Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 241609
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1108 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 24 THROUGH OCTOBER 29

...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS A LITTLE RAIN NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level disturbance passed through the eastern parts of
the WGRFC area Thursday morning which brought some light rainfall
amounts to central and east Texas.  The showers associated with this
passing short wave trough moved eastward and exited Texas by
mid-day.  As this system moved east of the area, a ridge of high
pressure nudged in from the desert southwest.  This strong dome of
high pressure is centered over central New Mexico this morning.  This
high will move over Texas Saturday and will flatten out and shift to
the northern Gulf of Mexico by late Sunday.  As a result, today
through the weekend looks mostly dry for the WGRFC area with
unseasonably warm temperatures expected.

By Monday the ridge of high pressure will be centered over Florida.
This will allow an upper level trough, which will be located off the
Oregon coast Saturday, to move east.  As the trough crosses the
Rockies on Sunday night it will begin to impact the western portions
of the WGRFC forecast area.  This system may generate some
precipitation over southern Colorado starting late Sunday as a cold
front pushes into Colorado and New Mexico Sunday evening. This weak
front is expected to move east into north Texas by Tuesday and pass
very slowly into central and northeast Texas by Wednesday morning.
This front may bring increased chances for rain to northern and
eastern Texas later Tuesday into Wednesday.  At this point, heavy
rainfall is not expected and the larger amounts are forecast northeast
of our region. The progress of the system will be monitored and
updates will be provided throughout the next several days.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  Light amounts of MAP of less than 0.25
of an inch are forecast over southwest Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  Light amounts of MAP of less than 0.25
of an inch are forecast over southern Colorado, as well as over the
eastern half of Texas and Louisiana.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. Since no significant rainfall is expected for
most areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days, no
runoff is expected.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
WGRFC river forecast points are currently near bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted over the next five days will not cause mainstem
river flooding in the WGRFC area.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

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