Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 240852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
452 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY BRINGING SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PEACEFUL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL
THE DRIVING FORCE KEEPING US DRY WITH A WARMING TREND COMMENCING.
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TODAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING MOISTURE BRING US BACK TO A TYPICAL LATE MAY DAY.
UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER- 40S TO LOW- 50S WHICH
IS WHAT WILL BE ADVECTING INTO OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SURGE SHOULD BE ABATED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING, LIKE THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH WE DO NOT EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO DROP TO THE
LEVELS EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STILL HAVE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER- 20S TO LOW-30S TODAY.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAD A BETTER THERMAL INITIALIZATION THIS
MORNING THAN YESTERDAY SO USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE MET/MAV FOR
HIGHS TODAY...RIGHT AROUND 80F FOR MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COASTLINE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AIRMASS MODIFICATION CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPPING A BIT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS THE SURFACE
FLOW TO BACK A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-WEST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE AMPLE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO
ALLOW FOR A DRY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD AND WHILE THE BEST
FORCING/LIFT STILL REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION. MORE MID AND
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE TONIGHT. AGAIN A SIMPLE BLEND OF
THE MET/MAVMOS LOOKED GOOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN US...ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOW
LEVEL FLOW COMING NORTH FROM THE SOUTHEAST US AND ADJACENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 850
HPA TEMPS REACHING AROUND 16-17 DEG C. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS WILL SEE THE FIRST 90 DEG F READING OF THE SEASON...ALTHO
THE VARIOUS MOS GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. BY THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SUPPRESSED
AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS MAY HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT...BUT DEWPTS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S.

THE RIDGE AXIS ALOFT WILL ALSO TEND TO DIVERT WEATHER SYSTEMS
COMING OUT OF THE PLAINS NWD INTO THE GRTLKS AND CANADA. THE FCST
HAS NO PRECIP FOR MON AND JUST A SLGT CHANCE FAR N/W ON TUE. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A WEAK TROF APPROACHING THE FCST AREA ON WED
AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY AFTN/EVE SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON THOSE DAYS WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS N/W OF PHL. SOME AFTN INSTBY IS FCST ON BOTH DAYS.

FOR NOW WE HAVE ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY ALTHO
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SITN TO DEVIATE FROM CLIMO IS NOT VERY STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TODAY - TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND INCREASE UPWARDS
OF 10-12 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS OUR EASTERN TERMINALS
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND FIELD EXPECTED. WINDS DECREASE
TONIGHT BUT BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
COMMENCES BY THIS AFTERNOON. GRADIENT WINDS TOP OFF CLOSE TO 20
KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS...MOSTLY THE NORTHERN WATERS...BUT WITH
THE LACK OF MIXING DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLDER WATERS AND
UPWELLING ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT SW WINDS
OVER THE COAST WATERS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE NJ SHORE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE NEXT WEEK. THIS PLUS WATER TEMPS CONTINUING
ABOVE NORMAL IS NOT GOOD FOR SAFETY. ONCE IT TURNS HOT AND BEACHES
ARE UNGUARDED, SWIMMERS MAY TAKE CHANCES AT UNGUARDED LOCATIONS.
BE SMART ABOUT ANY SWIMMING EARLY THIS SEASON.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK FOR MT HOLLY IS JUNE 7-13 WITH PSAS
VIA PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, NOAA WEATHER
RADIO AND ANY MEDIA INTERVIEWS DESIRED (CONTACT OFFICE).

FOR RIP CURRENTS: DESPITE ANTICIPATED PROJECTIONS OF LOW OR
MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, EARLY SEASON
FATALITIES OCCUR WHEN SWIMMING AT UNGUARDED TIMES/LOCATIONS.
WEAKER SWIMMERS OR SWIMMING IN AREAS WHERE RIP CURRENTS ARE
STRONGER (JETTIES) CAN QUICKLY BECOME LIFE THREATENING. WHEN
TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE NOT NEARBY, TIMELY RESCUE IS MUCH LESS
LIKELY. LETS GET THROUGH THE MONTH OF MAY WITH ALL SWIMMERS SAFE!

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS MESSAGE: FOR ULTIMATE SAFETY, ALWAYS SWIM
IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS! THANK YOU!

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/HEAVENER
MARINE...AMC/HEAVENER
RIP CURRENTS...


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