Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EST FRI MAR 4 2016

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL...
...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM MID MARCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL...

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY

OVER THE SHORT TERM...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN THE
BENEFICIARY OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS. THESE EVENTS OCCURRED ROUGHLY WEEKLY...HOWEVER...WHICH
MAINTAINED HIGHER THAN NORMAL STREAMFLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA...AND RESULTED IN ONLY MINOR FLOODING ON THE NEUSE RIVER AT
SMITHFIELD...WHICH CRESTED LESS THAN O.5 FEET ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THE
FINAL WEEK OF FEBRUARY.

THE FOLLOWING TABLES SUMMARIZE PRECIPITATION AND MONTHLY DEFICITS.

               PRECIPITATION (INCHES)/DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL
               WATER YEAR (BEGINNING 1 OCTOBER 2015)TO DATE

    MONTH           RDU            GSO        FAYETTEVILLE
---------------------------------------------------------------------

  OCTOBER        5.06/ 1.81     4.24/ 1.11     6.66/ 3.45
  NOVEMBER       7.14/ 4.02     6.79/ 3.68     6.38/ 3.61
  DECEMBER       6.07/ 3.00     6.65/ 3.67     6.51/ 3.86
  JANUARY        1.73/-1.77     1.91/-1.15     1.70/-1.60
  FEBRUARY       4.68/ 1.45     4.23/ 1.27     6.14/ 3.38

TOTALS WATER
YEAR TO DATE    24.68/ 8.51    23.82/ 8.58    27.39/12.70
% OF NORMAL         153            156            186


                  BEGIN     ACTUAL   NORMAL  DEPARTURE  PERCENT
                  DATE       PCPN     PCPN   FROM NORM  OF NORM

RALEIGH-DURHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (RDU)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/26/2016   0.13    0.87     -0.74       15%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/19/2016   1.69    1.73     -0.04       98%
 LAST  30 DAYS   02/03/2016   4.81    3.51      1.30      137%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/05/2015  12.53    9.90      2.63      127%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/06/2015  29.52   20.25      9.27      146%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/05/2015  56.62   43.33     13.29      131%

PIEDMONT TRIAD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GSO)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/26/2016   0.21    0.81     -0.60       26%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/19/2016   1.73    1.61      0.12      107%
 LAST  30 DAYS   02/03/2016   4.27    3.23      1.04      132%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/05/2015  12.37    9.06      3.31      137%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/06/2015  29.63   19.15     10.48      155%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/05/2015  49.87   42.21      7.66      118%

FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT (FAY)

 LAST   7 DAYS   02/26/2016   0.19    0.70     -0.51       27%
 LAST  14 DAYS   02/19/2016   2.11    1.42      0.69      149%
 LAST  30 DAYS   02/03/2016   6.33    3.00      3.33      211%
 LAST  90 DAYS   12/05/2015  14.45    8.66      5.79      167%
 LAST 180 DAYS   09/06/2015  30.92   18.75     12.17      165%
 LAST 365 DAYS   03/05/2015  53.86   44.45      9.41      121%

STREAMFLOW AND LAKE LEVELS

STREAMFLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL NC ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THEIR NORMAL
RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS AS THE REGION HAS CONTINUED TO SEE FAIRLY REGULAR
RAINFALL EVENTS. FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS...SEE WWW.WATERWATCH.USGS.GOV.

THE LARGER WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS LOCATED IN CENTRAL NC ARE FALLS
LAKE AND LAKE JORDAN...BOTH OPERATED BY THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF
ENGINEERS. FALLS LAKE ELEVATION IS AT 251.9 FEET...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
ITS TARGET ELEVATION OF 251.5 FEET...WITH SEVERAL RISE AND FALLS
(ABOUT A FOOT EACH TIME) THE PAST WEEKS GIVEN THE REGULAR RAINFALL
EVENTS. LAKE JORDAN ELEVATION IS AT 217.4 FEET...JUST OVER A FOOT
ABOVE ITS TARGET ELEVATION OF 216.0 FEET AND HAS FOLLOWED A SIMILAR
TREND TO FALLS LAKE THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. SEE
WWW.EPEC.SAW.USACE.ARMY.MIL FOR MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

AS NOTED ABOVE...STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN
NORMAL...BUT THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SYSTEM LOOMING IN THE
NEAR TERM (MAR 5TH THROUGH MAR 14TH) THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR. AS
SUCH...THE SHORT RANGE CHANCE FOR RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW NORMAL
HEADING INTO MID MARCH.

LONG TERM PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE FREQUENCY OF RIVER FLOODING INCREASES FROM
MID WINTER THROUGH SPRING...PEAKING IN APRIL. THE ONGOING WARM PHASE
OF THE EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CYCLE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WINTER AND INTO SPRING...WITH THE CORRESPONDING EFFECT
OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH RELATIVELY WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN PLACE...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING FROM
MID FEBRUARY INTO THE SPRING IS ABOVE NORMAL.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND DISCUSSION MAY BE FOUND AT THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

IN SUMMARY...CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS NO SYSTEM EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MARCH THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A RECURRENCE OF RIVER
FLOODING...THUS THE SHORT TERM CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING IS BELOW
NORMAL. IN THE LONGER RANGE...HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF RIVER FLOODING
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE THREAT OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL
RESULTING FROM THE ONGOING WARM PHASE OF THE ENSO CYCLE.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON MARCH
17TH.

MLM/KRD



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