Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 041624
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

                VALID SEPTEMBER 4 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 9

...COASTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OUT WEST...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

The morning opens again with widespread showers along the
Texas Gulf coast.  Continued coastal seabreeze showers are forecast
for the rest of the day with local amounts once again as high as 2
inches. Basin averaged amounts will be less than 0.5 inch. A strong
upper level storm system is located over the Pacific Northwest. A
large ridge of high pressure is located over the central United
States including over most of Texas. In between, over the Four
Corners region, there is strong southwesterly flow aloft. This is
bringing significant upper level moisture over the mountains of
Colorado and New Mexico, and significant rainfall amounts of up to
1.5 inch basin averaged are expected there today and tonight.

By early Saturday, the ridge of high pressure should begin shifting
westward, becoming centered over Texas. This will allow for
continued isolated showers on the Texas Coast and in southeastern
Texas over the weekend. Monsoonal shower and thunderstorm activity
over New Mexico and Colorado is also expected, but should be
decreasing in coverage each day. The upper level storm system
currently over the Pacific Northwest will eventually bring a cold
front to northern Texas around mid-week which will bring a good
chance for showers and thunderstorms to northern and eastern portions
of the state late week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inch are forecast for the mountains of
southwestern Colorado and far northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for portions of southwestern New Mexico.
Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for coastal Texas and for the rest
of western New Mexico.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of southwestern Colorado and northwestern
New Mexico. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of New
Mexico and for southeastern Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for the Rio Conchos Basin of northwestern Mexico. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for southern New Mexico and for
southeastern Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of northwestern Texas. Lesser MAP amounts
are forecast for the rest of the Panhandle, Rolling Plains, and
Trans Pecos regions of Texas and for southeastern Texas.

Drought conditions are returning to a good part of the southeast
two thirds of Texas.  Topsoil moisture has decreased during the
past month or so, thus it will take more rainfall for runoff to
occur. In Texas 41% of the state is abnormally dry, with 6% in
severe drought.  In New Mexico, 51% of New Mexico is also abnormally
dry.  The rainfall forecast over the next five days will not be heavy
enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC rivers are below criteria. The precipitation forecast over
the next couple days is not expected to create significant issues.
Dry soil conditions continue across most of Texas.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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