Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
049 UTC Fri Aug 18 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A surface low is analyzed near 14N113W, with estimated mean sea
level pressure of 1008 mb. Strong winds, with seas in the 7 to 9
ft range are noted within 120 NM east semicircle of the low.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
180 nm southwest semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions
are favorable for tropical cyclone formation as this low moves
west northwestward the next couple of days. Refer to High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for
additional information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 06N, moving
west at about 20 kt. Isolated strong convection was noted from
06N to 11N between 92W and 97W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W from 07N to 21N, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 18N
to 21N between 107W and 111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 14N111W
through low pres near 14N113W to 12N120W to 13N127W to 11N137W to
11N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 90 NM
south of the monsoon trough between 118W and 134W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 NM south
of the monsoon trough west of 134W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge will dominate the forecast waters west of Baja California
producing mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas in
the 4-6 ft range the remainder of the week into the upcoming
weekend. A surface trough will meander across the Baja California
Peninsula and Gulf of California through Sat night, with a
surface low developing intermittently over the northern Gulf of
California.

Gulf of California...gentle southerly flow will persist across
the Gulf of California through the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: winds will pulse to fresh to strong during
the overnight and early morning hours through Monday, with seas
are building to 6-8 ft with these winds. On Monday, winds are
forecast to reach near gale force, with seas building to 9-10 ft.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: fresh to strong offshore winds are expected
during the overnight and early morning hours through Friday
morning, with moderate to fresh winds thereafter.

Otherwise, gentle NE to E winds are expected N of the monsoon
trough, while moderate southerly winds are expected S of the
monsoon trough axis through the upcoming weekend with 3 to 6 ft
seas throughout.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1028 mb centered near 41N141W extends a ridge
southeast to near 22N113W. Except as previously mentioned in the
special features section, moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic
flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.

$$
AL



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