Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 261726
SWODY2
SPC AC 261725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLE EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE 4-CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD WITH MODEST NWLY FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WY INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SFC FRONT
WILL EASE SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO SERN WY/NERN
CO...EXTENDING ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF KS BY 28/00Z.  WITHIN
UPSLOPE REGIONS OF WY/CO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WHERE VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT...AND BULK SHEAR...WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  A FEW SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT THEN PROPAGATE SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS SFC
PRESSURES BUILD AND WIND SHIFT ADVANCES SWD.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WELL EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...JUST EAST OF A WEAK SFC LOW
ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE WITHIN VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY HOT.
 LOW RH WITHIN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY ENHANCE GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS AND
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS...

WEAK LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP...MOIST PROFILES WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE THREAT ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MONDAY.  SFC-6KM
BULK SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN MODEST...SUPPORTING
PULSE-MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS.  FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING SUGGEST A FEW ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

..DARROW.. 06/26/2016

$$



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