Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000
FXUS65 KREV 241040
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
340 AM PDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS TODAY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
NEVADA, THEN SPREADS SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY, BRINGING WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, RAIN AND
SNOW, AND HIGHER ELEVATION TRAVEL IMPACTS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO BUMP UP POP AND
QPF FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO END PRECIP
FOR MOST OF EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
THE SIERRA BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING (MORE ON THAT
BELOW).

EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSED ACROSS SOUTHERN
OREGON AND SPARKED OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. A MOISTURE/THETA-E BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM
THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO
THE FAR NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM WILL COME IN TWO PERIODS OF HEIGHTENED
PRECIPITATION RATES, ONE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT AND THE OTHER LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW.

AS FAR AS THE FIRST PERIOD, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 45N
AND 145W WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO THE FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LAKE TAHOE
REGION AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY MORNING. THE BEST FORCING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA FROM TAHOE AND
OUT INTO FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA AS THE FRONT WORKS WITH AN INCOMING
JET STREAK TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION RATES. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY, A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE LAKE
TAHOE AREA WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME TRAVEL CONCERN ESPECIALLY OVER
PASSES. THEREFORE, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS RAISED STARTING
LATER TONIGHT. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS CONTINUED THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT FOLKS SHOULD NOTE THAT TRAVEL SHOULD IMPROVE
GREATLY FOR THE TAHOE AREA BY MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING AS ROADS
HEAT UP UNDER THE LATE APRIL SUN. HOWEVER, AS PRECIP WILL INCREASE
AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING FOR A TIME AND COULD CAUSE TRAVEL ISSUES
AGAIN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THE ADVISORY WAS JUST RUN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SIMPLICITY SAKE.

OUT INTO WESTERN NEVADA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT, THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY REMARKABLE FOR THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN BUT COULD BE A
CONCERN FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LOW AS
IT MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A DEFORMATION SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN BAND MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. GIVEN THAT THE BAND WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SOME TRAVEL ISSUES ALONG
HIGHWAY 395 IN MONO COUNTY AND FOR THE PASSES INTO WESTERN NEVADA
(SWEETWATER AND ANCHORITE SUMMITS) ARE LIKELY. THIS HAS PROMPTED
THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONO COUNTY FOR LATE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS ARE HOLDING ONTO A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT THE LATEST RUNS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
FATHER NORTH. BEST CHANCE AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK.

LARGE OMEGA BLOCK SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTH
AMERICA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
BOOKEND LOWS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND IN THE PACIFIC NEAR
140-150W. THIS WILL PLACE THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST WITH WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR WESTERN NEVADA
WITH 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE SIERRA. BRONG

&&

.AVIATION...
NEXT SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PEAK SURFACE
GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS LIKELY WITH TURBULENT APPROACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE RENO-TAHOE TERMINALS. MOUNTAIN WAVES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES.

RAIN AND SNOW WILL REACH AREAS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE-GERLACH BY 00Z
FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BEING AT THE TAHOE TERMINALS AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. A
COUPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MORNING, WITH SNOW
AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY.

FOR RENO-CARSON CITY MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN. IF THE
SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THERE COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS.

AT KMMH, SHOWERS WILL BANK UP ALONG THE SIERRA CREST ON FRIDAY WITH
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00-12Z
SATURDAY.  BRONG

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY NVZ002.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM PDT SATURDAY
     CAZ073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
     FRIDAY CAZ072.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)








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