Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 240536
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
336 PM CHST MON NOV 24 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND RADAR DEPICTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER AND UPSTREAM OF THE MARIANAS COASTAL
WATERS. EFFECTS OF A SHEAR LINE ARE LIMITED TO THE FAR NORTHERN
MARIANAS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDANT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN YAP STATE. RITIDIAN BUOY SHOWS COMBINED SEAS
OF AROUND 6 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE MARIANAS TONIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON WEATHER. DRY TRADE-WIND CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A DISTURBANCE IN MICRONESIA AND MOVING IT WESTWARD
SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
GUAM BUT COULD BE A FINE LINE SCENARIO WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER GUAM AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CNMI FRIDAY SO
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FRESH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THANKSGIVING IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL...A DRY SEASON
PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH MOST OF THE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION STAYING TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING AND PASSING
SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS AND
AGREEMENT. ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN
MICRONESIA FROM KOSRAE POHNPEI TOWARD CHUUK. THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED
DOWN A BIT...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING OVER POHNPEI
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO FIRE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD...MOVING OVER CHUUK THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF KOSRAE THIS
EVENING. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN TO KOSRAE TUESDAY AND SPREAD
WESTWARD INTO POHNPEI TUESDAY AND CHUUK TUESDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF KOSRAE...SOUTH OF
MAJURO TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THIS BAND OF CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE MARSHALLS TUESDAY RESULTING IN INCREASING CONVECTION AT
MAJURO INTO THE WEEK. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE THE GREATEST THERE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES WESTWARD ALONG
THE CONVERGENCE ZONE. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD...
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BACK TO KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THURSDAY.
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BOTH KOSRAE AND POHNPEI FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINED ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NOW...BUT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
LOCATIONS...THOUGH TIMING IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT. THE SYSTEM
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF CHUUK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH IT
WILL BE CLOSE. THEREFORE...THE CHUUK FORECAST WILL BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE INCREASE IN SHOWERS IN THE LONG TERM.

BUILDING TRADE-WIND SWELLS AND WIND WAVES WILL CAUSE HIGHER SURF AND
RIP CURRENT RISKS ALONG THE EAST FACING SHORES OF KOSRAE STATE AND
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURF HEIGHTS AT BOTH
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK REASONING IS INCLUDED IN THE EASTERN MICRONESIA DISCUSSION DUE
TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE FORECAST.

THE PRIMARY FEATURE AFFECTING PALAU AND YAP IS A WEAK TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF YAP NEAR 8N140E. THIS
SYSTEM IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP AND IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD KOROR. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER YAP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST AND NORTH OF KOROR SO CHOSE TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NOW. BOTH YAP AND KOROR LOOK TO DRY
OUT QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. FAIR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THE TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
POHNPEI AND CHUUK APPROACHES THE REGION. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN ISOLATED FOR NOW...
THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FRIDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

WILLIAMS/KLEESCHULTE




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