Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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192
FXCA62 TJSJ 301805
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level cut off low will continue to the northwest of the
region, over the Hispanola, then it is forecast to move across
the Windward Passage and into the Caribbean Region. A mid level
high pressure is forecast to build north of the region and
continue through Monday. A tropical wave will move trough the area
on Saturday. A second tropical wave is forecast to move across the
region Monday night or Tuesday. At low levels, a strong surface
high pressure will continue over the Atlantic Ocean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mid to upper level clouds moves across the region during the day.
Also, the Doppler Radar detected a few trade wind showers across
the local waters during the morning hours, followed by afternoon
convection downwind from the islands of St Croix, St John and
Sierra de Luquillo. In additions, afternoon convection was
observed across the interior and western sections of PR. These
activity was due to the interaction between the available
moisture, the local effects and the instability associated with
the TUTT low. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through the
evening hours. For tonight just a few passing showers are expected
mainly over the waters and the windward sections of PR and the
USVI.

A strong surface high pressure will continue over the Atlantic
Ocean through the forecast period. As a result, expect a moderate
to fresh east to east southeast trade winds across the forecast
area. A tropical wave will move trough the area on Saturday to
increase the chances of showers and thunderstorms. High Saharan
Dust Particles are expected behind the wave. Followed by another
tropical wave by Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected to prevail at all TAF sites during
the forecast period.  SHRA and ISOLD TSRA possible across NW PR
after 18Z, causing VCSH/VCTS at TJMZ and TJBQ. VCSH possible
elsewhere. Low level winds from the E-ESE at 10-15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Mariners can expect seas up to 5 feet and winds at 10 to 20 knots,
decreasing at 10 to 15 around evening and into the overnight
hours. Small craft operators should exercise caution across the
coastal waters of Northern PR, Mona Passage and the Caribbean
Waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  80  89  80  89 /  20  30  40  40
STT  80  89  79  89 /  20  30  40  40

&&

.SJU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

71/27



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