Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
000
ACUS03 KWNS 290729
SWODY3
SPC AC 290728

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
A TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ALONG AND JUST OFF THE WESTERN
U.S. COAST...WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM MIDWEST CLOSED LOW REMAINS
MIGRATORY DURING DAY 3...MOVING POLEWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

...MT...
MODELS SUGGEST A MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...APPARENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST...SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST
FROM FAR NORTHERN CA THROUGH THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTIAN
WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND REACH SOUTHERN
ALBERTA BY 02/12Z.  THE STRONGEST DPVA AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ATTENDANT TO THIS MIDLEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD LAG A COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL MT BY 02/00Z.  HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN AIDING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONG BULK SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS A LINEAR STRUCTURE AS STORMS DEVELOP AND
SPREAD EAST.  WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT
WITH INITIAL STORMS IN WESTERN MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THE
COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A LITTLE STRONGER INSTABILITY IN CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF EASTERN MT SATURDAY EVENING...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AND STRONGER BULK SHEAR CONTINUING TO LAG THE FRONT
SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE RISK.

..PETERS.. 09/29/2016

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.