Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 061652
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
952 AM PDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER THIS WEEK WITH DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...SAC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING FOOTHILLS LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY COOL START TO THE DAY TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT DELTA
BREEZE, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THOUGH SOME
SCATTERED MARINE STRATUS CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE DELTA AND INTO THE
SACRAMENTO METRO AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY DISPERSED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. NO
FORECAST UPDATE IS NEEDED.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE LAST WEEK...WITH
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST AND RIDGING TO THE
EAST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS FLOWING NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION, AND
SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN AN ISSUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THESE WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SIERRA CREST...WITH SOME POSSIBLE IN THE BURNEY BASIN AREA
AND IN THE LASSEN NATIONAL PARK AREA.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD, MOVING INLAND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS SPREADING
INTO THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF
THE LOW PASSES THROUGH. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

GFS AND EC MODELS HAVE THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENING ON FRIDAY INTO AN
OPEN TROUGH BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, A BROADER SYNOPTIC TROUGH PATTERN QUICKLY FOLLOWS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS SECONDARY TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE WEST COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH WILL RESIDE JUST OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE EXTENDED KEEPING OUR REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN THAT
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST AND MAY ALSO IMPACT THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY. BY SUNDAY, THE DESERT SW HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL
STRENGTHEN AND BUILD INTO OUR REGION CAUSING A WARMING TREND WITH
DRY WEATHER. THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL START OFF
5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM UP TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

JBB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH MARINE STRATUS QUICKLY DISPERSING
THIS MORNING. SOUTH WINDS 8-15 KT IN THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY (NW IN
THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY) WILL CONTINUE, WITH SW WIND GUSTS 25-35 KT
NEAR THE DELTA.

DANG/JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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