Marine Interpretation Message
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254
AGXX40 KNHC 230715
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
215 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

Impressive low pressure system is exiting the region, moving
across Florida peninsula. Scatterometer data shows moderate to
fresh NW winds in the southeast Gulf behind its trailing cold
front, now in the NW Caribbean. Broad scale cyclonic winds will
continue east of 90W today. A surface ridge will build southwest
from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan peninsula through
Friday morning, and winds in the western Gulf will veer southerly
ahead of the next cold front expected to reach the Texas coast on
Friday. The front will move across the northern Gulf through Sat
night, then lift northward as a warm front Sunday ahead of a low
pressure system tracking across Texas and Louisiana.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

The tail end of a cold front trailing south from a low pressure
system over southern Florida is across the NW Caribbean, from
central Cuba to Honduras. Scatterometer data shows fresh NW
winds in the Yucatan channel, and moderate SW winds ahead of the
front in the Gulf of Honduras. ASCAT also shows a very large area
of light and variable winds across most of the Caribbean east of
80W and south of 18N. The trailing cold front will stall later
today and gradually dissipate through Friday. Low pressure north
of the area will support a continuation of light to gentle winds
across most of the remainder of the area through Friday. High
pressure will build north of the area this weekend as the low
pressure system moves NE, allowing trade winds to return and
strengthen across the region Saturday through Monday. Fresh to
strong NE winds will develop Saturday near the north coast of
Colombia, and increase to near gale Sunday night into Monday.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium confidence.

An impressive low pressure system over the Florida peninsula
centered near Cape Canaveral trails a cold front between the
Bahamas and southern Florida to central Cuba. Scatterometer data
shows strong southeasterly winds in the northeast semicircle of
the low, with a narrow band of gale force winds detected just
east of the Bahamas between 26N76W and 28N79W. Model guidance
shows the low deepening further over Gulf Stream waters today,
with 25-35 kt winds extending in a wider swath northeast of the
Bahamas through this evening, then shifting northeastward as the
low pressure system moves away from Florida. As a result, the
offshore zones north and northeast of the Bahamas can expect near
gale to gale force conditions as the broad swath of higher winds
wrapping around the NE part of the low pressure system gradually
moves north-northeast through the area. Seas will build NE of the
low center, reaching a max of 14-15 ft by early Friday. The low
will move north of the area Saturday, with marine conditions
expected to steadily improve across the region this weekend.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     None.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sun night.
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
     Gale Warning early today into tonight.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
     Gale Warning early today into Fri.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight into Fri night.
.AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W...
     Gale Warning today into tonight.
.AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     Gale Warning tonight.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.



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