Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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598
FXCA62 TJSJ 090805
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 AM AST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ALOFT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
THE REGION FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION....ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE ISLAND OF
CULEBRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE SAME SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTIONS PUERTO RICO
AT AROUND SUNRISE. THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.


MOSTLY SUNNY AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER MID WEEK...AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE NORTH INDUCING A SURFACE TROUGH WHILE INTERACTING
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND JBQ
AFT 09/17Z. SFC WNDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15KT AFTER 09/13Z.

&&

.MARINE...A LARGE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL...GENERATED FROM AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL
ARRIVE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT
IN HAZARDOUS SEAS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AT LEAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND MARINE
WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN
JUAN PR.

THE ARRIVAL OF LONG PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL GENERATE BREAKING
WAVES BETWEEN 8 TO 13 FEET THIS AFTERNOON ALONG MOST OF THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND THE NORTHERN U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
HAZARD MESSAGE ISSUED BY WFO SAN JUAN PR FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  73  88  73 /  20  30  30  10
STT  86  74  86  74 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
     NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-WESTERN
     INTERIOR.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND
     EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 2 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM AST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM
     TO 19.5N.

&&

$$

23/10



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