Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 252129
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
729 AM CHST TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 3 TO 7 KNOTS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 THOUSAND
FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER TO THE EAST SEEMS TO BE IN NO HURRY TO GET HERE. NOT TOO
SURPRISING WITH FAIRLY LOW WIND SPEEDS NOTED ON THE VAD ABOVE.
WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOISTURE
IS SHALLOW AS NOTED BY A K-INDEX VALUE OF 6. THEREFORE DID NOT PUT
ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO
REVIEW THE MORNING SOUNDING TO SEE IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT
MOISTENING TO MAKE THIS A CONCERN. OTHERWISE...STARNDARD TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS AND BENIGN SEA CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE ROOST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
LATEST ENSO DIAGNOSTIC UPDATE FROM CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
CONFIRMS THAT A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES. THE MARIANAS HAVE HAD A
WETTER THAN NORMAL DRY SEASON...MICRONESIA IS HAVING A RATHER BUSY
TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SO FAR AND PALAU HAS BEEN DRY. PALAU HAS
RECEIVED ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF ITS NORMAL MONTHLY RAINFALL SO
FAR...AND 58 PERCENT ITS NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE YEAR. IF THE
DEFICIT GROWS MUCH LARGER WE MAY NEED TO START ISSUING DROUGHT
STATEMENTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE RELIEF IN THE NEAR-TERM.
THE GFS40 PREDICTS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH THE NEXT 10 DAYS WHILE
THE ECMWF-HIRES PREDICTS LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ARE FOR AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT THIS EL NINO CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR.
THE MODEL PLUMES INDICATE IT COULD GROW FROM WEAK TO MODERATE OR
EVEN STRONG IN THAT TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLUME EVEN HINTS AT A
CHANCE THIS COULD BE AN EXTREME TO RECORD EVENT. THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SITUATION TO MONITOR CLOSELY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN NEAR KWAJALEIN AND
NORTH TO NORTHWEST OF MAJURO WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
A SLOW BACKING TREND WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
SHORT-TERM FORECAST AT MAJURO WILL NEED FURTHER WATCHING...BUT FOR
NOW...AM EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO STAY NORTH OF THE ATOLL
WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN WATERS OF
MAJURO. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS BY MAJURO AROUND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND SHOULD USHER IN DRIER CONDITIONS. KOSRAE SITS BETWEEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH AND MORE TO THE SOUTH. A
SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION LARGELY SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AS THE
TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AND BRING DRIER WEATHER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
EXPECTED FOR POHNPEI. WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY TO THE NORTH FOR THE WEEK BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WEAK MONSOON TROUGH IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD OVER YAP. WEAK
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT KOROR WILL BECOME VARIABLE... SIMILAR TO YAP IN
THE COMING DAYS. A WEAK WIND FLOW AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT
BOTH YAP AND KOROR THROUGH THE WEEK. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT CHUUK THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
WEAK CIRCULATION...NOW NEAR 11N153E...MOVES WESTWARD.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/W. AYDLETT



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.