Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 230322
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
922 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH LATE
WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WITHIN WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT HAS RAPIDLY SQUELCHED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
SAID WAA CAN BE NOTED IN THE 00Z KSLC RAOB WITH A STABLE LAYER
DESCENDING THROUGH H6...SIGNIFICANT DRYING NOTED ABOVE THIS WITH
BULK OF .80 PWAT REMAINING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS. UPDATED EARLIER
TO REMOVE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING AS THE PRIMARY EVENING UPDATE.

AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH THE MID
WEEK PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGHS CIRCULATION
TRANSITIONING OVERHEAD COME WEDNESDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
THEREAFTER ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...FURTHER WAA AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TURNING INLAND
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE 12Z MODELS AS THE DEEPENING
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS WAS STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THAN THE EC.
SO WHILE THE DETAILS VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS...BOTH THE 12Z GFS
AND THE 12Z EC INDICATE A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STARTED
INCREASING POPS DURING THIS PERIOD...THOUGH TIMING MAY VARY A BIT
AS MODELS BEGIN TO COALESCE INTO A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.
EITHER WAY...THIS WEEKEND LOOKS WET AND MUCH COOLER.


&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN ALLOWING MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL BY O6Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST PER NORM
BY 04Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/KRUSE


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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