


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA
494 FXUS66 KSGX 141019 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 319 AM PDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across California will bring slight warming today. High pressure will weaken for Tuesday and Wednesday with Wednesday high temperatures as much as 8 to 12 degrees below average for the valleys. For Thursday and Friday, a weak upper level low pressure from the south will bring an increase in monsoonal moisture with a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the mountains and high desert with the greater chances on Friday. Chances will slowly decrease during next weekend as the monsoonal moisture slowly decreases. Night and morning coastal low clouds will spread into the western valleys late each night. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... .SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... High pressure across California will bring slight warming to inland areas today with high temperatures as much as 5 to 10 degrees above average for the Apple and Lucerne Valleys and as much as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the western valleys. High temperatures today will range from around 70 near the coast to the mid 80s to upper 90s for the Inland Empire with 110 to 114 for the lower deserts. High pressure will begin to weaken on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures on Tuesday as much as 4 to 8 degrees cooler for the mountains and high deserts with most areas another few degrees cooler on Wednesday. With the cooling, high temperatures on Wednesday will be around average for the lower deserts and as much as 8 to 12 degrees below average for the valleys. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from around 70 near the coast to the 80s to around 90 for the Inland Empire with 104 to 108 for the lower deserts. The marine layer will remain near 1500 to 2000 feet deep with night and morning coastal low clouds spreading into the western valleys late each night. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)... A weak upper level low pressure system off the Pacific coast of central Baja will move slowly northward bringing an increase in monsoonal moisture into southern California on Thursday and Friday. NBM daily chances for measurable precipitation at Big Bear increase to around 15 percent on Thursday and 25 percent on Friday. There are chances for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly for the mountains and high desert on Thursday and Friday with the greater chances on Friday. Monsoonal moisture will begin to decrease next weekend along with chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with slightly warmer high temperatures for next weekend as the drying occurs. High temperatures for next weekend will be a few degrees above average for the deserts and as much as 4 to 8 degrees below average for portions of the valleys. High temperatures for next Sunday will range from the lower 70s near the coast to the upper 80s to upper 90s for the Inland Empire with 107 to 111 for the lower deserts. && .AVIATION... 140900Z....Coast/Valleys...Low clouds based 1000-1500 ft MSL with tops to 2000 ft MSL have moved inland about 25 miles, including the far southern and western portions of the Inland Empire. 30% chance of cigs reaching KONT 12-16Z. Clouds clear inland 15-17Z then near the coast 17-19Z, though there is a 60% chance of cigs continuing along the immediate coast of southern Orange County and San Diego County through today. Low clouds spread back into the coastal areas 15/00-03Z with similar bases and tops, then moving inland to a similar extent late tonight. Mountains/Deserts...FEW-SCT shallow Cu possible over the mountain ridges this afternoon. Otherwise clear with unrestricted vis through tonight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions expected through Friday. && .BEACHES... A moderate period south-southwesterly swell (2-3 feet at 15-17 seconds) will generate elevated surf and a high risk of rip currents Wednesday and Thursday. Surf of 3-5 feet expected with sets to 6 feet possible, primarily on southerly facing beaches. Swell and surf will begin to lower on Friday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...17 AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...CSP