Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 010530
SWODY2
SPC AC 010529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE AS IT SAGS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA.  GUSTY WINDS AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.  ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

...NORTH CENTRAL U.S...

NRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS MB INTO NWRN
ONTARIO BY 03/00Z WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL
MN...SWWD INTO ERN SD.  ALTHOUGH PRIMARY FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...STRONG HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT
WILL ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID 80S-NEAR
90F...ADEQUATE FOR SFC PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST WEAKLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS COULD EVOLVE AS MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VEERING
WITH HEIGHT...WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.  LATEST
THINKING IS SCT CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE BY 00Z THEN DRIFT SEWD
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ALSO
BE NOTED.  LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING
UPDRAFTS.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
THE LOWER BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND POSSIBLY DEEPEN TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD OVER SRN CA.  LATEST NAM DEPICTS MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG
THE ERN SEMI CIRCLE OF THIS FEATURE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2
PERIOD...THOUGH FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT WEAK
BUOYANCY DUE TO VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS.  IF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
MAY EXIST ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION.  GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE
PROBS...HOWEVER ROBUST TSTMS MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS
REGION SATURDAY.

...ELSEWHERE...

SCATTERED...PRIMARILY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD.  WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF LONG-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD
AID TSTM COVERAGE.  FORECAST INSTABILITY/SHEAR DO NOT APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

..DARROW.. 08/01/2014




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