Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 191953
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
1153 AM PST THU JAN 19 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18z surface analysis indicated strong low pressure centered
near 47N149W with occluded front extending southeast and south,
with trailing cold front southwest. Satellite imagery indicates
this very well with large area of cold air cu to the south of low
with a few lightning strikes also noted. Over the coastal and
offshore waters, most of the convection has shifted inland with
only isolated strikes over the coastal waters.

The 12z models continue to be in very good agreement during the
short term period roughly through Friday night with the evolution
of the strong low pressure mentioned above. The model agreement
then decreases Saturday and beyond handling the next strong low to
affect the area. For tonight through early Saturday, the models
all agree that the strong low will move east and approach the
Washington and Oregon offshore waters before stalling then lifting
north. The low will pull a strong cold front southeast across the
entire offshore waters through the period, and overall not
anticipating any significant changes from previous warnings. Then
looking ahead to Saturday and beyond, the 12z ECMWF still appears
to be a decent compromise between the 12z GFS which tracks the
next very strong low slightly north and northwest, and the UKMET
which remains further southeast. In addition, the 12z GEM is
reasonably close to the ECMWF. This will result in some storm
force winds over the northern California and Oregon waters
Saturday night. The low will then move southeast across the Oregon
and far northeast northern California waters Sunday night into
Monday night while weakening. Winds will finally decrease to below
gale all areas by Monday evening, with a weak high pressure ridge
building across the area Tuesday. Another weaker cold front will
approach the area Tuesday night, however it appears at this time
winds will remain below gale. In summary, will populate the wind
grids using the 10m winds through 11z Friday, then first sigma
level 12z Friday through 11z Saturday. For the remainder of the
period, will use the 12z ECMWF.

.SEAS...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas
continue to match up well with the MWW3. Similar to the wind
grids, will use the MWW3 through 11z Saturday, then will
transition to ECMWF WAM.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Sunday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Sunday night.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Friday.
     Gale Possible Saturday night into Sunday night.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight into Friday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
     Storm Possible Sunday.
     Gale Possible Sunday night into Monday.
.PZZ815...Inner Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale tonight into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night into Sunday.
     Gale Possible Sunday night into Monday night.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Friday night.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.PZZ920...Outer Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale tonight into Saturday.
     Storm Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday into Monday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ925...Outer Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Monday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ930...Outer Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale tonight into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ935...Outer Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Saturday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
.PZZ940...Outer Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to 120W...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.
     Gale Possible Sunday night.
.PZZ945...Outer Waters from 120W to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Friday into Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.


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