Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 250306
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
806 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE 00Z OPC-NCEP SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED 1030 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED
APPROX 400 NM W OF THE NRN CALIF OFF WTRS OR NR 39N 139W AND
NEARLY STNRY. A 1006 MB LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED OVR NE NRN CALIF
WITH A TROF EXTENDING N AND THEN SW FROM THE LOW ALONG THE COAST.
FOR THE EVE UPDATE...WE WILL RE-POPULATE GRIDS WITH THE 18Z GFS
10M WINDS AND ADD 10 PERCENT TO THE WINDS OVR FAR SE OREG INTO NE
CALIF WTRS TO KEEP THE PREV HEADLINES FOR THE EVE UPDATE. THE
LATEST GFS WINDS APPEAR TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT AND FCST
CONDITIONS OVR THE WTRS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALIGN BETTER
WITH NEARBY TAFB AND COASTAL WTRS FCSTS AS WELL.

SEAS...SEA HEIGHT RANGED FROM 4-5 FT OVR WASH OFF WTRS TO 12 FT
OVR CENTRAL CALIF OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA.
WE WILL NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO THE PREV FCST AND GRIDS FOR THE
EVE UPDATE...EXCEPT TO ALTER GRIDS SOMEWHAT MAINLY NEAR THE
COASTAL WTRS AND TAFB WTRS SO THAT CURRENT AND FCST SEA HEIGHTS
ARE A BIT BETTER COORDINATED.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRES TO THE W OF THE REGION AND THE INLAND TROF
NEAR THE CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SAT IMG INDC PATCHY
CLOUDS OVER THE NRN AREAS AND MOSLTY THIN CLOUDS TO CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE SRN WATERS. THE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE ASCAT PASS AT
1721Z STILL SHOW WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT OVER THE
CENTRAL REGION WITH HIGHER WINDS OVER THE ERN PORTIONS WHILE THEY
RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 20 KT ELSEWHERE. THE 18Z NCEP MAP NOW SHOWS
HIGH PRES 1028 MB STILL ANCHORED TO THE W OF THE REGION NEAR
40N140W AND EXTENDS ITS RIDGES INTO THE NRN AND SRN WATERS WHILE
INLAND TROF PERSIST NEAR THE CA COAST. A COLD FRONT STILL LIES NW
OF THE WA WATERS WITHIN 90 NM. THE PRES GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED
FARTHER OVER THE AREAS BETWEEN THE INLAND TROF AND THE HIGH PRES.
OTHERWISE THE PRES GRADIENT IS STILL VERY RELAXED ELSEWHERE.

THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE ENERGY EMBEDED IN AN UPPERLEVEL TROF
THAT IS INLAND JUST E OF THE NRN WATERS. MODELS STILL INDC THAT A
CUT OFF UPPERLEVEL HIGH PRES ACROSS THE SRN PARTS OF THE REGION
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS W IN THE SHORT TERM KEEPING MOST OF
THE ENERGY JUST E OF THE FORECAST WATERS AND A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC WX
PATTERN WILL EXTEND INTO THE LONG RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
MAINTAINING A SFC RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION AND PSERSISTENT INLAND
TROF.

THE CURRENT RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STIL SHOW GOOD INITIALIZATION
WITH THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS. THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON KEEPING THE HIGH TO THE W MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ALSO
MAINTAINING THE INLAND TROF ALONG THE CA COAST WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT
PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS ON THE FEW SYNOPTIC FEATURES ARE STILL INSIGNIFICANT AND SO
WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH GFS.

.SEAS...THE SEAS ARE REALATIVELY LARGE OVER THE SRN WATERS RANGING
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 FT WITH PEAK TO 12 FT. BOTH WAVE MODELS THE NWW3
AND THE ECMWFWAVE HAVE CONTINUED TO INITIALIZE VERY WELL WITH HE
OBSERVED SEAS PATTERN AND THEY HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO SHOW GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT RANGE WITH VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE
LONG RANGE. THE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO PEAK AT 15 FT OVER
THE CENTRAL WATERS AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LARGE THRU THE
FORCAST PERIOD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
     GALE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
.PZZ920...OUTER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/MUSONDA. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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