Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190306
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Jan 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient
across southern Mexico is expected to relax on Friday. Gap winds
will gradually diminish below gale force by Friday afternoon as
a result. A plume of northerly swell associated with the strong
winds the past few days will propagate well away from the Gulf
of Tehuantepec waters, mixing with long period NW swell. Maximum
seas tonight will remain around 13-15 ft near strongest winds,
gradually subsiding through the weekend. No new gale force wind
events are likely until Tue at the earliest.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough axis extends from 06N77W to 06N93W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N93W to 07N114W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 115W and 127W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for information about
the ongoing gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

In the Gulf of California, winds will become southerly Friday
evening ahead of an approaching cold front, then become fresh to
strong in the northern gulf Friday night, shifting to NW to N
behind the front. The front will gradually become ill defined
Sat as it moves southward with moderate to fresh NW flow in its
wake. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten across the
area Sun, leading to fresh to strong winds across the entire
gulf Sunday evening and night.

Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, large NW swell
continues to propagate SE across the waters, with seas of 8-11
ft. This large swell continues to generate high surf along the
coasts and outer reefs of Baja California and mainland Mexico.
Another pulse of NW swell associated with a intense low pres
system north of the area will reach offshore waters of Baja
California Norte tonight. Seas will peak near 13-15 ft Friday,
while seas of 12 ft or greater will spread across the offshore
waters this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE gap winds prevailing between Papagayo and Tehuantepec
will pulse to strong each night through Saturday morning, then
diminish thereafter. Winds will be strongest offshore Papagayo
early Friday. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle offshore winds
will prevail N of 09N, with light to gentle southerly flow S of
09N. NW swell originating from the gale wind event in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec along with longer period NW swell will spread
across the area through Fri, building seas offshore to 5-7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the
forecast waters, with seas of 8-12 ft. A weakening cold front
from 30N129W to 24N140W has a reinforcing set of NW swell with
seas up to 13-16 ft. The front will re-energize as high pressure
builds to the NW, with N-NE winds increasing to fresh to strong.
The front will then wash out to a shear line this weekend as it
approaches southern California and NW Mexico.

$$
Mundell



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