Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 250710
SWODY3
SPC AC 250708

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY MORNING AND FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
TO THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS SHOULD UNDERGO AT LEAST MINOR AMPLIFICATION LATE IN THE
PERIOD OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS AS IT PHASES WITH WEAKER SRN-STREAM
DISTURBANCES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE CNTRL
GREAT LAKES TO THE SRN GREAT PLAINS BY EARLY TUE. GUIDANCE DEPICTS
ABOVE-AVERAGE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.

...GREAT LAKES TO SRN GREAT PLAINS...
DESPITE LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITIONING/AMPLITUDE
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES...OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY
CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORMS. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE MODEST AND CONSIST OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WITH MT AIR
CURRENTLY RELEGATED TO THE CARIBBEAN. ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND
FRONT WILL FAVOR PREDOMINATELY SWLY FLOW WITH AN EML PLUME OVER THE
WARM SECTOR...LIKELY MAINTAINING SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION FOR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS.

ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
WAA REGIME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MON MORNING. MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT AS THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND LARGER HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE FRONT. MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE ROOTED BY ELEVATED
PARCELS NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. SMALL HAIL SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED WITH
INITIAL UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE REMNANT EML...BUT EXPECTED WEAK BUOYANCY
WILL PRECLUDE PROBABILITIES FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 10/25/2014




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