Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 020329
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
829 PM PDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTOR AND
NEARBY VALLEYS...EVENING AND EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
QUITE EXTENSIVE THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN A
LITTLE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND BRING A WARMING TREND FOLLOWED
BY POSSIBLE COOLING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS EVENING.

THE MARINE STRATUS DECKS APPEAR TO BE LOCKED INTO A POSITION
ABOUT 10 MILES OFFSHORE FROM SAN DIEGO...AS VIEWING A LOOP OF THE
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. HOWEVER AS THE SEA-LAND DIFFERENTIAL
CONTINUES TO BUILD THIS EVENING...THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
INLAND BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...MUCH LATER THAN LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER
WILL BE VERY TRANQUIL ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS BOTH THE
COASTAL AND INLAND AREAS...AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED AT 130 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON)...
OVERALL...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THIS
WEEK. THE JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL TO OUR NORTH...AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NOW OVER SONORA/CHIHUAHUA WILL MOVE EAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST
COAST. HEIGHTS WILL LOWER HERE WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH MODERATELY
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...8-9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO SOUTHERN NEVADA EACH
AFTERNOON TO BRING A COOLING TREND. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THE EDDY
WEAKENING...SO THAT WILL MODERATE THE TREND A LITTLE BIT...BUT
STILL...WE SHOULD HAVE STRATUS IN MANY VALLEY AREAS EACH NIGHT AND
TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG F BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE
VALLEYS...SO MOST TEMPS THERE WILL BE ONLY IN THE 80S THEN. WITH THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW...THERE WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...ESPECIALLY THE DESERT SLOPES AND NEAR SAN
GORGONIO PASS. LOCAL WRF PLUS THE CANSAC WRF BOTH SHOW SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25-30 MPH IN WINDIEST AREAS FOR WED
AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD IMPLY LOCAL GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING THE MAXIMUM EXTENT OF THE WEST-COAST TROUGH OCCURRING AROUND
THURSDAY WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST
REBUILDING SOME FRI/SAT...BUT WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING TO OUR
NORTHWEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH NO INTRUSIONS OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
020330Z...COAST/VALLEYS...COASTAL EDDY PUSHING LOW CLOUDS BACK INTO
COASTAL AREAS 05-09Z...WITH LOW CLOUDS REACHING 18-30 MILES
INLAND BY 12Z. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BASES WILL BE
1300-1700 FT MSL WITH TOPS 1900-2300 FT MSL. VIS
RESTRICTIONS...DOWN TO 2-4 SM...WILL OCCUR WHERE LOW CLOUDS
INTERSECT HIGHER TERRAIN...AND OVER THE NORTHWEST INLAND EMPIRE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z
TUESDAY. AFTER 18Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 02Z WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS
RETURNING TO THE COAST 03-08Z WEDNESDAY.


MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...UNRESTRICTED VIS WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
830 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BROTHERTON
AVIATION/MARINE...BA






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