Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 221858
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...THE ISLANDS LIES BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BUILD OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MID LEVEL
TROUGH. A SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST MODEL FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH RECENT TJSJ RAOB
DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE SPREADING OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER
ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ADDITIONALLY...A SUB TROPICAL JET ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THEREFORE...LIMITED CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY...IF ANY WILL
BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH NOCTURNAL TRADE
WIND PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR...THE USVI
AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS...AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO EACH DAY.

FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH T-STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN PR WILL ESTABLISH ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INCREASING TROPICAL
MOISTURE BY THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS FOR PR/USVI XCPT BRIEF LCL MVFR IN SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA BTW 18Z-22Z TODAY AND SAT MAINLY OVR WRN PR... FEW OBSC MTN TOP
OVR DUE TO SHRA/PSBL -TSRA. SCT-BKN LOW CLD LYRS BTW FL020- FL050.
WND FM SE 10-15 KTS BLO FL200...BCMG FM W ABV AND INCR W/HT MAX WND
65-70 KTS NR FL450. NO SIG WX FCST EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS EXCPT FOR
SLGT HZ ALFT.

&&

.MARINE...PONCE BUOY IS INDICATING WIND DRIVING WAVES UP TO FIVE
FEET...AMONG THAT...THE LOCAL BUOY NETWORK CONTINUES TO INDICATE
FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  91  76  88 /  10  20  20  20
STT  78  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

09/27



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