Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 021052
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
352 AM PDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN WITH A
WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NEAR THE SAN BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS. COOLING AND INCREASING
CLOUDS FOR WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL CONTINUE AN INLAND
WARMING TREND INTO TUESDAY. A CONSENSUS OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS PERFORMED WELL ON SUNDAY IN THE SHOWING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION (SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSOTRMS)...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SAN
BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. THOSE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE LESS
COVERAGE THAN FOR SUNDAY AND FOCUSED MAINLY OVER THE SAN
BERNARDINO MOUNTAINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE BEGINNING OF A
COOLING TREND. INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING GUSTY WEST WINDS
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. OTHERWISE...THERE WILL AREAS OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THIS WILL BRING
MORE CLOUDS...COOLING THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLOW WARMING...AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE DETAILS. SOME LIGHT MARINE LAYER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS
EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS
MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND TERRAIN FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE GFS MOVES THE COLDEST 500 MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE MOST
FAVORABLE PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
020900Z...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP RANDOMLY IN ANY PART OF
THE COASTAL BASIN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE AROUND 2000 FEET MSL
WITH TOPS TO 3000 FEET. SCATTER OUT WILL PREVAIL BY 16-17Z. LOW
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ASHORE ANY TIME AFTER 02Z WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER CIGS AT 1500 FEET MSL. IN MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR CLOUDS BASED AT 8000 FEET MSL AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FROM 20-
01Z THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

200 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...MM


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