Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 161901
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
301 PM AST WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THURSDAY THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT.


&&

.DISCUSSION...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MODELS INDICATE A MOIST SURGE TONIGHT LIKELY
RELATED TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AS UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGE. EXPECT A CLOUDY SHOWERY DAY THU. DRYING
INDICATED ON FRI BUT THE STRONG WINDS COULD CARRY CLOUD CLUSTERS
AND BRIEF SHOWERS INLAND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ERODING AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATIONS TRACK EWD FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SUSTAIN GRADUAL EROSION OF MID
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCING MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. BY MID NEXT WEEK CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND DEEP THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINS SO FAR THIS YEAR.


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS AT JMZ AND JPS THRU 23Z. CLOUDY AND SHOWERY
THU WITH MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE STRONG CLOSE TO
20 KT AT ALL TAF SITES XCPT AT JMZ WHERE A WEST WIND WILL BLOW
AGAINST THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT WITH ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SUN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  76  85  76  85 /  30  30  40  40
STT  77  85  77  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.



VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND
     CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES
     AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

&&

$$

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