000
ACUS11 KWNS 301905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301904
WVZ000-OHZ000-302030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1746
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WV AND SERN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 301904Z - 302030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. WW ISSUANCE
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED NNE OF
CHARLESTON WV ALONG A SFC OCCLUSION/BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A LOBE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE ERN HALF OF AN UPPER LOW OVER KY/SRN IND
AS OF 19Z. ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION /MUCAPE GENERALLY 100-500
J/KG/...STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH HEIGHT PER RECENT VWP ESTIMATES
FROM KRLX SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION/ORGANIZATION
IN THE SHORT TERM. LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PRIMARY
THREAT...WITH SEVERAL ESTIMATED 1.75 INCH HAIL REPORTS RECEIVED AS
OF 1850Z IN N-CNTRL WV. LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN N OF ONGOING CONVECTION
WHERE SOME SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED. MUCAPE DECREASES RAPIDLY WITH
NWD EXTENT INTO SERN OH PER RAP MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES...AND THE
PROSPECT FOR A PROLONGED SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS AREA REMAINS LOW.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION OVER
N-CNTRL WV...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SWD EXTENT ALONG THE OCCLUSION/BOUNDARY.

..GLEASON/DIAL.. 09/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...

LAT...LON   38128149 39008186 39418237 39818262 40088223 40048154
            39898080 39268081 38038106 38128149