Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 311602
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

                   VALID JULY 31 THROUGH AUGUST 5

...HOT AND DRY WEATHER WIDESPREAD IN TEXAS WHILE MONSOONAL RAINS
CONTINUE OVER NEW MEXICO AND FAR NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm activity late this Friday morning is currently
concentrated on the northern Texas Panhandle, outside of the WGRFC
area of responsibility. Isolated light showers without thunder are
located to the south of Austin, Texas and are expected to produce
only light rain as they drift westward towards the Rio Grande today
and this evening.

An upper level high pressure ridge is anchored over New Mexico and
the Four Corners Region and will continue to dominate the weather
over Texas and New Mexico into next week. Hot and dry conditions are
expected to persist across most of Texas, with a chance for scattered
mostly insignificant rainfall amounts. Much more widespread coverage
of showers and thunderstorms are expected each day underneath the
ridge in New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas, where
abundant monsoonal atmospheric moisture is in place. Some of these
storms will produce locally heavy rainfall and a potential for flash
flooding, especially from now into the weekend.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inches are forecast for portions of New
Mexico and the northern Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of up to 0.25
inch are forecast for portions of South Texas and for southern
Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inch
are forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle. MAP amounts of
0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and
southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast for the Rolling
Plains of Texas and into western portions of North Texas.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are
forecast for portions of the Texas Panhandle into western portions of
North Texas. Similar amounts are forecast for portions of northern
New Mexico and southern Colorado. Lesser MAP amounts are forecast
for the rest of New Mexico and for portions of the Rolling Plains of
Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of up to 0.25 inch
are forecast for isolated portions of New Mexico, Colorado,
northwestern Texas, and East Texas.

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water
according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been
very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two
months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues
to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days
will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff except over the
mountainous areas of New Mexico.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton
into flood stage for the forecast period.  This will be updated as
further release information is acquired from the Corps on their
projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are flowing below criteria at near
or above normal baseflow conditions. Significant rainfall is not
forecast in the WGRFC area in the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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