Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 211624
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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1123 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

                    VALID JULY 21 THROUGH JULY 26

...A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL OVER TEXAS WITH MONSOONAL ACTIVITY OVER THE WEST...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
After several days with high pressure in control of the Texas
weather, a minor change is expected in the pattern.  The ridge of
high pressure which was over north Texas and Oklahoma is temporarily
shifting eastward into northern Arkansas this weekend.  After
several hot, dry days we may see an increased chance for rainfall
over east Texas and western Louisiana.  But most of the rainfall will
be confined to two main areas the next five days.

Monsoonal activity in our western and southwestern forecast areas
will dominate the weather through the current forecast period.
Moisture has been abundant from northern Mexico and far southwest
Texas into New Mexico and southern Colorado the past several days.
Western New Mexico and western Colorado has been observing afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms, with even heavier rainfall
over portions of Arizona.  The thunderstorms should again become more
numerous and widespread this weekend as the high pressure ridge
shifts east from Oklahoma.  The areas near the mountains of New
Mexico into southern Colorado will be favored. Then as the ridge
redevelops over the four corners region next week the pattern will
remain favorable for continued diurnal thunderstorm activity.

Further south, rain chances will continue over the Rio Grande valley
between El Paso and the Big Bend area as diurnal thunderstorms
develop over northern Mexico and far southwest Texas.

Over southeast Texas, data indicates above normal amounts of moisture
in place, and already this morning widely scattered thunderstorms
have developed along and near the upper Texas Gulf coast.  This
moisture, along with the sea breeze front and daytime heating, will
enhance the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. Some of the stronger storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. The rain may spread inland a ways before
daytime heating diminishes and the areal coverage of the showers and
storms decreases by late evening. This pattern will likely repeat
itself each one of the next five days, especially this weekend into
early next week.

By Monday and into the middle of next week, as the ridge of high
pressure redevelops near the four corners region, there will be a
chance for some rain to move southeastward out of Oklahoma into north
Texas by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rainfall amounts the past 24 hours were heaviest over the west, with
the area southwest of Magdalena NM receiving slightly more than 2.00
inches and the area southwest of Datil NM got over 1.50 inches. Over
the Texas Gulf coast the area near Sugar Land received 1.00 to just
under 1.50 inches of rain.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are forecast for western and northern
New Mexico into southern Colorado.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 of an inch are forecast over southeast Texas into Louisiana, as
well as over far west Texas and northern Mexico into much of New
Mexico and Colorado.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for a good part of New Mexico, southern Colorado and
the western tip of Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are also
forecast for southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana.  The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over extreme
northeast New Mexico.  MAP amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are
forecast over the eastern third of Texas into Louisiana, as well as
over west Texas and northern Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for most of New Mexico, southwestern Colorado and the
western tip of Texas.  MAP amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast for
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. The heaviest rain is
forecast north of the WGRFC area over northeast Oklahoma.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the
southeastern third of Texas into Louisiana, as well as over west
Texas and northern Mexico into New Mexico and Colorado.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for much of New Mexico and southern Colorado.  MAP
amounts of 0.25 inch are also forecast for extreme northeast Texas
and northern Louisiana.   The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00
inch, are forecast over extreme northern and central Mexico.  MAP
amounts of less than 0.25 of an inch are forecast over the remainder
of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 26%, and roughly 8% of Texas is
experiencing moderate (or worse) drought conditions. In New Mexico,
27% of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, with
about 7% of the state in the moderate drought category.  Due to the
dry soil moisture conditions, the rainfall forecast will not produce
significant runoff the next five days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Rainfall over the past few days on both sides of the Rio Grande near
Presidio caused out of bank flows from Candelaria to Presidio, with
some minor flooding observed. The flooding has now ended and the
river is returning to seasonal levels.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
No widespread river flooding is expected over the WGRFC area during
the next 5 days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

STORY

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