Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 250540
SWODY2
SPC AC 250539

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL HAIL SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NRN
GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E/SE AND REACH
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE
NE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL YIELD ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
SUN NIGHT AMIDST A MODESTLY RETURNING MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED
BY PW VALUES JUST OVER AN INCH. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LESSER
BUOYANCY BUT STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGH 850 MB DEW
POINTS AND MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS IN THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES. THE PREDOMINANT SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAK...FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF OTHER
GUIDANCE. GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
RIDGE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. A FEW STORMS WILL
PROBABLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

..GRAMS.. 10/25/2014




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