Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 231652
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DEEP...MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS
CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CWA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT AND THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AS WELL AS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE SHORTWAVE PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING...EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
WANE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

BIGGEST QUESTION THIS MORNING IS WHETHER TO CANCEL THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE
WASATCH PLATEAU AND BOOKCLIFFS. GIVEN THAT LIGHT SNOW IS ONGOING
ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THE CURRENT TIME...WILL WAIT A FEW
HOURS...BUT CANCELLATION FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOKS LIKELY
LATER THIS MORNING.

NEXT QUESTION WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL REVIEW OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE 12Z GFS HAS SHIFTED A BIT WEST WITH THE PATH OF THE
SHORTWAVE...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A HIGHER THREAT OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UTAH. THIS MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE BUT WILL WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS TREND FURTHER WEST AS WELL. WILL ASSESS THE NEED FOR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AT THAT TIME.

UPDATED THE POP/WX GRIDS FOR THE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON TO DECREASE POPS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN AN END
TO PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST HALF AN
HOUR...SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE RAPIDLY IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY SO MAY NEED TO UPDATE A BIT LATER TO LOWER POPS
FURTHER.

&&

.AVIATION...CEILINGS AT THE SLC TERMINAL ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE
7000FT BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
REMAIN BELOW THAT LEVEL THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH 06Z...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CREATE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ006-010.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR UTZ007>009.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR UTZ517.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/SCHOENING

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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