Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 070345
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
745 PM PST SAT FEB 6 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

A HIGH PRES RDG EXTENDS ACRS THE WTRS FM CENTRAL AND NRN CA WTRS
ACRS E PORTIONS OF PZ5 WTRS...WHILE A WK STNRY FNT ACRS SRN OREGON
WTRS BCMS A WRM FNT TO NW ASCD WITH A STORM SYSTEM MOVG NWD WELL W
OF AREA. BUOY 46005 JUST W OF WTRS RPTG SE WNDS GUSTING INTO THE
LOW 30S WITH LTLCHG LAST FEW HRS. LATEST GFS SHOWS LTLCHG FM
PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING GALE FRC 30M WNDS BRUSHING FAR NW WTRS
TONIGHT THEN SHIFTING N OF WTRS LATER TONIGHT AND SUN. A PEEK AT
FIRST FEW FRAMES OF NEW 00Z GFS HAS 10M WINDS INTO LOW 30S FAR NW
EARLY TONIGHT WITH WARM FRONT PASSAGE AND WITH GENL SLY FLOW
TAKING OVER ON W SIDE OF N-S RDG 10M WINDS OF GFS LOOK RSNBL. WILL
CONT WITH PRESENT GRIDS BASED ON 12Z GFS 10M WINDS WITH WAA
PATTERN CONTG AND THEN AFTER MON AS A SERIES OF CDFNTS START TO
AFFECT THE NRN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS A MEAN TIMING BASED ON BLENDED
GFS/ECMWF TRANSITIONING TO 12Z ECMWF BY WED LOOKS RSNBL...ALSO
BASED ON 10M WNDS.

SEAS...50/50 BLEND OF 12Z WAVE MDLS LOOKS RSNBL...MATCHING WELL
WITH CURRENT OBS...BEFORE GOING WITH ALL ECMWF WAM WED AND BEYOND
WHEN 12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED FOR WINDS.
-----------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z MDL GUID LOOKS SMLR INIT FOR TNGT THRU MON. A WM FNT LIFTS NE
FM THE NRN CA WTRS THIS EVENING THEN OVR THE OR/WA WTRS LATER
TNGT. INCRSG MAX WINDS TO 25 KT OR 30 KT OVR THE WA/OR WTRS LOOKS
RSNBL IN THE SLY FLOW ASSOC WITH THE WM FNT. OTW A SFC HIGH PRES
RDG WL BE IN FM THE E SUN OVR THE WA/OR WTRS INTO MON AND OVR THE
CA WTRS. BY TUE THE GFS SEEMS TOO STG WITH WITH SLY FLOW OVR THE
WA/OR WTRS WITH AN UPR RDG OVR THE WRN US AND WRN CANADA. OTHER
MDL GUID FM THE UKMET/ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS STG. WL LIMIT WINDS
AND GO NO STGR THAN 25 KT IN THE WA/OR WTRS...ALTHO THIS CUD BE
TOO STG. BY WED AN UPR SHRTWV WL LIFT NE OVR THE WRN SECTION OF
THE UPR RDG OVR INLAND AREAS. THE GFS IS STGR WITH THE WINDS THAN
EITHER THE UKMET AND ECMWF. WL HAV WINDS TO 25 KT OR 30 KT INADVOF
THE CD FNT. ANOTHER CD FNT WL APPROACH AND MOV INTO THE WA/OR/NRN
CA WTRS THU AND THU NGT AS UPR RDG MOVS FURTHER INLAND. PREFER
THE UKMET/ECMWF OVR THE GFS WHICH SHOWS A DVLPG LOW APPROACHING
THE OR WTRS LATE THU.

SEAS...WL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MULTIGRID WWIII AND ECMWF WAM
THRU 12Z WED WITH SEAS ACRS THE OFFSHR IN CLOSE AGRMT. GUID DOES
SHOW AREAS TO THE W OF THE OFFSHR WTRS BECOMG OUT OF SYNC LATE TUE
INTO WED...ALTHO DIFFS DO NOT PROPAGATE INTO WTRS. WL USE THE
ECMWF WAM AFT 12Z WED...SINCE ECMWF BEING FAVORED WITH WINDS.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER BANCROFT/ROWLAND. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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