Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 271603

Area Forecast Discussion
903 AM PDT Sat May 27 2017

A warming trend for inland areas will continue through Memorial
day with high temperatures becoming a little above seasonal
averages. The marine layer will become shallower...but with night
and morning low clouds and patchy fog still extending into
portions of the inland valleys for Sunday and Monday mornings. A
cooling trend with a deeper marine layer will return for the
middle part of next week. Slow inland warming and a slightly
shallower marine layer are possible towards the end of next week.



This morning...the marine layer is about 3500 ft deep, down from
about 5000 ft at this time yesterday. The inversion is about as
strong as it was yesterday. The stratiform low clouds cleared out
early from some inland areas only to be replaced by cumuliform
clouds. General clearing is likely between about 11 am and noon.

Today through Monday... High pressure aloft just off the West
Coast today...will shift slowly inland on Sunday...then begin to
weaken on Memorial Day as a trough of low pressure over the
eastern Pacific moves toward the West Coast. Inland high
temperatures will slowly increase through Monday, with high
temperatures near seasonal averages on Sunday and a little above
seasonal averages on Monday. As heights increase aloft, the
marine layer is expected to become a little shallower through
Monday...but still deep enough for night and morning coastal low
clouds and patchy fog to extend into portions of the inland
valleys for Sunday and Monday mornings.

Tuesday through Friday... A trough of low pressure will move
inland along the West Coast on Wednesday. On this, the numerical
models are in general agreement with some differences in the
details. Greater differences in solutions develop from Thursday
into next weekend with periods of weak high pressure or weak low
pressure aloft that may spread across Southern California. Inland
cooling and deepening of the marine is expected for the middle
part of next week. Some models indicate a slight chance for
showers in the mtns next Wed but currently it appears to be a
small probability of occurrence. Some slow inland warming and
slightly shallower marine layer are possible towards the end of
next week.


271400Z...The SCT-BKN stratus deck with bases near 3,500 ft msl over
the coast and coastal waters will continue to clear through 18Z.
Otherwise SKC and light winds will prevail through 03Z Sunday for
all areas. After 03Z, low clouds with bases near 2,000 ft msl will
redevelop over the coast and valleys, while the rest of the region
remains predominantly SKC.


Quiet weather will prevail through Memorial Day and into next week,
with 3-4 ft seas and northwest winds near 10 kts. Brief periods of
stronger winds 15-20 kts will be possible each afternoon and evening
outside of 25 nm. All and all, it looks like quality boating
conditions for the holiday weekend.


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.





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