Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 311001
SWOD48
SPC AC 311000

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IN THE MEAN...UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE 4-8
PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN INLAND
AND OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER FL AROUND
THE DAY 5-6 PERIOD WHEN MODELS INDICATE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NOW OVER
THE SWRN U.S. WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF...DEAMPLIFYING
IN THE PROCESS. A SEVERE THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER NRN FL
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE DAY 6 TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...MODELS STILL HAVE NOT
DEMONSTRATED SUFFICIENT CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 01/31/2015


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