Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 011717
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

                    VALID MARCH 1 THROUGH MARCH 6

...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WGRFC
AREA THIS COMING WEEK...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Wintertime precipitation has continued this morning in portions of
central and northern Texas and in northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado. In addition, showers and thunderstorms have developed off
the Texas Upper Gulf Coast and have been moving northeastward into
southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana. A well organized Pacific
storm is now located off the Southern California coast.  As a result,
the upper level flow over the WGRFC area of responsibility has become
southwest oriented, drawing in deep Pacific moisture.  A milder
airmass will return to Texas today, and rainfall will continue to
develop throughout the eastern third of the state. Widespread light
rainfall is expected for most of central and eastern Texas on Monday.

The forecast for New Mexico and Southern Colorado remains unchanged.
The previously mentioned upper level Pacific storm will hang around
the Southwest U.S. through the middle of next week.  Widespread
snowfall is expected across New Mexico and Southern Colorado, with
upslope areas receiving significant snow amounts.  Some areas will
measure new snow in "feet" increments through midweek.

A strong cold front is expected to approach the region from the north
midweek as a strong upper level trough moves into the central United
States from Canada. Thunderstorms are possible beginning in northern
and northeastern Texas on Tuesday and into southeastern Texas later
in the week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado and
far northern New Mexico and for portions of eastern Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for portions of central and eastern Texas. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for southwestern Colorado and far
northern New Mexico. MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch are forecast for
the rest of Texas and New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch
are forecast for portions of northern and northeastern Texas. Lesser
amounts of MAP are forecast for most of the rest of Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are
forecast for southeastern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are
forecast for South Texas and portions of central and northeastern
Texas. Lesser amounts of MAP are forecast for most of the rest of
Texas and New Mexico.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue across parts of New
Mexico and Texas. In Texas, about a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (43%), and about 14% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, two thirds of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought (68%), and 4% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions.  Lake levels in these exceptional
drought areas are at or near historical lows for this time of year.
Rainfall amounts of up to 2 inches are forecast for eastern Texas,
which could produce some runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Most rivers are generally near normal baseflow conditions across the
eastern WGRFC area and below normal across the western areas.
Continued periods of cold rain and wintry precipitation over the
area will be beneficial moisture as any frozen precipitation will
slowly melt and infiltrate into the soil.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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