Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 230908
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.
UNDER AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED
OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...NOT
SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN...INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING DEPICTED A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION
TODAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE REGION. THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT VALUES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2.00 INCHES INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK. LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...FREQUENT PASSING SHOWERS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS USVI...EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL VFR UNTIL
ABOUT 23/08Z. THEREAFTER...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START
AFFECTING THE TKPK AND TNCM TERMINALS...THEN TIST AND TISX A FEW
HOURS AFTER THAT AND SO ON AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS BUT LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PR...IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ AFTER 23/16Z WHERE TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 3-5 FT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HOWEVER...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEREFORE...BOATERS
SHOULD AVOID THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  78  88  78 /  60  20  30  20
STT  88  78  88  79 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

09/72




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