Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 212139
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212139
AZZ000-CAZ000-212345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...LWR CO RIVER VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212139Z - 212345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...RECENT KYUX RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEWD PROGRESSING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE TSTMS OVER FAR S-CNTRL CA. LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS OUTFLOW.

BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
WELL-MIXED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. THESE
INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL HELP SUPPORT STRONG/SVR WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES DCAPE OVER THE AREA AROUND
1000 J/KG. FARTHER E /S-CNTRL AZ/...BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONSIDERABLY
COOLER /LOW 80S/...LIMITING THE EWD EXTENT OF POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...VEF...

LAT...LON   32671593 33361589 33811561 34131490 34151434 33931378
            33301317 32891305 32041312 32201394 32471457 32651499
            32671593



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