Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 250520
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
120 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF WATERS WILL MOVE SE OF THE
AREA EARLY TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
FAR NW COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF REACHING THE FL BIG BEND AREA ON SUN NIGHT...THEN
MOVE NE OF THE AREA MON WITH A E-W RIDGE THEN BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG ABOUT 31N THROUGH WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT/SEAS 3-5 FT ACROSS THE NW WATERS ON
MON...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT
ON TUE. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX EVEN MORE ON WED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS W OF 90W. N-NE
15-20 KT FLOW CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM
THE N TODAY WITH NE WINDS AT 15 KT CONTINUING ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS AND N APPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH SUN. THESE
WINDS WILL CLOCK TO THE E-SE ON SUN NIGHT...INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
ON MON...THEN SPREAD W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS E OF 90W ON TUE
BEFORE RELAXING ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVING WNW
REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN ON SUN AND MON WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
LOSE IDENTITY IN THE MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 15N ALONG 49W WILL MOVE W
ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND SUN...AND PASS
THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON-TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ON WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE
S OF 14N ALONG 40W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS ON MON
NIGHT AND TUE...AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON WED. A COLD FRONT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE E STALLING FROM E CUBA TO NE
HONDURAS TONIGHT. EXPECT LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
20-25 KT WINDS/SEAS 4-7 FT WILL SPREAD S THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN BECOME NW-N ACROSS THE
GULF OF HONDURAS W OF THE DEVELOPING LOW TONIGHT INTO SUN.
ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY VARY
ON THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PREVIOUS
THINKING OF THE LOW CENTER MEANDERING NEAR 17N81W ON SUN
ACCOMPANIED BY NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE...THEN
THE LOW WILL MOVE W ON SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF 20-25 KT THEN SHIFTING TO OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. THE
LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE
NIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG REMNANTS OF THE FRONT W ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIP WHICH IS DENOTED IN THE
WEATHER GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM
THE LOW ACROSS W CUBA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW SHOULD LOSE IDENTITY
AS IT PASSES N OF 31N TONIGHT DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT E TO A
POSITION FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N60W
TO 26N65W TO HAITI LATE SUN...WEAKEN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH FROM
31N55W TO 25N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE MON...AND FURTHER
WEAKEN TO A SHEAR LINE FROM 28N55W TO 25N60W LATE TUE INTO EARLY
WED. A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ALONG 28-29N W OF THE FRONT
ON SUN WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING E OFF THE FL COAST TO NEAR
31N80W ON SUN NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA ON MON
EFFECTIVELY RE-ORIENTATING THE RIDGE SW TO NE FL ON TUE. THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN NE-E 15-20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
27N W OF 65W ON MON-TUE...WITH THE WINDS CLOCKING TO THE E AT
15-20 KT ACROSS THE THE ENTIRE WATERS S OF 28N ON WED.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
.AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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