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000
FXUS65 KREV 062107
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
107 PM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST WILL BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY REACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY AS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST REGION. FORECAST
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DRIFTING OVER US BY MONDAY. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST SFC WINDS FOR MOST AREAS EACH DAY
AND VERY LITTLE VALLEY WIND AT NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE
THAT SHOULD COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM
RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOWS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL START TO SEE
OVERNIGHT LOWS INCREASE DUE TO WARMING ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENS.

THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
AND AGAIN MONDAY...BUT THESE SHOULD BE THE ONLY CLOUDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB THROUGH THE FORECAST. EVEN WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS...THE INCREASE IN INSOLATION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO INCREASE AND HIGH TEMPS TO RISE TO NEAR
70 IN THE LOWER VALLEYS BY SUNDAY AND THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
IN THE HIGHER VALLEYS....SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. 20

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. PACIFIC TROUGH PUSHES THE
RIDGE EAST BY WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR COOL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET BY WEDNESDAY, AND KEEP IT POINTED AT THE SOUTHERN CA
COAST. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE POSITION OF
THE MOISTURE AS EFFICIENTLY. GFS IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
TAHOE TOWARDS THE OREGON BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS TWO WAVES OF
PRECIPITATION. ONE WAVE STAYING ALONG THE CA/OR BORDER AND THE OTHER
WAVE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
PRECIPITATION FOR WED/THURS AS IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. BOTH
MODELS DO AGREE THAT THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION BY
FRIDAY. WEISHAHN
&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WEISHAHN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)