Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
FXUS65 KPIH 010850
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
150 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. Northwest flow over eastern
Idaho will keep some snow showers going mainly in the central
mountains and eastern highlands. A few strays may linger this
morning across the south central highlands and also along the
benches from Pocatello to Idaho Falls. Amounts today will be
fairly light. Winds really slacked off overnight, but expect them
to make another appearance this afternoon. Don`t expect them to be
as strong as yesterday, but we could still see some blowing and
drifting. Right now, advisories aren`t warranted but the day
shift may need to adjust on the fly like Tuesday. High pressure
builds north tomorrow and Friday. It won`t make make too much
progress as the next storm offshore pushes east and begins
switching the back from the southwest late in the day. The chance
of snow showers quickly dwindles and shifts to around Island Park.
Winds will remain a bit breezy at ridgetop and also where south
gap winds are maximized. There could be some stratus across
portions of the Snake Plain and Upper Snake Highlands tonight and
Thursday night. Data suggests under the ridge weak inversions
develop that would put some credence in that idea.
The big story of course will be rapidly warming temperatures.
Overnight lows should stay below freezing even with the inversion,
although that will have to be followed. Sometimes the models way
underforecast temperatures within that layer. Highs will push
rapidly into the upper 30s and 40s at lower elevations by Friday.
The only places that MAY stay at/below freezing are across the
Arco Desert and higher ridgelines across the central mountains and
along the Divide. Unfortunately, that means snowmelt and the
potential for more flooding returns. Keyes
.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday.
Next system arrives by Saturday. Looks like a fairly moist system
for the central Idaho mountains. Models still uncertain in bringing
an initial wave of light moisture through eastern Idaho on Saturday.
But looks like a good chance for widespread precipitation Sunday
into Sunday night as a cold front moves through the region. This is
a relatively warm system with snow levels 5000-5500 feet. Models in
quite a bit of disagreement leading into early next week resulting
in a low confidence forecast for Monday through Wednesday. GFS keeps
a moist somewhat snowy flow across much of the region during this
time. Meanwhile the European solution keeps light snow largely
confined to the high country.
.AVIATION...Monitoring the potential development of low stratus
across the region this morning. If it develops, could see mvfr or
ifr conditions this morning for the Snake Plain TAF sites.
Otherwise, should be a brisk day.
.HYDROLOGY...Cooler temperatures have helped to mitigate snow melt
issues. The next warm up comes late this week peaking on Saturday
with snow melt follow-through expected into Sunday. Huston