000
ACUS11 KWNS 312219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312218
NEZ000-312345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 312218Z - 312345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS ERN NEB. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MESOSCALE LOW NEAR GRAND
ISLAND NEB WITH A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER ERN NEB WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS IS RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE MID MO VALLEY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. THE WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL THREAT THROUGH MID-EVENING.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/31/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42419757 42419814 42069855 41309846 40379778 40179722
            40319665 40959632 41739664 42419757