Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 260848
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 AM MST SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
HOLD ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE
NEAR-RECORD READINGS WE SAW EARLIER THIS WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH SIMILAR
MOISTURE AND MUCAPE VALUES BEING FORECASTED ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN WHERE TS ACTIVITY WILL BE GREATEST
THEN WHAT WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT ACTIVITY ON SAT
WILL BE GREATER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON FRIDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY...AND OVER SOUTHWEST AZ AND SE CA...WHICH DID NOT SEE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY...WITH MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES
SEEING A BIT OF A DOWN DAY...WHERE MOST OF THE TS ACTIVITY DID
OCCUR ON FRIDAY. THUS...HAVE ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBLE OUTCOME...BUT CONFIDENCE IS DEFINITELY ON THE LOW SIDE ON
THIS FCST. ONCE AGAIN...BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY BE AN ISSUE WITH
THE STORMS ON SAT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS ALSO TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
ISSUE ANY DUST PRODUCTS...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND PUT PATCHY BD IN THE
GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW TODAY...IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...SINCE IS
IT LIKELY THAT RAINFALL ON FRIDAY WAS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO HOLD
TEMPS DOWN MUCH ON SAT.

SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
IT APPEARS THAT A LOW-MID GRADE MONSOON WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT AND THE TENDENCY FOR THE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTER TO REMAIN
OVER/JUST EAST OF OUR REGION WILL LIKELY HAMPER TS DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY...WITH INTERSECTING OUTFLOWS BEING THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT
FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TS ACTIVITY COULD BE LESS FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD INTO THE END OF NEXT...SINCE THE GFS HINTS THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT COULD BECOME A MORE WESTERLY...AND DRIER ONE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SOLN IS QUITE LOW...AND HAVE KEPT CLIMO-LIKE VALUES IN THE
POP GRIDS FOR NOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY-ABOVE
NORMAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
STORMS ARE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE METRO AS OF 0345Z AND CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AT ALL SITES. WINDS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER
THE PLACE BUT ARE FINALLY BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
ACROSS THE VALLEY. WILL NEED TO TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON STORM POTENTIAL...ATMOSPHERE MAY BE TOO
CONTAMINATED FROM TODAYS STORMS TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
STILL THINKING THAT BOTH SE CA TAF SITES WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT
ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD SNEAK INTO BLH. OTHERWISE THE ONLY
IMPACTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE PHOENIX STORMS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
PERCENT. A TYPICAL MONSOON DAILY THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX. TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GOOD RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AZ...NONE.

CA...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ





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