Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282156
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT FEB 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA
RICA AT 08.5N83W TO 04N90W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE
THAT THE ITCZ FORMS AND THEN CONTINUES W BETWEEN 03-06N TO AN
EMBEDDED TROUGH AT 06N127W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH AND
CONTINUES W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N77W TO
03N88W.

A N TO S ORIENTATED TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 05N127W
TO 12N125W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N117W TO 09N129W.

...DISCUSSION...
 ZCZC  280154
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM
A POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH HAS ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S FROM
32N125W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 03N132W. AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO 07N106W. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH THAT IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NE WITHIN 600 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
10N130W TO 20N110W...THEN NARROWS AS IT CONTINUES NE ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...EVENTUALLY
FANNING OUT OVER FLORIDA TO THE S OF 30N WHERE IT IS FEEDING
INTO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE SMALL
CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER THE  FAR SE PORTION ALONG THE LINE
FROM 04N77W TO 03N88W QUICKLY EVAPORATES IN THE DRY UPPER AIR
DOMINATING THE TROPICS TO THE E OF 106W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 32N138W TO 14N97W. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING INTO THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NE OF THE
RIDGE TONIGHT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL N-NE FLOW INCREASING TO 20-
25 KT WINDS...WITH 8-11 FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD S
INTO THE NORTHERN DISCUSSION WATERS BETWEEN 125-135W TONIGHT...
AND SHIFT SW TO ALONG 25N ON SUN. BY MON NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 17-23N BETWEEN 132-140W WITH
SEAS TO 9 FT. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL MIX WILL CROSS EQUATORIAL S
SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-10 FT ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ELSEWHERE N OF 10N W OF 122W ON MON. A
SECONDARY SURGE WILL INCREASE THE N WINDS TO 20-25 KT AGAIN
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 120-130W ON TUE.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...S-SW 15-25 KT WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED TO
THE N OF 30N WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT EARLY SUN...THEN INCREASE
TO 20-25 KT AGAIN ON MON EVENING.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY 20-30 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT ON SUN AND THEN CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH
MON...THEN DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON MON EVENING. THE NEXT
NORTHERLY WIND EVENT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE THU...QUICKLY
INCREASE TO A STRONG GALE THU NIGHT AND REACH NEAR STORM FORCE
EARLY FRI.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED TO
RESUME TONIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OCCURRING ON SUN AND
MON NIGHTS...AND A MUCH WEAKER EVENT ON TUE NIGHT.

.GULF PANAMA...NORTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT TILL
MON NIGHT WHEN GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT.

$$
NELSON



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