Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 252324 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
724 PM AST SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WX REGIME EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE REGION. ONLY A SLIGHT RELIEF TO THE HOT WX EXPECTED TILL THEN
UNDER LOWERING 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 925 MB
TEMPS.

RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THU WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE OR POSSIBLE WEAK LOW PRES
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRYER
WHEN COMPARED TO RUNS 24 AND 48 HRS AGO AND MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD WITH THIS WAVE KEEPING MOST OF THE
ACTIVE WX OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT DRYING AND FORCING
DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY. SO IT APPEARS THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
WILL END IN THE DRY SIDE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX.
A SHRA OR TSRA POSSIBLE AT JMZ AND JBQ EACH AFTERNOON BUT PROBS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN FCST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH MON. WINDS STRENGTHEN TUE
AND WED TO 15-20 KT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION. TRADES WEAKEN WED NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SUN AS TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MON THEN BUILD 4-6 FT TUE-WED IN
MIXED NORTH SWELLS AND EASTERLY WIND WAVES.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93F DEGS WAS SET TODAY AT
THE LMM SJU INT`L ARPT. THIS TIED THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN
1973.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  91  77  89 /  10  10  20  20
STT  80  88  79  89 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

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