Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 240734
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
334 AM AST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC RETROGRESSES. FLAT RIDGE WILL
THEN ESTABLISH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL TRANSPORT SHALLOW AREAS OF
MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE RISK OF SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH
OF THE CORDILLERA AND THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS. SOME DRYING
IS EXPECTED LATE TUE THRU WED WITH A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED DUE TO UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN RETROGRESSING
UPPER LOW FROM THE CNTRL ATLC AND UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. TRADE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND AS A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES EXITS THE CAROLINAS.
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTERS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL AFFECT ERN PR AND
THE COASTAL WATERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PASSING -SHRA AND VCSH LIKELY ACROSS THE LEEWARD/USVI TERMINALS AND
EASTERN PR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDY WITH SEAS 6-8 FT THROUGH TUE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
RAPIDLY WED THROUGH FRI WITH SEAS IMPROVING RAPIDLY. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND TO 20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING 5-7 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  86  81  83  81 /  40  40  10  30
STT  82  81  82  81 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST WEDNESDAY FOR ANEGADA
     PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND
     USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
     FROM 10 NM TO 17N-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO
     OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT
     10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN
     PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AST TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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