Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 270543
SWODY1
SPC AC 270541

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
SWD ACROSS WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SERN OK VICINITY SWD
INTO PARTS OF E TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
AREAS...EXTENDING FROM THE MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST SWD TO THE TX
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS OR A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS
INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA ON FRIDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
CENTRAL KANSAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. FRIDAY...AS A
LOW/TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES TAKES ON AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...BROAD LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE
WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PLAINS STATES FEATURE...AS WEAK
SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGS SWD ACROSS THE CA VICINITY.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW OVER WRN KS SHOULD SHIFT GRADUALLY
NEWD WITH TIME...WHILE A DRYLINE MIXES EWD ACROSS WRN OK/CENTRAL TX
DURING THE DAY.  ELSEWHERE...BROAD/WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
OVER THE ROCKIES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE ERN U.S.
AND PAC NW.

...CENTRAL KS/WRN OK...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION -- IN THE FORM OF AN MCS -- IS MOVING ACROSS
KS ATTM...BUT SOME HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE WAKE
OF THE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WHILE MODEST FLOW ALOFT
IS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER
TROUGH...CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL/WEAK
SUPERCELL ORGANIZATION WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF THE
SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE.  LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS DURING
THE EVENING.

...SERN OK SWD INTO ERN TX...
SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS TX ATTM...FROM
THE TRANSPECOS REGION EWD ACROSS ALL BUT S TX.  THE EWD-MOVING STORM
CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ERN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD.  WHILE SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WILL HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...MODELS HINT THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH A CONTINUED SUPPLY OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SPREADING EWD
ACROSS TX MAY SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON UPTICK IN CONVECTION FROM SERN OK
SWD INTO SERN TX.  WITH SHEAR LIKELY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...QUESTIONABLE THERMODYNAMICS MAY BE OVERCOME TO SOME
DEGREE BY THE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS...YIELDING SOME RISK FOR HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.  STORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/MID AND LOWER MO VALLEY AREA...
WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING MUCH OF THIS
REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...COMBINATION OF AMPLE SHEAR AND WEAK QG
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD COMBINE WITH POCKETS OF MODEST
DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT RISK FOR A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS/MOSIER.. 05/27/2016

$$


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