Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 271212
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
410 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A
COOLING TREND WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THROUGH CALIFORNIA SOME TIME THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
BRINGING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WEST COMBINED WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN VALLEY
AREAS ONCE AGAIN AROUND 90. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY
AND STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...GREATER FOR THE COAST AND VALLEYS...AND SLOWER
FARTHER INLAND. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY RETURN TO THE COAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT A RETURN IS MORE
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN TWO KEY AREAS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...AND A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EAST FOR THE
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND
IN TURN SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
ITSELF FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED
SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS NOW
ALMOST...BUT NOT QUITE...AS SLOW AND CLOSED AS THE OPERATIONAL
ECWMF. THE GEM HAS ALSO TRENDED MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...BOTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES...AND OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE GFS...BOTH THE
OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 13-KM PARALLEL RUN...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES THE PAST PAST 24 HOURS.
THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND IN
TURN NOT AS SLOW...BUT WITH A CLOSED LOW TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS
SOLUTIONS WOULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...MAINLY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF WOULD NOT
ONLY BE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVAL INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT WOULD BRING LESS AS WELL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND TO THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS...BUT POPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOWER THAN A PURELY GFS SOLUTION
WOULD IMPLY GIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271000Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
130 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT








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