Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 052035
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
135 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...

.Synopsis...
Unsettled weather will continue through Saturday. Drier and warmer
weather is then expected next week.

.Short Term Discussion
Showers and thunderstorms pretty much behaving as expected. Fair
amount of instability around so thunderstorms farily numerous in
the valley. Most storms have been producing brief heavy rain and
small hail, expected for one cell near Yuba City which dropped
some quarter sized hail. HiRes models indicating activity should
continue into the afternoon and should decrase this evening. NAM
and GFS do continue some activity through the night in southern
portions of the forecast area near Modesto and Stockton which
wouldn`t be a surprise given some instability lingering around and
lift from the upper low.

Friday...overall instability not as impressive as well as shear.
Would expected less organized convection, but still a chance of
some small hail and heavy rain. Models do hint at an organized
wave rotating from east to west over the area Friday morning which
could bring a large area of rain and showers. Have increased pops
for this feature.

Hard to pinpoint detail Saturday as additional energy around the
upper low is likely, but timing unsure. Does appear to be aonther
unsettled day with showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Rasch


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)

Forecast models are in good agreement to the overall upper level
flow pattern in the long term period with a shortwave trough
feature depicted to push southward out of the Pacific northwest
and skirts through portions of NorCal. This upper level
disturbance will bring some chances for higher mountain showers
and storms for Monday and Wednesday. An upper level ridge will
build into California from the eastern Pacific by Thursday. As a
result of more stable conditions, warm and dry weather will return
to the forecast area.
&&

.AVIATION...


Isolated to scattered thunderstorms to continue today. Storms to
develop over northern Sac Valley later this afternoon.

VFR conditions with marginal MVFR in vicinity of storms this
afternoon and continue through tomorrow.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$



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