Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 040254
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1054 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGE TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STREAMING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PR. HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOT SIGNIFICANT OVER
LAND AREAS AS OF 10 PM AST. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
BRISK EASTERLIES COULD STILL BRING PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN AS
SAHARAN AIR LAYER FILLS OVER THE REGION THRU THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. NO CHANGES MADE TO SHORT TERM GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOME PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
TIST...TISX...AND TJSJ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT DUE TO
OFFSHORE SEAS UP TO 7 FEET. NEARSHORE BUOYS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS PR AND USVI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM AST FRI JUL 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO WILL
CONTINUE TO WEST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BRING A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...A FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE AIR MASS WITH SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
MAINLY SOUTH AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WETTER TONIGHT AS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE BRUSH THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. AS SHOWN IN THE LATEST BLENDED PW ANALYSIS MOISTURE
HAVE INCREASED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW...CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE USVI AND PR
THE REST OF TODAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/TUTT
NORTHEAST OF PR COULD ENHANCE SOMEWHAT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. THEN...AEROSOL MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL SAHARAN DUST MOVING INTO THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE...EXPECT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EASTERLY PERTURBATION WILL PASS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS ON TUESDAY. IN
GENERAL...BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS SUGGESTED BY THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS W-PR AFTER 03/19Z CAUSING VCSH AROUND
TJMZ/TJBQ. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 15-20KT AND GUSTY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...DECREASING TO 10KT OR SO AFTER 04/00Z. TROPICAL
WAVE EXPECTED TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...
CAUSING VCSH ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS.

MARINE...BREEZY AND CHOPPY SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS OVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
4-6 FEET ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 7 FEET ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  78  90  79  90 /  40  40  20  20
STT  79  89  79  90 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...VI...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM
     10NM TO 19.5N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO
     17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 5 PM AST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
     RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

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