000
ACUS11 KWNS 161024
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161023
KSZ000-161230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Areas affected...central through north-central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 161023Z - 161230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to pose a threat for a few strong to
damaging wind gusts through 13Z across a part of north central KS,
but a diminishing trend is expected thereafter. Remaining extent and
duration of the severe threat is not expected to be sufficient for a
WW.

DISCUSSION...Early this morning a line of storms extends from north
central into central KS and is moving east at 30-35 kt. Several
measured gusts from 50 to around 60 mph have been recorded with a
portion of the line over north central KS. Activity is being
sustained by a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet that is enhancing
convergence and ascent along the cold pool and supporting a forward
propagating MCS. The atmosphere remains moderately unstable through
central and a part of east central KS, and storms will remain
capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts next couple hours.
However, tendency will be for the low-level jet to veer and weaken
after 13Z as a shortwave trough over eastern NE continues into the
upper MS valley region, and this process should result in some
weakening beyond that time.

..Dial/Grams.. 08/16/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   39419801 39439699 39169652 38889672 38789755 38989832
            39419801