Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 011806
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
206 PM AST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER PUERTO RICO
HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
ALTHOUGH...A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
MOST OF THE WEEK...DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. INTENSE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND EAST THIRD OF PR. RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES WERE ESTIMATED BY THE DOPPLER RADAR
ACROSS THE WEST...WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST PR.

OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS UPPER TROUGH
WEAKENS AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN AT MID LEVELS...THE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR...NORTH AND NORTHWEST PR EACH
AFTERNOON...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LESS CLOUDINESS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH
COASTAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS OR EVEN IFR CONDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT THE USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS JBQ/JMZ/JSJ IN SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH ABOUT 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR CONDS.
AFTER 01/22Z...VCSH IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD...USVI AND JSJ
TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET
RESPECTIVELY. MAIN HAZARD FOR MARINERS TODAY IS THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY NEAR USVI...AND NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 5-7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  77  88  76  88 /  30  30  40  30
STT  78  87  76  87 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

23/11


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