Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 060632
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
232 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
FRI NIGHT...BUT WILL WEAKEN FROM WED NIGHT ONWARD. MODERATE E TO
SE TRADES WILL PREVAIL PRIMARILY S OF 26N WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
SE TO S WINDS IN THE NW GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH
EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN
DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE NE GULF WILL
PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH FRI
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE GFS FORECAST AND THE NWPS WAVE
FORECAST.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS FOR
WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT RIDGE N OF THE AREA IN
THE VICINITY OF 30N AND LOW PRES ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH FRI...WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NW COAST OF
COLOMBIA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES N OF
THE AREA WEAKENS A BIT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE AREA OF STRONGEST
WINDS GENERALLY SHRINKING AND SHIFTING W THROUGH TUE AHEAD OF A
TROPICAL WAVE THEN GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN AREA WED THROUGH FRI.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
TODAY. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY TONIGHT...REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE TUE
AND EXIT THE AREA BY WED NIGHT. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W
WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TODAY...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BY TUE NIGHT AND EXIT THE AREA THU NIGHT. THE GFS/NWPS FORECASTS
LOOK REASONABLE OVER THE AREA AND WERE USED TO ADJUST THE GRIDS.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE 00Z GFS AND
12Z ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS AND
12Z EC WAVE FOR WAVES. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

1026 MB HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR
BERMUDA LATER TODAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR
30N76W WED THROUGH FRI IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
DIP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. OTHERWISE MODERATE E TO
SE TRADES S OF 27N ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WAS USED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE PREFERENCE TO ADD THE EC WAVE TO THE FORECAST AS IT
GENERALLY DOES BEST WITH SWELL IN THE OPEN ATLC.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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