Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 020715
SWODY3
SPC AC 020714

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE GULF STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STATES SATURDAY
AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
THOUGH HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PLAINS STORMS.

...GULF STATES...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY THIS
WEEKEND AS FLOW WEAKENS AT LOW LATITUDES OVER THE GULF STATES.  EVEN
SO...STRONG...DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO GA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVOLVE WITHIN SEASONALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE
FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK.

...HIGH PLAINS...

NWLY FLOW ON FRONT SIDE OF WRN U.S. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  PATTERN FAVORS A LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO AID
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WHERE INCREASING LLJ
COULD MAINTAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WELL AFTER DARK.  HAIL
AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS ACROSS THIS REGION.

..DARROW.. 07/02/2015



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