Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 222152
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON DEC 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WNW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 05.5N89W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS
INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WNW TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 111W...THEN THE ITCZ AXIS TURNS WSW TO BEYOND
05N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST OF PACIFIC COLOMBIA N OF 05N AND
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF PANAMA TO THE E OF 85W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N102W TO 08N120W. THE
EMBEDDED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 05N111W TO 11N110W WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 10N112W TO 18N102W.

...DISCUSSION...

A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO TO WELL DEFINED BASE OVER THE PACIFIC AT
12N120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE NW PORTION
NEAR 31N128W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N W OF 116W.

A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE...MOSTLY ORIGINATING FROM ITCZ
CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM E ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN 360 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
16N140W TO 09N113W...THEN THE PLUME TURNS NE IN RESPONSE TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING WITHIN 300 NM OF
LINE FROM 12N109W TO OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT
18N102W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE DISSECTING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND CONTINUING NE ACROSS MOST OF FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 32N131W TO 17N104W. THE GRADIENT
IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT N WINDS...AND 13-15 KT
SEAS PER A RECENT ALTIMETER PASS...ACROSS THE SUB-TROPICAL
WATERS N OF 29N BETWEEN 121-124W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT. NE-E 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SUBTROPICS AND TROPICS BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND
THE RIDGE...WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS WITH SEAS
OF 11-13 FT ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 08-13N W OF 132W. THE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX WITH THE TRADES DIMINISHING TO
20 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE LONG PERIOD NW SWELL
WILL CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 104W...RESULTING
IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT THE
CURRENT 6-9 FT CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT ON TUE. HOWEVER...NE 20-25 KT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA NEAR 29N ON EARLY NIGHT...AND SPREAD SW TO NEAR
27N117W LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT BY LATE WED.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...15-20 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EARLY TUE WITH THE NW FLOW INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...WITH
20-30 KT CONDITIONS SPREADING S ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA BY TUE EVENING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN LONG FETCH
WATERS NEAR 27N ON TUE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX ON WED
WITH 15-20 KT FLOW EARLY WED NIGHT AND ONLY 10-15 KT NW FLOW BY
EARLY THU.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. NORTHERLY 20-30 KT
WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED
MORNING THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE FORCE ON WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THE GALE EVENT TO END BY
THU EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT NE 20-25 KT
SURGE WILL BEGIN LATE THU AND EXTEND AS FAR SW AT 09N91W ON FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$
NELSON



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