Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
AGUS74 KFWR 281542
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1042 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2016
VALID OCTOBER 28 THROUGH NOVEMBER 2
...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
Dry weather is forecast through the weekend over the majority of the
WGRFC area. An upper level ridge of high pressure will strengthen
and keep the WGRFC region very dry over the next couple of days. By
later on Saturday the ridge will move northeastward and start to
weaken somewhat as an easterly wave of low pressure will move toward
the lower Texas Gulf coast. As a result some precipitation is
possible over deep south Texas as southerly flow increases and
allows abundant moisture to move into the area. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be between 0.25 and 1.00 inch along the southeast Texas
coast by Monday morning.
During the day Monday the ridge of high pressure will continue
to shift east towards Georgia. This will allow the moisture and
some rainfall from the easterly wave to move northward into
central and east Texas by Tuesday of next week. This trend
continues into midweek with an increase of rain chances for much
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Sunday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.
For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1.00
inch are forecast along the middle and lower Texas Gulf coast into
deep south Texas.
Its been abnormally warm and dry recently, and as a result
deteriorating drought conditions are depicted in the latest drought
monitor released on October 27th. In Texas, the abnormally dry
category increased from 29% to 35% primarily over eastern and
southern portions. Also, 11% of Texas is experiencing moderate
drought conditions, and now severe drought is being observed over
parts of extreme northeast Texas. In New Mexico, around 54% of the
state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions and 4% is in moderate
drought. The rainfall forecast the next five days shows little
hope of improvement, and due to the dry ground the rain will not be
heavy enough to produce runoff.
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Rivers across the WGRFC area are near seasonal flow conditions. No
flooding is expected at this time since no significant rainfall is
anticipated over the next several days.
...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts. This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.
For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
National Precipitation Analysis:
The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
The US Drought Assessment:
The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas: