Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 221952
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1254 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS AND MWWS BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE TX COASTAL
BEND. THE EASTERN SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
REACHING JUST W OF TAMPA BAY BY THU...THEN THE RIDGE WILL MEANDER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A HIGH PRES CENTER IS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG THE RIDGE... MAINLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A N-S ORIENTATED HEAT TROUGH FORMS OVER THE
FL PENINSULA DURING PEAK HEATING. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED...AND THEN PASS THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON THU AND THU NIGHT.

I NOTICED VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE ARRAY OF GUIDANCE THUS
BLENDED SMALL PERCENT OF LATEST GFS INTO PREVIOUS GRIDS. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS N OF 23N TILL THU NIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 10-15
KT ALONG THE SE TX COAST...THEN REPEAT AGAIN IN THE SAME AREA ON
FRI AND SAT NIGHTS. EXPECTING NE-E 10 KT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF
23N EXCEPT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA EACH EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE:  LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS AND MWWS BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND PASS THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN ON WED WITH VERY LITTLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION. STRONG NE-E TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE S-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE NOCTURNAL
ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EACH EVENING OFF THE
NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL EMBEDDED PATCH
OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR 12N75W.
FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...EXCEPT
INCREASING TO 20-25 KT OVER THE AREA S OF 17N THIS EVENING...BUT
NOT AGAIN TILL SUN EVENING.

LOOKING FURTHER E THE NHC FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
CARRIES A 30 KT DEPRESSION INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL ATLC WATERS FROM 11.5N-17N E OF 56W LATE TONIGHT...THEN
ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 12-19N ON WED. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED BE WEAKENING TO A 25 KT REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE LEEWARDS ON THU AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH
TROUGH AS IT PASSES S OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL.
NWPS AND MWWS BLENDED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MED CONFIDENCE.

A RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO NE FL WILL SHIFT S TO
A POSITION FROM 29N55W TO CENTRAL FL EARLY THU WHERE IT WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT
FLOW IS EXPECTED N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 65W THROUGH
THE PERIOD. EASTERLY TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE N COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT LATE AFTERNOONS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS S OF 21N BETWEEN 62-66W
ON THU NIGHT...AND BETWEEN 65-75W ON FRI AND SAT ACCOMPANIED BY
A NE-E-SE 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
 GALE WARNING THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON WED.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.



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