Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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106
AGUS74 KFWR 181702
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1102 AM CST SUN FEB 18 2018

                VALID FEBRUARY 18 THROUGH FEBRUARY 23

...SOME RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Light showers remain the forecast across portions of WGRFC area
today with a weak shortwave. Forecast rainfall amounts remain
less than 0.50 inches. No significant river rises are expected with
this activity the next 18 hours.

A much strong system will begin to impact the region later on
Monday and continue into midweek as a cold front moves eastward
tapping into moisture from the gulf. Widespread rainfall with
localized heavy downpours is forecast with this system over areas
that have soils which have been primed from rainfall over the past
couple of weeks. This potentially heavy rainfall will also be a
relatively long duration event resulting in significant rises
over the Sabine and Neches river systems.

The active pattern is expected to continue through the end of
next week.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Monday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or less are forecast for portions of New
Mexico, Colorado and central Texas.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inches
are forecast for New Mexico and Colorado with up to 0.50 of an inch
forecast for central and eastern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 1.00 to 3.00
inches are forecast for the southern two thirds of Texas with the
highest amounts across central and eastern Texas.

For Wednesday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of  1.00 to 3.00
inches are forecast for the southern two thirds of Texas with the
highest amounts across central and eastern Texas.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
Out of bank stages continue at some locations in the lower Neches and
Sabine basins. Significant rainfall is expected Monday into Tuesday
in northeast Texas which may cause moderate flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

NOTE - This product will no longer be generated after March 1, 2018.

All information in this product can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/quick_briefing

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

AUSTIN-SMITH


$$





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