Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 240759
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
159 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH IS CARVING OUT AROUND
140W SIGNALING AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. MODELS SHOW THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN THE MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING TO 6500 TO 7000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PEAKS OF
THE SAWTOOTHS MAY SEE ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS TREND A BIT DRIER STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW...BUT ARE TRYING TO DRIVE ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED PERIODS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN AROUND
KSUN...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL
PUSH LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
RIDGE TOPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. STRONG SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY HIGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALL TO AROUND 6000FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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