Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 312141
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
241 PM PDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.Synopsis...
Cooler, but still above normal weather expected this week. Weak
weather systems may bring a few showers to the mountains today and
Wednesday. Another chance of precipitation arrives this weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Weak cold front gradually tracking eastward across far NorCal. A
few isolated radar echoes skirted northern Shasta County this
afternoon, but radar shows most of the scattered showers to the
north across Del Norte & Siskiyou Counties and southern Oregon.

North to northwest winds have picked up in parts of the valley.
Observations from Redding and Red Bluff Airports show sustained
winds 12-20 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph. Stockton Airport and
Sacramento International Airport have been measuring 12-20 mph.
Expect these winds to continue this afternoon and then lessen
after 5 pm.

What a difference a day makes in the temperatures! Current
observations in the valley are ranging about 5-12 degrees cooler
than 24 hours ago. Our final daytime highs will still be sligthly
above normal, but much closer to seasonal numbers than the past
few days. Valley highs should peak in the low 70s for the Redding
vicinity to mid 70s around Stockton and Modesto.

Another short-wave will move through the area tomorrow which will
allow the cooler temperatures to stick around for another day.
Breezy north to northwest winds will return to the valley again
tomorrow morning and afternoon. A slight chance of showers will
persist for higher terrain except that this wave should spread showers
farther southward along the Sierra crest towards Tahoe. Snow
levels forecast to be around 5000 ft or higher, but moisture will
be limited so accumulations will be less than a half inch, if that.

Temperatures warm up again Thursday and Friday as the trough exits
eastward and ridging moves back over NorCal with dry weather.
North winds will be breezy again in the valley behind that trough on
Thursday. Gusts could reach 25-35 mph again, especially along the
western side of the valley. Daytime valley highs will get into
the mid to upper 70s on those days while higher terrain is in the
50s to upper 60s. This puts max temperatures about 5-10 degrees
above normal for interior NorCal.  JBB

&&

.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)

A low pressure system will drop SE from near Alaska into the Pac
NW this weekend into early next week. Several waves progged to
move along associated trough into NorCal by overnight Saturday
into Tuesday. Models in decent agreement but still vary a bit in
timing and strength of individual waves as the system rotates
inland. Despite differences, increasing confidence for now in at
least a few chances for precipitation Sunday into midweek. Because
main parent low will remain removed far to the north, best chances
will reside across northern mountains and Sierra Nevada with
lesser of a chance in the valley. Have raised chances a bit in
this time frame. Regardless of precip chances and areal coverage,
system will bring cooler temperatures (closer to normal) and
increased cloud cover. Cooler nature of system would also bring
the potential for snow below pass levels. Will keep on eye on this
as system moves closer.

CEO

&&

.Aviation...

VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Skies will generally
remain mostly clear outside of a few to sct high clouds across
northern terminals. Breezy northerly winds (gusts up to 25 kts)
possible through this evening and again during the day Wednesday.


&&

.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$






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