Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 031952 AAA
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
600 AM CHST TUE AUG 4 2015

UPDATED TO ADD MICRONESIA DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR
IS NEAR 18N141E AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. ASCAT ANALYSIS
AND SATELLITE SHOW SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. VAD GRADIENT WINDS ARE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
ABOUT 20 KT. BUOYS SHOW COMBINED SEAS WESTERLY AT 8 TO 9 FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER COVERAGE WAS INCREASED TO SCATTERED FOR TODAY BASED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THE MONSOON-TYPE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MARIANAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT LEAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONGER TERM FORECAST SINCE SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS SHOULD RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT DUE TO
THE LARGE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE
FLOW AROUND SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE WINDS AND WAVES FORECAST.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A WEAK MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SUPER TYPHOON
SOUDELOR OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS GOING TO PERSIST NEAR POHNPEI
AND KOSRAE THRU WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
BOTH LOCATIONS UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTERWARD...DRIER GENTLE
TRADES ALREADY DOMINATING MAJURO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND ARRIVE AT
BOTH PLACES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CHANCE OF THE SHOWERS MIGHT
INCREASE NEAR MAJURO AFTER MIDWEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCES MOVE WESTWARD FROM THE DATE LINE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO OCCUR AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI TOWARD THE WEEKEND AS THESE
SYSTEMS PROGRESS FARTHER WESTWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
MODERATE MONSOON WINDS FEEDING TOWARD SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR OVER
THE PHILIPPINE SEA WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
CHUUK THRU WEDNESDAY. ONCE SOUDELOR HAS TRACKED FARTHER
NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY JUST
EAST OF CHUUK SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE ISLAND. THIS WILL
PROMOTE FAIR WEATHER THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

SOUDELOR HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A SUPER TYPHOON OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA OVERNIGHT. IN RESPONSE...A FRESH TO STRONG MONSOON SURGE HAS
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THIS SURGE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS NEAR KOROR
AND YAP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONCE SOUDELOR HAS TRACKED NORTH
OF 25N OVER THE WEEKEND...WEAKENING MONSOON WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
THINGS TO IMPROVE ACROSS BOTH LOCALES.

A BUILDING SOUTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY THE MONSOON SURGE IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF ACROSS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND
YAP STATE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...LONG-PERIOD
NORTHWEST SWELL PRODUCED BY SUPER TYPHOON SOUDELOR WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH THE EXISTING SOUTHWEST SWELL AND PROLONG HAZARDOUS SURF THRU
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH SWELL WILL ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS
SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST FRIDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
     UNTIL 4 PM CHST WEDNESDAY FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

SIMPSON/CHAN



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