Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 162321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162320
LAZ000-TXZ000-170315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0029
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0520 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Areas affected...Middle/upper TX Coast...Southeast LA

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 162320Z - 170315Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing mixed winter precipitation is expected to persist
for the next few hours. Primary precipitation type will likely be
sleet.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar data shows an area of relatively heavier
precipitation across portions of the middle TX coast moving
east-southeastward. Higher reflectivities have been noted across
portions of Wharton and Fort Bend counties with corresponding lower
correlation coefficients. This represents a broad area of melting
hydrometeors, which corroborates the 0 degree C isothermal layer
from 850-700 mb shown on recent RAP forecast soundings. Given the
presence of this layer, a transition to all snow seems unlikely,
with the most dominant precipitation type remaining sleet for the
next few hours. Precipitation will gradually taper off during this
time, from northwest to southeast, as subsidence and dry air
advection continue to dry the low-level levels.

..Mosier.. 01/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29029662 29889598 30459418 30489280 30079202 29569228
            29789325 29679381 29389480 28659593 29029662



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