Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 292027
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
127 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 12Z GFS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NRN WATERS
TONIGHT...AND MEANDER OVER THE AREA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. MODELS
TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE LOW...WITH MAX WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW AT 20 KT. A SECOND LOW WILL THEN MOVE SE ACROSS THE PZ5 WATERS
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NRN PZ6 WATERS SUN. NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH MAX WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW TO BE IN THE 25 KT RANGE.

COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES THE WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MON...AND
MOVES ACROSS THE NRN WATERS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING STRONGER WINDS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH GFS INDICATING GALE FORCE 10M WINDS JUST W OF THE
WATERS. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT FOR NOW IN THE FORECAST...BUT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR POSSIBLE
GALES. FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE NRN PZ6 WATERS TUE...THEN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT TUE NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES
NOTED IN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER FRONT STALLS TUE OR CONTINUES TO
MOVE SE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE ECMWF INDICATES. UKMET SEEMS TO
KEEP THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL PZ6 WATERS THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. WILL LEAN TOWARDS GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE.

TO THE S...COASTAL TROF WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN CALIFORNIA
COAST FRI INTO FRI NIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL KEEP WINDS TO 25 KT WITH THE TROUGH FOR
NOW...AS THE GFS DOES INDICATE SOME WINDS TO 30 KT FOR SUN NIGHT
INTO MON NIGHT.

.SEAS...ENP VERSION OF WAVEWATCH WITHIN A FOOT OR TWO OF CURRENT
OBS. WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 12Z ENP THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WILL KEEP SEAS TO 9 FT OVER THE SRN CALIFORNIA WATERS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

NOTE: ON OCTOBER 06, 2016...THE NWS FTPMAIL SERVICE WILL DISABLE
THE CURRENT EMAIL ADDRESS. THE NEW EMAIL ADDRESS IS LIVE NOW.
PLEASE TRANSITION TO IT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE TO AVOID A SERVICE
DISRUPTION.

NEW EMAIL ADDRESS...NWS.FTPMAIL.OPS@NOAA.GOV
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

FOR THE SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE...PLEASE GO TO
HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OS/NOTIFICATION/SCN16-37FTPMAIL.HTM
/ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS/

.FORECASTER ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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