Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 222002
AFDSGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
102 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL DAYS AND A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY. NIGHT AND
MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A MUCH DEEPER MARINE LAYER TO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WITH POSSIBLY SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MINOR WARMING AND
A SHALLOWER MARINE LAYER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ACCORDING
TO LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE
LACK OF STRATUS THIS MORNING...IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...500 MB HEIGHTS WILL HAVE RISEN ANOTHER 4 DM COMPARED TO
THIS MORNING. THIS INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH THE MARINE
LAYER FURTHER...WITH VERY PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...OR
MAYBE NONE AT ALL...ACCORDING TO LOCAL WRF. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...FRIDAY NOW LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY...WITH DAY-TIME
HIGHS RISING TO 5 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. ANY NIGHT
AND MORNING MARINE LAYER APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY BE
PATCHY AND IN THE FORM OF FOG...AS THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
SHALLOW.

COOLING WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
UNITED STATES AND PUSHES THE RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST. ON
SATURDAY...DAY-TIME HIGHS LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL...AND THEN
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY. THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING DEEPENING OF THE MARINE
LAYER...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS MOVING DEEP INTO THE INLAND
VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY DEEPEN AND THICKEN UP ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. ALSO...GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT TIMES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS DUE TO THE STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME WARMING
DUE TO WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH DAY-TIME HIGHS REBOUNDING TO NEAR
NORMAL AND THE MARINE LAYER BECOMING SHALLOWER AGAIN. THERES THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
NEXT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF.
HOWEVER...THAT IS STILL 9 TO 10 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON
THAT OCCURRING YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
222000Z...EVEN PATCHIER LOW CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
AFTER 06Z. WHEN/WHERE CIGS OCCUR...BASES WILL BE ABOUT 500-800 FEET
MSL AND VIS 3-5 SM AND LOCALLY AOB 2SM ON COASTAL MESAS. CONFIDENCE
IS FAIRLY LOW ON LOW CLOUD COVERAGE TONIGHT AND ANY LOW CLOUD
COVERAGE WILL BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VIS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
100 PM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
100 PM...SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK TODAY...GRADUALLY FADING THROUGH THURSDAY. SEE LAXSRFSGX FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TS





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