Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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130 ACUS01 KWNS 191300 SWODY1 SPC AC 191258 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF KANSAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An organized swath of severe thunderstorm wind (potential derecho) is expected mainly across parts of Kansas this afternoon and evening, possibly extending into northern Oklahoma. Gusts of 75-100 mph are possible, along with large hail and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A broad fetch of westerly to southwesterly flow will cover most of the central CONUS. This will persist downstream from a synoptic- scale trough over the Pacific Northwest that should amplify into the Great Basin region through the period. The downstream flow field contains several embedded shortwaves, including a convectively generated perturbation now over parts of KS/NE. This feature should eject northeastward over the upper Mississippi Valley this evening, and away from the main threat area. However, an upstream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the Four Corners region -- will move east-northeastward and influence convective potential over the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Elsewhere aloft, a persistent trough was evident across portions of VA, the Carolinas, GA, and AL, with cyclonic flow downstream over the southern Atlantic Coast and as far south as most of the FL Peninsula. This trough should reach the NC/SC/GA coastlines and northwestern FL by 00Z, and south FL by 12Z tomorrow. The 11Z surface analysis showed a cold front from northeastern ON across Lower MI, western IL, west-central MO and east-central KS, where it is being overtaken by an outflow boundary arching southwestward across south-central KS to the OK Panhandle. The outflow boundary is expected to stall in the next few hours, then shift northward over southern and central KS through the day. A dryline extended from eastern CO across the western TX Panhandle to near LBB, MAF and northern Coahuila. The dryline should mix eastward slightly today, reaching near the KS/CO line and eastern TX Panhandle by mid/late afternoon. Elsewhere, a weak cold front was drawn from a low offshore from NC southwestward over northern FL, and should move slowly southward into central FL today. ...Central Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop during mid/late afternoon behind the dryline over the eastern Raton Mesa region, as well as along the dryline itself, and move east-northeastward to eastward into increasing moisture and instability. As they do, some of the activity should aggregate into clusters as smaller-scale outflows combine and enlarge. With supportive internal feedback of an organizing cold pool, associated forced ascent at the front and rear-inflow jet, and supportive midlevel winds for downward momentum transfer, as well as the residual and diurnally destabilized outflow boundary, the overall meso-alpha-scale pattern appears quite suitable for an organized, potentially significant-severe convective-wind swath to result. The most probable corridor for such growth still appears to be across KS in and near the "moderate risk" corridor, driven by wind probabilities. Initially separate dryline development over the northeastern TX Panhandle and northwestern OK may blend into (or even get undercut by outflow from) the broader event as well, after a few hours` discrete time to its south, with a threat of large hail, locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Other afternoon development, along the dryline, in the mountains of northern CO and southeastern WY, and over the Black Hills, may move east- northeastward across a narrow moist sector and produce severe gusts and hail into parts of the adjoining High Plains of western NE and the Dakotas. Near and behind the KS-to-Panhandles dryline segment, the storm- initiation environment will be characterized by increasing large-scale ascent and upper divergence ahead of the ejecting Four Corners shortwave trough, as well as strong diurnal heating, mixing and deepening of the boundary layer. Superposition of these effects will lead to nearly 9 deg C/km lapse rates throughout the lower/ middle troposphere, supporting 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE just east of the dryline. A deep subcloud layer conducive to strong-severe downdrafts will be available to storms over western KS from the beginning, and should support growth/merger of resultant outflows before activity moves into greater moisture. Forced ascent of the moist boundary layer should help to sustain the forward-propagating complex into strengthening nocturnal MLCINH at least across eastern KS, and perhaps into parts of the lower Missouri Valley, before it weakens tonight. ...FL... Scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the I-95 corridor and roughly between MIA and the Space Coast, along and south of a weak cold front. Organized multicells and a few supercells are possible, offering large hail and damaging to locally severe gusts before they move offshore. An active Atlantic sea-breeze pattern will be augmented by mid/upper support preceding the trough aloft. Strong diurnal heating, a deep troposphere and rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and 16.5-18.5 g/kg mean mixing ratios) will support 2000-3000 J/kg peak MLCAPE. Though weak near-surface winds will limit hodograph size, 30-45 kt effective-shear magnitudes and potential boundary interactions will support storm organization, including supercell potential. ..Edwards/Goss.. 05/19/2024 $$