Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 260539
SWODY1
SPC AC 260537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST THU DEC 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING SATURDAY FROM THE
ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL DEEPEN AS AN EMBEDDED LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SWD ACROSS CA. MODERATE TO STRONG
FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE
STRONGEST FLOW EXPECTED AFTER 03Z/SAT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD
INTO SRN IA AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS
AND LWR/MID MS VALLEY AS A WEAK FRONTAL LOW MOVES NEWD TOWARDS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE SURGING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 00Z/SAT.

...ARKLATEX SWD TO UPPER TX/LA COAST...
MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING DEWPOINTS WILL REACH THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF E TX
AND SE LA BY 21Z/FRI. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT CURRENT DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS IN THE WRN GULF REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S...SUGGESTED
MOISTURE RETURN MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE BY THE GUIDANCE. EVEN IF MID
60 DEWPOINTS ARE REALIZED...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
ANY INSTABILITY VERY LOW AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP TSTM ACTIVITY ISOLATED BEFORE 00Z/SAT.

AFTER 00Z/SAT...PERSISTENT WAA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ELEVATED TSTM
ACTIVITY ACROSS E TX AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR
EXISTS TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS /0-6 BULK SHEAR AROUND 50-60 KT/
BUT SCANT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
RESULTANT SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER.. 12/26/2014



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