Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 121051
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
251 AM PST FRI FEB 12 2016
Dry weather pattern expected to continue for interior northern
California through early next week with well above normal
temperatures. A wetter pattern returns for the middle and end of
next week with daytime highs back down closer to normal.
Northern California under southwest flow aloft this morning
between a high pressure ridge over the Great Basin and a trough
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Weak frontal band now off the
north coast expected to lift northward and break apart as in moves
inland into the ridge so no precipitation is expected over the CWA
in the short term. Southwest flow aloft is feeding some varying
amounts of high cloudiness over the north state. High clouds over
the northern San Joaquin valley this morning having little impact
on fog which has formed again as it has over the last few nights.
Fog has not become especially widespread or dense the last couple
of nights and not expected to do so this morning. Daytime highs
today remaining well above normal and similar to Thursday highs.
Upper ridge begins to amplify offshore over the weekend bringing a
slow warming trend. High cloud cover will continue to spill over
the ridge as it develops with a short wave disturbance bringing a
slight chance of light showers to the northern mountains on
Sunday as it rides over the ridge. Upper ridge amplifies more on
Monday with ridge axis forecast to shift inland over the west
coast. This will bring clearer skies and a little more warming
with daytime highs pushing up to near record territory.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
High pressure will remain in control over California through
Tuesday of next week. By Wednesday, moisture in advance of the
next weather system should start to spill into the interior.
While confidence continues to increase in wet weather for NorCal,
there are significant differences in timing and strength. The bulk
of the precipitation centers around Thursday. The GFS and GEM are
considerably faster and weaker with the wave than the ECMWF. Snow
levels are currently projected to drop down to around 5000 feet.
The ECMWF and GEM suggest a secondary weaker wave moving through
the region next Friday. Confidence is lower in that system
Mainly VFR conditions today with light winds. Patchy IFR/LIFR fog
this morning across the Valley south of the Sutter Buttes.