Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PART OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT MAINLY THE DAKOTAS...MONTANA...AS WELL AS OTHER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST AND SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS ND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
00Z BISMARCK ND OBSERVED SOUNDING SAMPLED AROUND 2800 J/KG OF MLCAPE
WITH A 7.1 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE IN THE PRESENCE OF NEARLY 30 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1300 FOR
ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM DETAILS.

OTHER MORE WIDELY DISPERSED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL SD AND
NORTHER/WESTERN NEB AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN
VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
AT LEAST THROUGH MID-EVENING IF NOT BEYOND. ALTHOUGH MOST STORMS
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...NOCTURNAL STORM SUSTENANCE AND UPSCALE SMALL-SCALE MCS
DEVELOPMENT /WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT/ CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED IN THE PRESENCE OF A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING /40 KT/
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.

ACROSS MT...VARIOUS GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 12Z WRF-NSSL/12Z USAF
ENSEMBLE AND LATEST OPERATIONAL HRRR/HRRL-ESRL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG/SEVERE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING STORMS TONIGHT FROM FAR
SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MT WITHIN
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

...OK/FAR NORTHERN TX TO SOUTHEAST STATES...
OVERALL SEVERE/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WANE
THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...BUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM INCLUDING AREAS SUCH AS
SOUTHERN OK/FAR NORTH TX AND FAR SOUTHEAST AL INTO SOUTHERN GA
/REFERENCE EARLIER MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299/.

..GUYER.. 07/05/2015



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