Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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763 ACUS11 KWNS 101217 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101217 FLZ000-GAZ000-101445- Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Areas affected...Southeast Georgia...Northern and Central Florida Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229...230... Valid 101217Z - 101445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 229, 230 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage, hail and an isolated tornado threat are expected with an MCS, as it moves east-southeastward across southeastern Georgia and northern Florida. The severe threat could impact parts of north-central Florida later this morning, and that area will continue to be monitored for additional watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a well-developed MCS over southeast Georgia and northern Florida. The MCS will continue to move east-southeastward toward the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of hours. Ahead of the MCS, surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 70s F, and MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Jacksonville, FL WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots suggesting that the large-scale bowing line segment may remain organized. Wind damage will be possible along the leading edge of the more intense line segments. The VWP also has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2 which appears sufficient for an isolated tornado threat with rotating cells embedded in the line. ..Broyles.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 31968198 31648274 30958334 30328364 29788354 29258329 28698281 28438224 28398165 28538118 28838100 29348096 30538125 31618116 31968198