


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
453 ACUS01 KWNS 160538 SWODY1 SPC AC 160536 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. ...Upper MS Valley... A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two. ...WY/CO... The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY, with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging winds through the afternoon and early evening. ...NY/PA/WV... Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk of scattered wind damage across this region later today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025 $$