000
ACUS11 KWNS 121544
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121543
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-121815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0178
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1043 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...NRN VA...SRN PA...WRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 121543Z - 121815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SHALLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT MAY
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT
TRAVELS EWD ALONG A WARM FRONT OVER SRN PA DURING THE DAY AND ACROSS
SRN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. TRAILING THE LOW IS A STRONG COLD FRONT
WHERE SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES ARE BEING OBSERVED.
MEANWHILE...SWLY WINDS IN THE LOW-LEVELS ARE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR NEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...AS OF 15Z DEWPOINTS WERE RELATIVELY LOW WITH LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY NOTED ON MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DAMAGING WINDS IS
LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WHERE FORCING WILL HELP COMPENSATE
FOR LACK OF INSTABILITY. THE STRONGER RADAR ECHOS CURRENTLY OVER
SERN OH AS OF 1540Z ARE A REFLECTION OF THIS FORCING. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD TODAY.

AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS MAY SEE AN INCREASING THREAT BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ACROSS VA INTO THE DELMARVA.

..JEWELL/HART.. 03/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   39788087 40377920 40467839 40247820 39737841 38427926
            37837973 37128052 36918119 36908284 37108322 38138232
            39408136 39788087