Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 130900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. RELATIVELY QUIET DAY FOR
CONVECTION WITH ONLY THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS HAVING ANY SORT
OF THREAT. A SHORTWAVE WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON
MON. THIS SHOULD GIVE PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AGAIN...BUT MAIN FOCUS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHERE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS BEST. THIS TROUGH
COULD BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS DURING
THE VERY LATE HOURS TONIGHT. BY TUE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXITS. EXPECT A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN BEHIND THE TROUGH ON
TUE...BUT STILL STAYING WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR HIGHS. OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS SEASONABLY MILD.
NORTHEAST WIND THIS MORNING IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS WEAK
ENOUGH THAT NO LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. WIND DOES NOT PICK
UP UNTIL AFTER TROUGH PASSAGE...ON TUE. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STAYS TO THE WEST AND KEEPS NORTHWESTERLY
AIR FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GEM STATE. THIS KEEPS FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR OVER EASTERN IDAHO EXCEPT WHEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS APPEARS TO OCCUR THU/THU
NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE FRI NIGHT. THE GFS ACTUALLY GENERATES
PRECIPITATION...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SOME ONLY ON THU...AND ONLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE BEEFED UP THE POPS SOME ON THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE DIVIDE. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH
KSUN EXPERIENCING ITS USUAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFTS. EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WETTING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
OUTFLOWS COMING FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS. EP

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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