979     13-1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.