Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010941 CCA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ERODE QUICKLY TODAY THRU MON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CARIB. RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHES WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE TODAY BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD
OR AS FREQ AS YESTERDAY. MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
TROF. SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND HEAVIER
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY MON WITH T-STORMS POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 06Z TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING QUICKLY LEADING TO SHARP DRYING. THE
DRYING TREND INTENSIFIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A NEW AREA OF
HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED PERIOD OF FIRE DANGER THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS SFC WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER
AND REMAIN FROM THE ENE WHICH WOULD BE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN THE
SOUTH COAST AND ENHANCE THE WARMING AND DRYING IN THAT AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XCP FEW MVFR CIGS IN ISOLD/SCT -SHRA THRU MON. WIND
ENE 18-30 KT THRU EARLY MON BLW FL120 BCMG NE ABV TO FL200. WIND
WKNG 14-22 KT LATE MON.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS NEAR 20KT TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT. WINDS
SLOW DOWN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 7 FT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN TUE AFTERNOON INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS
BUILDING 6-8 FT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENE WINDS TODAY SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER FRICTION
AND REDUCED WIND SPEEDS ON THE SOUTH COAST TODAY. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON MON AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. A SIGNIFICANT DRYING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN TUE AFTERNOON INTO
THU MORNING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS LIKELY WED AND THU AS ENE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ENHANCE WARMING AND DRYING ON THE SOUTH COAST.
OVERALL...THE ENTIRE WEEK EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND MON WILL HAVE
ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  84  75  85  75 /  30  30  30  10
STT  85  74  85  74 /  30  30  30  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AST MONDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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