Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS11 KWNS 241627
SPC MCD 241626

Mesoscale Discussion 0089
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1026 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Areas affected...Northeast TX to Eastern AR

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 241626Z - 241730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Tornado watch will be issued soon to address an increasing
severe threat from northeast TX into AR.

DISCUSSION...Strong short-wave trough is ejecting into the central
Plains today. In response to this feature LLJ is expected to
markedly increase across the Arklatex over the next few hours.
Surface pressure falls are focused across KS/eastern OK/extreme
northeast TX, suggesting weak surface low will track into eastern OK
over the next few hours. This evolution should encourage a
well-defined surface warm front to gradually lift north...though the
primary baroclinic zone should remain oriented southwest-northeast
along a corridor from extreme southeast OK to near the MO Bootheel.
Convection is beginning to strengthen along the front across the
Metroplex and this activity should increase in areal
coverage/intensity as it spreads downstream along the aforementioned
boundary. Supercells are likely, given the observed shear, though an
upward evolving squall line should ultimately form as convection
matures across AR. While surface heating will be limited across the
warm sector, ample buoyancy is in place for robust updrafts and a
few strong tornadoes are possible. With time damaging winds should
materialize as squall line becomes more established.

..Darrow/Hart.. 02/24/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


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