Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 291607
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1106 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

                     VALID MAY 29 THROUGH JUNE 3

...WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A cold front is stalled across southern Texas this Memorial Day
morning, and is expected to remain nearly stationary for the next
couple of days. Numerous showers and thunderstorms during the past 24
hours associated with this front resulted in widespread 1 to 2 inches
of rain, with isolated 3 to 5 inches observed over parts of East and
Deep South Texas. The heaviest observed amounts were in and near
Corpus Christi. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the front
continue this morning southeast of San Antonio, producing rainfall
amounts as high as 1 inch. Another area of showers and thunderstorms
has recently developed over East Texas near Tyler and Longview.

Showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be expected to
further develop in southern and eastern Texas as afternoon heating
increases instability. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding are
possible, especially in the afternoon and evening. At this time, the
rainfall is forecast to decrease for the overnight hours ending
Tuesday morning, prior to another increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity in southern and coastal Texas Tuesday due to afternoon
heating and an upper level disturbance approaching Texas from the
southwest.

There will be continued intermittently rainy weather throughout the
coming week across portions of Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado as
several upper level disturbances move over the region. WGRFC
forecasters will be monitoring rainfall amounts and potential
flooding.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.1 inch are forecast for southern and
eastern Texas, especially near the coast. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5
inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico and southwestern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch
are forecast for southern and coastal Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to
0.5 inch are forecast for portions of New Mexico, southern Colorado,
and southwestern Texas.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the rest of the
southern two thirds of Texas and for southeastern New Mexico.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
forecast for portions of northern Texas. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1
inch are forecast for portions of central and southern Texas and for
portions of southern Colorado.

Soil moisture conditions have rebounded due to the widespread
rainfall which fell last weekend. The last U.S. Drought Monitor for
Texas shows the area considered to be abnormally dry is down to 22%.
And, only 2% of Texas was experiencing moderate drought with less
than 1% of the state in severe drought.  In New Mexico, 24% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions with 7% of the state
in the moderate drought category.  The rainfall the next five days
may be heavy enough to produce significant runoff over the southwest
Texas and the Hill Country rivers, and possibly coastal and
northeastern Texas river basins.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Neches Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Another round of rainfall on Sunday has produced another rise on the
Neches River and its tributaries. Several locations have returned to
minor flood status after having fallen below it over the weekend
(ATOT2, ATBT2). With additional rainfall expected through the week,
additional rises are likely to push the river even higher by the
weekend.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Heavy rain in the Rio Grande Valley has generated small non-flood rises
along the mainstem and flashy rises on a few of the side channels.
Columbia Bridge (CBBT2) is over action stage, but should fall quickly
this afternoon. Otherwise, rivers not mentioned have seen small rises
where the rain fell which increases the likelihood of flooding later
this week as additional rainfall moves into the region. With the
precipitation not organized in one specific are, it is difficult to
pinpoint a region with higher risk than other areas, so for now, we are
keeping a close eye on all river systems.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

PHILPOTT


$$





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