Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 020023
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
723 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...STG LOW PRES CNTRD OVER NEWFOUNDLAND WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE NE TONITE. A WEAK HI PRES RIDGE WILL PASS NE ACROSS THE NT1
WTRS TONITE...AS ANOTHER RIDGE SHIFTS E OF THE NT2 AREA. DVLPG LOW
PRES WILL APRCH THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS MRNG...MOVE E AND NE
ACROSS THE NT1 WTRS LATER MON...THEN ACCELERATE OFF TO THE NE MON
NITE INTO TUE. THE LOW WILL PULL A STG COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2
AREA MON INTO MON NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE W
TUE...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS TUE NITE INTO WED. ANOTHER
DVLPG LOW WILL PASS NE ACROSS NEW ENG LATE WED AND WED NITE...THEN
MOVE OFF TO THE NE THU. THE LOW WILL PULL ANOTHER STG COLD FRONT
SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS WED NITE AND THU. A STG RIDGE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE W LATER THU AND THU NITE...MOVE OFSHR LATE FRI...THEN
MOVE E AND SE OVER THE AREA FRI NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS THRU WED...SO THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE
USED FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. NOGAPS IS SIGNIF TOO SLOW WITH THE NRN
STREAM LOW FOR WED NITE INTO THU NITE...AND IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN
OUTLYER SOLN FOR THIS PRD. THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN TWO CAMPS
CONCERNING THE SRN STREAM LOW FOR THU THRU FRI NITE...WITH
ECMWF/GEM GOING FASTER/STGR AND WITH A MORE NW TRAJECTORY FOR THE
LOW...BUT GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET FCSTG A SLOWER/WKR LOW WITH A MORE SE
TRAJECTORY. WILL ALSO BE USING THE GFS 30M SOLN FOR THE WIND GRIDS
OVER THE WED NITE THRU FRI NITE PRD...BECAUSE IT IS CLOSELY
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSISTENT UKMET MDL...BUT WILL BE ADJUSTING THE
GFS WINDS UPWARDS IN DEFERENCE TO THE STGR ECMWF. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WW3 MDL INITIALIZED A BIT TOO LOW ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS...WHILE THE ECMWF WAM WAS A LITTLE TOO HI...SO AS A
COMPROMISE WILL GO WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS FOR TONITE
THRU WED. WILL USE ALL MWW3 FOR WED NITE THRU FRI NITE WITH SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS AND ETSS FCST SIMILAR
POS SURGES WITH A DVLPG LOW MOVG OFSHR LATE MON AND MON NITE...WHICH
LOOK REASONABLE. ESTOFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH A NEG SURGE ALG THE
COAST FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY NE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BEHIND A STG
LOW FOR MON NITE INTO TUE...AND A COMPROMISE BTWN THE HIGHER ESTOFS
AND LOWER ETSS IS PREFERRED.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE MON.
     STORM MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     STORM MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM MON.
     GALE MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON.
     STORM MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE MON INTO MON NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE THU.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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