Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 010911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES...MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASED IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS SEEN OVER THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS NEAR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED OVER SAINT CROIX AND VIEQUES. ELSEWHERE...CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TODAY...HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS
THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE FROM 1.5 THIS MORNING THROUGH
AROUND 1.8 INCHES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
WAVE...VERY DRY AIR...WITH SAHARAN DUST WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE EAST.

BY THE WEEKEND...AN EVEN DRIER AIR...IS FORECAST TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 1.00
INCH BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...VERY LITTLE TO NONE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING -SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE VCSH AT LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z. THEN...
VCSH EXPECTED BETWEEN 18Z-21Z AT TJBQ AND TJMZ WITH POSSIBLE MTN TOP
OBSCD OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF PR. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT EXPECTED BELOW 20K FT.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  90  78  89  78 /  20  30  30  40
STT  89  79  89  80 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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