000
ACUS11 KWNS 270704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270704
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-270900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0856
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272...

Valid 270704Z - 270900Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 272
continues.

SUMMARY...A small cluster of strong/locally severe storms continues
across the Ozarks vicinity, where large hail and locally damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a small cluster of strong
storms crossing parts of southwest MO and adjacent northern AR, with
the strongest cell -- a severe storm which has recently produced 2"
hail -- now crossing Boone County AR just south of the MO/AR border.

The storms are ongoing within a favorable thermodynamic environment,
near the nose of a subtle 30 to 35 kt low-level jet per recent VWP
data from area radars.  Surface analysis reveals a weak mesolow over
northeast OK, with a mesoscale warm front extending east-northeast
into northwest AR/southwest MO -- i.e. across the region where
storms are ongoing.  With this boundary -- and the aforementioned
low-level jet -- providing a source of low-level ascent, and with
the kinematic and thermodynamic environment supportive of
organized/rotating updrafts, local severe risk will likely continue
across this area over the next several hours.

..Goss.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35779453 36049468 36619446 36929404 37119243 37259117
            36049058 35639154 35779453