Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 271927
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
527 AM CHST FRI NOV 28 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE
MARIANAS...WITH WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
WELL SOUTH OF GUAM. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WELL EAST OF GUAM AROUND 150-153E. RADAR WINDS ARE RUNNING 25 TO
30 KT AT 2000 FEET AND ABOVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST...TAKING THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT FOR TODAY AND PUTTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR TONIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH HAVE A VERY WEAK
TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH TONIGHT...THE ONE CURRENTLY
AT 150-153E ON SATELLITE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORM CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE...MARINE FORECAST
IS UNCHANGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY A LITTLE IF WINDS ARE SLOW TO DECREASE--SOMETHING FOR
THE NEXT SHIFT TO LOOK AT MORE CLOSELY.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SEEN THE LAST COUPLE DAYS OVER THE REGION IS
TAPERING OFF JUST A BIT THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER
CONDITIONS AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS TO JUST EAST OF KOSRAE. MODELS PROG THIS
DISTURBANCE TO DEVELOP INTO A CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE WEST...PASSING OVER POHNPEI STATE ON SATURDAY. SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BUILD IN OVER MAJURO AND KOSRAE FOLLOWING THE
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A BAND OF
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 6N AND
9N. THIS WILL BRING WETTER WEATHER TO MAJURO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

HIGH SURF ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EAST-FACING REEFS AT
KOSRAE AND MAJURO. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AT MAJURO TODAY...
BUT HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PERSIST AT KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DRIER WEATHER QUICKLY MOVED IN AT CHUUK THIS MORNING AFTER A ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE LAST NIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES
AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TO CHUUK LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS SPIN THE DISTURBANCE INTO
A CIRCULATION...PASSING SOUTH OF CHUUK SUNDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE
BEHIND THE CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR YAP AND PALAU...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED IN OVERNIGHT AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. HEAVIEST WEATHER IS SEEN OVER KOROR EARLY THIS
MORNING...HAVING PASSED YAP EARLIER. A BROAD BUT WEAK CIRCULATION
SOUTH OF YAP AND KOROR WILL KEEP TO THE SOUTH AS IT HEADS WEST AND
MAINTAINS A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER YAP AND
KOROR. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE DRIER BUT STILL THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE. GFS STILL SHOWS A PAIR OF
CIRCULATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT IS BEGINNING TO FOCUS ON ONE OVER
THE OTHER IN MORE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. MODELS SHOW THIS
CIRCULATION DEVELOPING MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR YAP.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH IN THE LONG-TERM TO SEE HOW THIS
EVOLVES.

MARINE FORECASTS KEEP SEAS LOW ENOUGH SUCH THAT HAZARDOUS SURF IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER...SHOULD A CIRCULATION DEVELOP
SUNDAY OR MONDAY...THE SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS MAY BUILD SEAS
ENOUGH TO GENERATE HAZARDOUS SURF EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SATURDAY
     FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT





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