Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 020942
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...CONTINUING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LINGERING MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
INDUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT
MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A FEW OF THEM REACHING PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN PR.
HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SAME
AREAS EXPERIENCE SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANT
AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE EAST
LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THAT CAN LEAD TO
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA.

AFTER TODAY...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS TUTT IS
FORECAST TO BE ON ITS UNFAVORABLE SIDE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AND
THE DUE TO THE INTRUSION OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR. HOWEVER...PASSING
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SECTIONS OF THE USVI AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
DIURNAL INDUCED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
VCSH/VCTS AT TJSJ THROUGH AROUND 02/11Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA IN AND AROUND TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ AFTER
02/16Z...LINGERING TROUGH THE AFTERNOON UNTIL 02/23Z. MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TJMZ AND TJBQ...MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE EAST TO E-SE AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY...GUSTY NEAR
SHRA/TSRA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 4 FEET OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THRU THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  92  79  93  79 /  50  20  10  10
STT  89  81  88  79 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/13


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