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ACUS01 KWNS 280523
SWODY1
SPC AC 280521

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CAROLINAS EXTENDING WEST
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND.

...CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
A RIBBON OF CYCLONIC 50+ KT MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH STAYS FIXED
OVER THE ERN STATES.  A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE
CAROLINAS REACHING THE OUTER BANKS BY MID AFTERNOON WITH THE
WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE FRONT NEAR S-CNTRL MS/AL AROUND PEAK
HEATING.  MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND WEAKENED
CINH WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN ISOLD-SCTD STORMS IN THE FORM OF
SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLD DMGG WIND
GUSTS.  THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONCURRENTLY WEAKEN OWING TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION EFFECTS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...
A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST DEEPEN SLIGHTLY
AND MIGRATE NEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE PERIOD IN TANDEM
WITH A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL
LIKELY DELAY/INHIBIT STRONG SURFACE HEATING BUT A MARITIME AIRMASS
/CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S/ AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MARGINAL TO MODERATE BUOYANCY
/400-1200 J PER KG MLCAPE/.  GIVEN THAT THE PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY INTO HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING...ISOLD TO SCTD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EARLY.  A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION OR ORGANIZE INTO LINEAR
SEGMENTS POSING AN ISOLD THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS...PERHAPS A
TORNADO...AND LARGE HAIL.

..SMITH.. 07/28/2014