Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211547
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1046 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

                 VALID OCTOBER 21 THROUGH OCTOBER 26

...THE RIO GRANDE BASIN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MIDWEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will move slowly east now through Wednesday as a
shortwave trough approaches from the desert southwest. Another upper
level storm is located off the Oregon coast. Both features will
provide energy to increase chances of precipitation over the western
portion of the WGRFC area of responsibility over the next couple of
days. Onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico will also sustain a chance
for precipitation along the lower Texas Gulf Coast and Deep South
Texas through this period.

Over the next 36 hours the more southerly upper level disturbance is
expected to produce showers and thunderstorms along the Rio Grande
from El Paso to Lake Amistad, and in the Trans Pecos. On Wednesday
and Thursday the northern trough is expected to overtake and absorb
the southern disturbance, and lead to a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico and western Texas. Thursday
and Friday look mostly dry for the WGRFC area of responsibility as
an upper level ridge builds from the west.

In a longer term, the upper level system now in the Oregon area will
generate a weak cold front to pass through the WGRFC area starting
next Monday evening.  While the models are not in strong agreement
yet about this system, it is worth noting that this system could
result in a significant upslope snow event for northern and central
New Mexico. The progress of the system will be monitored and updates
provided throughout the forecast period.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...

For Today into Wednesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 are forecast for an area from the Big Bend National
Park northwest into New Mexico above Red Bluff Dam near Carlsbad and
west to El Paso.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 are
forecast for an area between Midland and Lubbock with the heavier
amounts south of Lubbock.

For Thursday into Friday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Friday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (48%) and 11% has extreme to
exceptional drought. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (63%) and 8% has extreme
to exceptional drought. No significant rainfall is expected for most
areas within the WGRFC forecast area through the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Localized rainfall near Candelera is causing a brief rise into action
stage as water filters through the area.  This water should move out
of flood category later today and may push Presidio (PIOT2) into
action stage in the next day or so.  Additional localized rainfall
could exacerbate the flooding but no significant flooding is
expected.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast points are at or below bankfull conditions.
Rainfall forecasted in the next five days will not cause
mainstem river flooding in the WGRFC area.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

CAZIER


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