Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 281242
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
842 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

WITH HURCN CRISTOBAL PASSING JUST E OF THE N CNTRL NT2 WTRS WL BE
BRIEF. THE 06Z/00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF FCST VERY SMLR TRACKS FOR
CRISTOBAL WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING NE TO THE SE OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY
FRI MORNING WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK.
OTHERWISE OVER THE SHORT TERM THE LATEST MDLS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGRMT THAT A HIGH PRES CENTER WL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TONITE AND
THEN DRIFT OFSHR INTO THE NT1 WTRS LATE FRI/FRI NITE WITH WINDS
BCMG LITE (10-15 KT OR LESS) THRUT ALL OF THE CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. SO
WITH THE 06Z NAM/GFS SMLR TO THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS DO NOT
PLAN ON REPOPULATING THE PREVLY USED 00Z GFS 10M THRU FRI NITE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...AS THE HIGH IS FCST BY ALL OF THE MDLS TO PASS
E OF THE WTRS SAT INTO SUN MOD (15-25 KT) SSWLY RETURN FLOW IS
FCST TO DVLP THRUT MUCH OF THE WTRS. SEE NO REASON TO REPOPULATE
THE PREVLY USED 00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS FOR THIS RETURN FLOW. THEN BY
LATE SUN INTO MON NITE WL FAVOR A COMPROMISE 00Z/06Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTING OFSHR INTO THE
NT1 WTRS WITH WEAKER ASCD GRADIENTS. THEREFORE WL CONT TO USE THE
PREVLY POPULATED 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR THIS FROPA.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

00Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU FCST PERIOD. WILL POPULATE
WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THRU 12Z SAT...THEN 30M
WINDS WINDS FROM THE 00Z GFS THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGRMT
WITH BOTH THE ECWMF AND THE UKMET.

HURCN CRISTOBAL LOCATED JUST E OF THE CNTRL NT2 WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM REMAINING JUST
TO THE E AND SE OF THE OFFSHR WATERS. LATEST GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
AGRMT WITH TRACK OF THE LOW...AND ARE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM
THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY. WILL INPUT 09Z NHC ADVISORY INFO INTO
GRIDS WHEN RECEIVED FROM NHC.

COLD FRONT OVER NW PORTION OF NT1 WATERS PROGGED TO MOVE SE ACROSS
THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
ACROSS THE CNTL NT2 WATERS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...THEN MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE NWRD AS A WARM FRONT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT BEFORE DSIPTNG.

NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT...AS
HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES SE ACROSS THE SRN NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS.
WENT WITH THE HIGHER 30M WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...DUE TO
THE MORE UNSTABLE SWLY WINDS. FRONT LOOKS TO DRIFT OFF THE NE
COAST MON AND MON NIGHT.

.SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT OBS
OVER MOST OF THE OFFSHR WATERS...BUT LOOKS TO BE A TAD TOO HIGH
OFF PORTIONS OF THE NE AND MID ATLC COAST. POPULATED WAVE GRIDS
FROM 00Z WNA THRU THE FCST PERIOD...BUT DID TRIM BACK 9 FT SEAS A
BIT OVER THE SRN NT1 AND NWRN NT2 WATERS DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     TROPICAL STORM TODAY.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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