Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 201946
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS SOMEWHAT DIAGONALLY ACROSS THE
GULF TODAY...WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG FRONT S OF MOBILE BAY...AND
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY E ALONG 29N AND INTO N
FLORIDA...WHILE WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW SW TO CABO
ROJO NEAR 21.5N97.5W. SW PORTION OF FRONT BECOMING ILL DEFINED BUT
WITH BROKEN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS COASTAL ZONES OF
MEXICO ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT. OVERNIGHT SCAT PASSES SHOWED NLY
WINDS 20 KT BEHIND FRONT AND LIKELY FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE SHELF WATERS...WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT AND MAX OF 8 FT. MOST
RECENT 15Z SCAT PASSES SHOWED WINDS TURNING MORE NNE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WEAK LOW HAS SHIFTED NE. MODELS UNDERFORECASTING WINDS
AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT...WITH BUOY 42040 NOW AT 8 FT UNDER NELY
WINDS N OF LOW. FRONT AND LOW TO MEANDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON BEFORE FRONTAL REMNANTS BEGIN TO DRIFT N IN ADVANCE OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION...AND REMNANTS OF LOW
MOVE INTO BIG BEND REGION. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT
AND TUE AHEAD OF FRONT...AND SPREAD ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN BY THE
TIME FRONT ENTERS TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AROUND NOONTIME ON TUE.
GEFS INDICATING SMALL PROBS OF GALES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT
ACROSS N MEXICAN COASTAL ZONES AND THEN MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
BY AFTERNOON ACROSS BROAD AREA BEHIND FRONT...AND CONFIDENCE THUS
HIGH ON OCCURRENCE. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH FROM CENTRAL LA TO
CABO ROJO MEXICO BY TUE EVENING...PENSACOLA TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE
BY WED MORNING AND SE OF BASIN BY THU MORNING. GALES FORECAST BY
GFS TO CONTINUE ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING WED EVENING AS FRONT MOVES INTO NW
CARIB. PEAK SEAS LIKELY 10-13 FT BEHIND FRONT WITH MAX AROUND 15
FT SW PORTIONS.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS

WEAK W ATLC RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 26-27N PROMOTING ONLY MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB E OF 80W...WITH ZONE OF 20-25 KT
WINDS THIS MORNING BETWEEN 16N AND HISPANIOLA...AND SMALL AREA OF
STRONG TRADES OFF COLOMBIA...WHERE RECENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED
7-9 FT SEAS. HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY NW THROUGH EARLY WED AND WILL
INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS BASIN...AND BRING RETURN TO
NOCTURNAL MAX OF 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA STARTING TONIGHT...WITH HIGHER
RES GFS PARALLEL INDICATING SMALL SPOTS TO GALE FORCE THERE SUN-
MON AND TUE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...INCREASED GRADIENT TO FRESHEN
TRADES ACROSS ENTIRE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY WED...WHILE MODERATE E TO SE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS NW PART
AND INCREASES TUE AS FRONT APPROACHES NW GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR
TREND IN TRADES EXPECTED ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC AS CENTRAL
CARIB...WITH TRADES 20 KT BY SUN NIGHT GENERALLY S OF 13N...WHERE
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT.

...SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS

WEAK RIDGE NEARLY E TO W ALONG 26-27N WITH STALLED AND WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG ALMOST 30N AND FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS NW
PORTIONS. 15-20 KT TRADES CURRENTLY S OF 24N. FRONT TO MEANDER
ACROSS NW PART THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO LIFT N AS WARM FRONT AND
OUT OF AREA SUN NIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY OFFSHORE OF CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE MON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE NW
WATERS TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTH WINDS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT...INCREASING TO 25-30
KT BY WED MORNING ACROSS ZONE AMZ111...AND MAY REACH MINIMAL GALE
WARNING FORCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE SW N ATLC LATE WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N75W TO
CENTRAL CUBA WED NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO
10 FT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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