Marine Interpretation Message
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154
AGXX40 KNHC 031934
MIMATS

Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
234 PM EST SAT DEC 3 2016

Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A warm front over the northwestern Gulf will stall across
northern Gulf through tonight. Low pressure inland over Mexico
will propagate eastward along the front, which will drag the front
back over the northern Gulf on Sunday. The frontal boundary will
then remain stationary over the northern Gulf waters before
transitioning back to a warm front Sunday night ahead of another
area of low pressure. This second low will enter the northwestern
Gulf Monday morning, accompanied by a cold front. The low will
track northwest and over the southeastern United States Tuesday,
dragging the cold front across the remainder of the Gulf.

High pressure currently over the eastern United States will
support fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds across the
majority of the Gulf through Sunday, except for moderate northerly
winds north of the frontal boundary. The wind speeds will decrease
to moderate to fresh south of the front Sunday evening into Monday
as the high over the eastern United States slides east over the
Atlantic. The cold front entering the Gulf on Monday will be
followed by fresh to strong northwest winds that will affect
mainly the northwest Gulf Monday into Monday night. The cold
front will weaken as it crosses into the eastern Gulf Tuesday.
Global models are in good agreement on bringing a stronger cold
front across the northwest Gulf beginning Wednesday night and
sweeping it across the Gulf from northwest to southeast Wednesday
night through Thursday. Strong high pressure behind the front will
likely support gale force winds to 40 kt over portions of the
western Gulf basin Thursday and Thursday night, with fresh to
strong winds likely over the remainder of the Gulf. Current
guidance suggests wave heights over the southwestern basin may
peak near 17 ft with this gale event, with 12 ft seas developing
as far north as 27N off the Texas coast by late Thursday.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. High confidence.

A surface trough over the southwestern Caribbean supporting
scattered showers and thunderstorms will track westward through
tonight while weakening. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to locally
fresh trade winds will prevail through Monday. By Monday night,
the pressure gradient will tighten slightly between high pressure
over the western Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough
extending over the southwestern Caribbean. This will support
fresh to locally strong winds along the Colombia coast and Gulf of
Honduras Monday night through Tuesday. The strong winds will
become confined to mainly along the Colombia coast Tuesday night
through Wednesday. In the long range, a strong cold front will
cross the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, reaching the northwest
Caribbean late Thursday night.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: Global model consensus. Medium-High confidence.

High pressure over the eastern United States will dominate weather over
the forecast waters the next couple of days, with moderate to
fresh winds across the zones. The northeast zone AMZ115 may
experience fresh to strong northwest winds through tonight before
diminishing Sunday. The high will slide east over the western
Atlantic Sunday night, then will slide southeast over the
northwestern zones Monday through Tuesday. This will support
gentle to light winds within a few hundred nautical miles of the
high center early next week. To the west of the high, 15 to 25 kt
return flow will develop off the eastern coast of Florida Monday,
increasing to 20 to 30 kt by Tuesday. A cold front will enter the
northeastern waters Tuesday night, with moderate to fresh
northeast winds behind this front. Another cold front will enter
the northwest waters Thursday night with fresh to strong
northwesterly winds behind the front.

A large swell event is underway over the central Atlantic with
swell of 8 to 10 ft forecast to propagate over the northeastern
zones tonight through Monday, with lesser swell of 5 to 7 ft
spreading to the forecast waters east of 75W early next week.

$$

.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night.
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
     Gale conditions possible Thu into Thu night.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     None.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     None.

$$

*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

For additional information, please visit:
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

.Forecaster Latto. National Hurricane Center.



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