Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 211915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211915
UTZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NV INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
UT AND NORTHWEST AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 211915Z - 212045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NV INTO SOUTHWEST UT AND FAR
NORTHWEST AZ. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AND A
WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HEATING RESULTS IN WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL
SIDE THIS AFTERNOON /MAINLY 70S/...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATE...INCREASING DCAPE AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AS CELLS QUICKLY MIGRATE TOWARD
THE N/NE. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST AT BEST EXCEPT
NEAR THE UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT RESIDE.
THIS...COUPLED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY /LESS THAN 1000 J PER KG
MLCAPE/ SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF AND ISOLATED. A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 09/21/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...REV...

LAT...LON   36481403 36511342 36701302 37041297 37661271 38281289
            39401336 39901398 40141461 40391540 40511622 40451685
            40031737 39551762 39181779 38891782 38241752 37591696
            37171656 36851571 36661482 36481403



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