Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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412
ACUS01 KWNS 040052
SWODY1
SPC AC 040051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS LINGER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST
REGION...BUT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS GENERALLY IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
POCKETS OF SUBSTANTIVE INSTABILITY LINGER AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...IN THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  HOWEVER...COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH 02-03Z...AS INSTABILITY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION AND IMPACT FROM ONGOING/PRIOR CONVECTION.

AN AREA OF ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF A
CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET NOSING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY
BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF
THERE WILL BE MUCH FURTHER INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS A BIT LONGER
THAN OTHER AREAS /PERHAPS THROUGH 03-05Z/.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY TOWARD 09-12Z.  HOWEVER...ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY SEEMS MORE PROBABLE AFTER 12Z THAN BEFORE.

..KERR.. 05/04/2016

$$



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