Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 030531
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WEDNESDAY...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.

...FL...

EARLY-EVENING SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICT A
WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NEBRASKA.  THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SERN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY2
PERIOD...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL GOM AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FL BY 05/12Z.

SCT TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL...AND IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF.
WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...REASONABLY HIGH PW AND 35-40KT SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
SUGGEST STRONG CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY.  IT APPEARS
SFC FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM INITIATION AS IT SURGES
SEWD IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING ERN U.S. TROUGH.  SCT CONVECTION MAY
ALSO EVOLVE IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE DESPITE DEEPENING WLY FLOW
REGIME.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS WILL
BE THE MOST COMMON STORM MODE AND GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY REGION...

FOCUSED ZONE OF ASCENT...WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPSTREAM DIGGING
JET...WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID DAY FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TN VALLEY.  QUITE COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY 18Z WITH 500MB READINGS AOB
-20C NORTHEAST OF THE DIGGING JET.  THIS SHOULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FAIRLY EARLY ALONG SFC WIND
SHIFT.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...ROBUST UPDRAFTS
COULD GENERATE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE COLD THERMAL PROFILES.  AT THIS
TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR
MEANINGFUL SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 05/03/2016

$$



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