Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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FXUS66 KSTO 291039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
339 AM PDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Dry weather through the middle of next week with temperatures
climbing to well above normal. Mountain showers possible
by the end of next week.

High pressure over the west coast will bring another fair day
today. Airmass warming will bring up temperatures several degrees
with daytime highs today climbing to several degrees above
normal. Surface high pressure now over the Pacific Northwest is
forecast to shift into the northern Great Basin while upper ridge
axis shifts over the state. This will bring a continued decrease
in winds today with just light northerly breezes expected by this
afternoon. A shortwave trough riding over the upper ridge on
Sunday will have little impact except to keep temperatures
leveled off for the second half of the weekend. All and all,
looking like a very nice weekend ahead. Surface ridge noses back
into the Pacific Northwest on Monday behind the shortwave bringing
another round of breezy north winds although northwest upper flow
will only give moderate upper level support. As a result, winds
should not become exceptionally strong. Moderate surface gradients
will keep breezy north winds going on Tuesday. Meanwhile, upper
ridge continues to amplify Monday and Tuesday bringing continued
warming with daytime highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal
with still more warming going into mid week.



High pressure ridging peaks over the region Wednesday, with Valley
highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal, reaching into the upper 80s
to lower 90s for the Valley. Temperatures should begin to trend
down late in the week, but how much is uncertain. A weak system
brushes through late Thursday into Friday, with a a slight chance
of showers over the mountains of Shasta and western Plumas/Lassen
Park. Models diverge significantly by the weekend, with the
Canadian and ECMWF have a fairly sharp trough moving through,
while the GFS and GFS ensembles keep a broader, weaker trough
further to the west. For now, will keep precipitation confined to
the Sierra. The range of possible temperatures is large,
potentially very warm to below normal. For now, will keep a
blend, leaning towards slightly above normal. EK



VFR TAF sites next 24 hours. North winds around 10kt for most
locations today, with some gusts up to 20 kt Saturday afternoon
over the central/southern Sacrmaneto Valley. EK



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