Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 262111
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
211 PM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO. A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURES WORKING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. AREA WEB CAMS INDICATING MAINLY A MID
CLOUD DECK. WILL KEEP WEAK POPS OVERNIGHT IN A FEW HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEEING ANY SNOW IS LOW.
STRATUS/PATCHY FOG A POSSIBILITY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DROP.
HAVE MAINTAINED FOG MENTIONED OVERNIGHT IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS.
NEXT SYSTEM DROPS INTO PACNW EARLY SATURDAY AND SPREADS PRECIP
INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BEGINNING SAT AFTN. SNOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO OVERNIGHT. UPPER
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY BUT AREA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK DYNAMICS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS COMING
IN COLDER WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SO DESPITE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
QPF SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE CALCULATED TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. GIVEN
IMPACT ISSUE OF CONTINUED HOLIDAY TRAVEL HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ENTIRE AREA
BEGINNING AT 18Z SAT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ALL ZONES
BLANKETED BY 06Z SUN. SOME HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS MAY SEE SNOW
TOTALS THAT CREEP INTO WARNING CRITERIA...AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED AT UPGRADES AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. GIVEN CURRENT LEAD
TIME HOWEVER WILL HOLD AT ADVISORY AND UPDATE AS NECESSARY. AT
THIS TIME...SNOW TOTALS OF 2-6 FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND 6-10 FOR
MOST AREAS ABOVE 6000 FT ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS SFC LOW DIVES
THROUGH MONTANA INTO EASTERN WYOMING. VERY COLD NORTHERLY FLOW
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT WINDS
DOWN. DMH


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
EARLY LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  SHOULD HAVE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MONDAY BEHIND THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.  THEN EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN THE COLD CONDITIONS.  BOTH
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS BEGIN TO INTRODUCE SNOW ON FRIDAY WITH THE
EUROPEAN QUICKER WITH ONSET OF SNOW THAN GFS AND COLDER WITH SYSTEM
BUT WITH AT LEAST AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF PRECIPITATION
HAVE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW IN THE GRIDS.  SHOULD SEE
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK AFTER THE VERY COLD
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
GK


&&

.AVIATION...HAVE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AT TAF
SITES.  MODELS INDICATING SOME STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING AND RETURNED
SOME IFR CONDITIONS AT IDA AND PIH BY 12Z.  THIS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING ESPECIALLY AT IDA.  WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AT BYI...PIH AND IDA.
GK


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 11 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ022>025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ018-031.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ019.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY
IDZ032.

&&

$$







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