Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 282122
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
322 PM MDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving slowly east through the
desert southwest will serve to keep unsettled conditions across
portions of Utah through Monday. Strong high pressure aloft will
follow for the middle and latter portions of the upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Until 06Z Wednesday)...The upper low currently off
the southern California coast will take a slow but steady eastward
track into the desert southwest by Monday. Shortwaves ejecting
north out ahead of this feature will encounter enough moisture to
spawn scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms on into Monday.
Most of this activity will concentrate over the higher terrain and
occur during the afternoon and early evening hours.

The flow aloft will likely remain fairly weak over the forecast
area through Sunday night. As such some of the convection could
spawn locally heavy precip. Do not anticipate any issues with
these heavier convective events as they likely will be few in
number and of short duration.

The low amplitude upper trough is scheduled to track east across
the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies late Sunday through Monday.
This feature...though centered well north of Utah....could still
end up producing a band of organized precip across northern or
central Utah Monday afternoon. A weak near 700 mb baroclinic zone
shoved south into central Utah by the passing upper trough could
serve as the low-level boundary where convection can focus. Not
looking at strong convection with this boundary as the best
dynamic forcing remains well removed to the north...but still
could see organized convection at least into early evening.

Strong high pressure aloft along the west coast Monday will shift
east into the western Great Basin Tuesday. This shift to a more
summer-like pattern over the region will leading to a warming
trend extending beyond the short range forecast period.

.LONG TERM (After 06Z Wednesday)...Amplified ridging focused over
the western great basin will gradually shift east and overhead
through Thursday, with the mid level high orienting overhead by the
afternoon hours. Globals hint at somewhat elevated RH at H5 blowing
up over the terrain both Wed/Thu afternoon`s, this most likely
indicative of terrain based cu at best within the highly stable
environment that will be in place. Removed all Pops for the valleys
and left unmentionable percentages for (at worst) a few sprinkles
in the prone mountains such as the Uintas.

Globals begin to deviate slightly in the eastward translation of the
next (weak) upper low thereafter that will then be gradually working
east towards SoCal, and the subsequent mean ridge axis position over
the intermountain west. Worst case leads to the more progressive
solution of the GFS and a net increase of mid level moisture from
the SE capable of isolated terrain buildups, but that even seems to
be a stretch attm. Though isolated diurnal PoPs exist in the day
6/7 timeframe over the most prone areas, take away points towards a
dry and increasingly warm period through the extended. Have
maintained a steady warming trend and max temps temps running
some 10 degrees above climo for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...North to northwest winds are expected to become
predominately southerly at the SLC Terminal between 03-04Z. Expect
any convection...and outflow winds...to remain south of the area
through the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Through MONDAY little change anticipated to going
pattern. Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms during mainly
the afternoon/evening hours will continue into Monday.,,with
temperatures remaining around late May norms. A weather
disturbance moving east through the region will sweep out much of
the moisture over the northern/central Utah...confining the
remaining convection to the southern third of the state.
Substantially warmer and drier air will spread across the state
beginning Tuesday. Strong high pressure aloft will settle over the
region for mid to late week. This high will produce much above
normal temps and dry conditions to begin June.

&&

.SLC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONGER
LONG TERM...MERRILL
AVIATION...KRUSE
FIRE WEATHER...

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php



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