Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 291728
SWODY2
SPC AC 291727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL OCCUR FROM A PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIMITED THIS PERIOD.

...SYNOPSIS...

EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF MODEST WLYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH ONTARIO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS
VALLEY...THEN WWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHERE IT WILL STALL AND THEN
EXTEND NWWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...MIDDLE THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...

RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS FROM ERN KS...MO INTO
IA...NRN IL AND SRN WI. MEANWHILE A MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
MOIST PLUME IS EXPANDING NEWD ABOVE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. WITHIN
THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF
ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION
POTENTIAL...BUT MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG WHERE DIABATIC
WARMING OF THE SFC-LAYER IS MORE PREVALENT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES DURING THE DAY. WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING
CONFINED TO POST FRONTAL ZONE...WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE WEAK SUPPORTING MULTICELL AND PULSE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE LIKELY
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS...OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
STRONG TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 08/29/2016

$$


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