Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 301246
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
846 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL MOVE E
OF THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS TODAY WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY
ACROSS THE SRN NT2 WATERS. LOW PRES IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI OFF THE SE COAST AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FRI INTO SAT. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY SAT AND ALSO MOVE NE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THE 06Z GFS IS NOW INDICATING THAT
THIS SECOND WILL BE WEAKER THAN SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAD
INDICATED...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WATERS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THE 06Z
GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW ALTHOUGH
THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER IN MOVING THE LOW TO THE NE. THE LOW WILL
THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY SUN. CURRENT WARNINGS
LOOK REASONABLE AND FEW CHANGES SHOULD BE NEEDED ON THE NEXT
OFFSHORE FORECAST.

FOR SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL AND
ECMWF WAM.

EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A NEGATIVE SURGE OF 0.5 TO 1.5 FT FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
NIGHT ALONG THE SE COAST.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE NEW 00Z MDLS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN
OVERALL RSNBLY GOOD AGRMT THAT THE COLD FRONT NOW MOVG OFSHR WL
CONT TO PUSH SLOWLY SE ACRS THE WTRS TODAY...THEN BCM QSTNRY ACRS
THE SE NT2 WTRS TONITE INTO FRI NITE WHL A FRONTAL LOW DVLPS ON
THE FRONT TONITE AND TRACKS NE ALONG THE FRONT ACRS THE OUTERMOST
CNTRL AND NERN NT2 WTRS FRI/FRI NITE. A BLENDED 00Z
GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTION LOOKS BEST OVER THE SHORT TERM. THEREFORE
PLAN ON POPULATED OUR SHORT TERM WIND GRIDS THRU FRI NITE WITH THE
00Z GFS 10M BL WINDS...WITH SM MINOR ADDITIONAL EDITS IN DEFERENCE
TO THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF. SO SINCE THE SMLR 12Z GFS 10M BL WINDS
WERE USED PREVLY...ANTICIPATE MAKING ONLY GNRLY SMALL SHORT TERM
CHNGS TO THE PREV OFSHR FCSTS.

IN THE LONG RANGE...TO SLIGHTLY VARYING DEGREES THE 00Z MDLS ALL
FCST A STRONG UPR LOW TO ROTATE THRU THE BASE OF AN UPR L/W TROF
SAT NR THE SE COAST...THEN RACE NE ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS SAT
NITE/SUN WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG ASCD DVLPG SFC LOW MOVG OFSHR
NR HAT CNYN LATE SAT (WHILE THE SHORT TERM SFC LOW CONTS NE NE
ACRS THE SE NT1 WTRS AND THEN WKNS)...INTENSIFYG AND TRACKING NE
ACRS THE OFSHR WTRS SAT NITE/EARLY SUN...THEN CONTG NE TO THE SE
OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. VS ITS PREV 18Z RUN...THE 00Z GFS
FCSTS A REMARKABLY SMLR FCST TRACK WHICH OVERALL IS WELL SUPPORTED
BY THE EQUALLY CONSISTENT 00Z GEFS MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE
SINCE THEY ARE ALSO IN LINE WITH THE LATEST WPC MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE WL FAVOR A BLENDED 00Z GFS/ECMWF FCST TRACK FOR THIS LOW.
IN RGRDS TO THE FCST GRADIENTS ASCD WITH THIS DVLPG LOW...WITH THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF BEING VERY CONSISTENT VS THEIR PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS
THE 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS...WHICH ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY THE USUALLY
MR CONSERVATIVE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF BL WINDS...ARE VERY SMLR TO THE
PREVLY POPULATED 75/25 BLEND OF THE 18Z GFS 30M AND 12Z ECMWF BL
WINDS FOR SAT THRU MON NITE. THEREFORE DO NOT PLAN ON REPOPULATING
THESE FCST WIND GRIDS AND WL JUST MAKE SM GNRLY MINOR EDITS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE 00Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF BL WINDS. SO AS A RESULT WL
NOT BE MAKING ANY MAJOR CHNGS TO THE PREVLY FCSTD PSBL GALE/STORM
WRNGS IN THE LONG RANGE.

.SEAS...SINCE THEY ARE SMLR...WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z
WAVEWATCH III AND 00Z ECMWF WAM MDLS FOR TODAY INTO EARLY SAT.
THEN WILL TRANSITION TO USING THE PREVLY POPULATED 50/50 BLEND OF
THE 18Z WAVEWATCH III AND THE 12Z ECMWF WAM MDLS WHICH IS SPRTD BY
THE HIGHER 00Z WAVEWATCH III FCST SEAS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...OVERALL THE 00Z ETSS AND 00Z
ESTOFS MDLS FCST A SMLR NEGATIVE SURGE (GNRLY IN THE .5 TO 1.5 FT
RANGE) TO DVLP FRI NITE INTO SAT NIGHT ALONG THE SE COAST IN THE
WAKE OF THE DVLPG SFC LOW WHICH LOOKS RSNBL.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SUN.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT.
     STORM POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER NOLT/VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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