Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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000
FXCA62 TJSJ 041859
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS THRU FRIDAY. MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU AT LEAST THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF DEVELOPS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ON BY LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BY MID AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. AFFECTING MANLY THE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PONCE WEST TO SABANA GRANDE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WERE NOTED ALSO
IN STREAMERS FORMING OFF THE USVI AND REACHING SECTIONS OF EASTERN
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT AS OF 3
PM AST.

LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERALL AS MID LEVEL RIDGE
HOLDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...AS RIDGE WEAKEN EXPECT PASSING
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER THE USVI AND WINDWARD AREAS DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH DAY. BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROF...EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
WATERS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD THRU WED XCP IN SCT SHRA/TSRA WEST PR INCL
TJMZ WED AFT. WINDS BLW FL100-SFC E-ENE 16-24 KT GRADUALLY BCMG
E 12-20 KT TONITE-WED.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS 4-6 FEET DECREASING TO 3-5 FEET IN THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO. SPECIALLY NEAR THE CAMP SANTIAGO AREA
WHERE RH VALUES REACHED THE UPPER 40S AND STRONG WINDS PERSISTED
THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  20
STT  78  91  78  89 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

54/13


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