Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS02 KWNS 191726
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are forecast over east Texas into Louisiana and
northward into the Upper Midwest. A few storms could pose a marginal
risk for locally strong wind gusts over eastern Texas into southwest
Louisiana.

...Eastern Texas and Oklahoma through the lower Mississippi
Valley...

Southern-stream upper low will continue slowly through northern
Mexico and deep south Texas Monday while a northern-stream shortwave
trough advances through the upper Mississippi Valley region. A plume
of deep subtropical moisture will have advected through eastern TX
to MN, but corridor of richer boundary-layer moisture will remain
confined to the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Linear
MCS will likely be in progress from eastern TX through eastern OK,
but activity will be embedded within deep meridional winds,
suggesting only slow eastward progress during the day. Widespread
clouds and weak lapse rates will limit destabilization potential
downstream from ongoing storms. While effective bulk shear will
remain sufficient for a few embedded organized structures, tendency
will be for low-level winds to weaken as low-level jet shifts
northward with time. These limiting factors suggest overall severe
threat should remain marginal at best with primary threat being a
few instances of locally strong wind gusts.

...Upper Midwest...

A plume of seasonably rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid
50s) over IA/MO will advect northward into MN during the day.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely develop during the
morning to midday hours within a warm air advection regime. The
antecedent clouds will delay stronger surface heating ahead of the
front.  Only very weak buoyancy is expected, and forecast soundings
show a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE. Although a strong storm cannot be
ruled out, organized severe weather is not anticipated.

..Dial.. 02/19/2017

$$


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