Area Forecast Discussion
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FXPQ60 PGUM 011903
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
503 AM CHST TUE SEP 2 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK MONSOONN TROUGH IS SITUATED NORTH OF SAIPAN...WITH LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS...MAINLY AROUND GUAM AND ROTA. SEAS
ARE RUNNING CLOSE TO 3 FEET ON THE BUOYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED WIND AND MARINE GRIDS FROM GFS AND WAVEWATCH...MAINLY TO
REFLECT SMALL CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS GRIDS. OVERALL FORECAST IS
MUCH THE SAME WITH LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING SOUTH
WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND 3-4 FT SEAS
THROUGH WED NIGHT. DRYING ALOFT SHOULD KILL THE THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY ON...THOUGH GFS IS NOW INDICATING RETURNING MOISTURE OVER
THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD COME AROUND TO NORTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS THE MONSOON TROUGH RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF POHNPEI IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN
PLEASANT CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE TODAY. FURTHER WEST...A WEAK
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING AN UNSTABLE
PATTERN TO KOSRAE TODAY. THE IMPULSE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
JUST EAST OF KOSRAE THIS MORNING...A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
WESTWARD ACROSS KOSRAE AROUND MID MORNING. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE
AND MODEL RUN...SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE TO ISOLATED TONIGHT
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OR EARLY THURSDAY. POHNPEI WILL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MAJURO...A TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE
DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND IS APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJURO THIS EVENING WITH AN UNSTABLE PATTERN
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MAJURO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SHORT
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER RETURNED TO CHUUK AND WILL CONTINUE THERE THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN
MICRONESIA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AFFECTING WESTERN MICRONESIA IS THE
WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOONAL TROUGH AND CIRCULATION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER YAP STATE AND PALAU THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUNDING DATA FROM WSO KOROR SHOWS A DEEP LAYER OF
15 TO 25 KT WINDS THROUGH 550MB ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING. GFS40 TIME HEIGHT SHOWS THIS CONTINUING
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVERGING WINDS SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM AROUND NOON
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AT BOTH YAP AND KOROR. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER BOTH LOCATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LATEST ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATES SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET JUST WEST OF
KOROR AND YAP. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON SWELL
HEIGHTS. BASED ON LATEST DATA...DELAYED INCREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS THAT
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SURF REACHING HAZARDOUS LEVELS UNTIL
WEDNESDAY. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/KLEESCHULTE





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