Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 310424
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service San Diego CA
924 PM PDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will strengthen over California, bringing a
warming trend this week. The marine layer will become more shallow
with less extensive nocturnal low cloud and fog coverage. A weak
low pressure system will bring a cooling trend and a deepening of
the marine layer late in the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Low clouds eventually cleared over land late this afternoon, but
have already made their way back into the San Diego County coast.
Elsewhere skies remain mostly clear. The 00Z KNKX sounding shows
the marine layer depth continues its downward trend, with the
inversion now based near 2500 ft MSL. Low clouds and patchy will
spread into the valleys once again overnight. There is the
possibility of some patchy light drizzle associated with the
marine layer late tonight into Tuesday morning, however no
measurable precipitation is expected. Clearing is expected in most
areas by mid-morning, though there may be limited clearing at the
beaches.

An upper level ridge of high pressure building over California
this week will bring gradually warming, especially to inland
areas. By Thursday temperatures in the low desert will soar to the
110 degree mark. A persistent marine layer, which will gradually
shrink each day, will help keep temperatures near the coast near
to slightly below normal, while inland areas increase to around 5
to 15 degrees above normal for Thursday through Saturday.
Aside from night and morning fog in the coastal areas and western
valleys, expect benign weather through the period.

Models have slowed down the progression of the closed low next
weekend. Modest cooling will take place on Saturday as the low
inches closer to the coast, with greater cooling Sunday into early
next week. Both the 12Z GFS and EC have backed off on the amount
of moisture associated with this system as well. At this point it
looks like any chance of precipitation is slim to none, even over
the mountains. Otherwise expect an increase in both high and low
cloud coverage and locally breezy conditions in the mountains and
deserts during the afternoons and evenings.

&&

AVIATION...
310400Z...Coast/Valleys...Areas of BKN-OVC stratus will gradually
spread 15-20 miles inland by 10Z with bases 1100-1500 ft MSL and
tops to 2000 ft MSL. Local vis will be below 1 mile in fog in the
valleys 09Z-15Z Tue, especially VCNTY KRNM. Confidence is high for
BKN-OVC stratus continuing at KSAN and KCRQ overnight and moderate
that it will reach KSNA around 07Z-08Z, though stratus might not
reach KONT tonight.
Clearing will occur in most areas 16Z-19Z Tue, with stratus
returning to the coast early Tue evening with slightly lower bases.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted visibility
through Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
900 PM...No hazardous marine conditions are expected through
Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
900 PM...A Southern Hemisphere swell at around 4 feet/16 seconds
will arrive late Tuesday night and bring above normal surf and
strong rip currents Wednesday and Thursday. South/southwest facing
beaches, mainly north of Carlsbad in San Diego County and in
Orange County, will have 4-6 feet surf, locally to 7-8 feet. A
Beach Hazards Statement is in effect for Wed/Thu.

&&

SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Wednesday morning through Thursday
     evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Maxwell



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