000
ACUS11 KWNS 181548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181548
FLZ000-181745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NCNTRL FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181548Z - 181745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL AND
NCNTRL FL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NCNTRL
FL...NORTH OF THE TAMPA AND MELBOURNE AREAS. A MOIST WARM SECTOR
RESIDES SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F. A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS PERSISTS ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER
THE ERN GULF NWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER NRN FL WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NORTH OF THE FRONT. STORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND WEST OF TAMPA HAVE
SHOWN EVIDENCE OF SOME ORGANIZATION INCLUDING ROTATING COMMA HEADS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES AT TIMES. ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30
KT. WIDESPREAD CIRRUS FROM ANVIL DEBRIS HAS OVERSPREAD A SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...BUT FILTERED SUN SHOULD RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 80S IN CNTRL FL...SUPPORTING UP TO
1500 J/KG MLCAPE.

A 40 KT SLY LLJ AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR SHOULD PROMOTE
CONTINUED EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE OFFSHORE SQUALL LINE INTO THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. TREND HAS BEEN FOR NEAR SFC WINDS TO VEER
OVER CNTRL FL...AND THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS. THEREFORE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE SQUALL LINE WEST OF
TAMPA SHOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EMBEDDED MESOCYCLONES...ESPECIALLY WITH
STORMS ON NRN END OF LINE THAT MAY INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT. OTHER
MORE DISCRETE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. THESE
STORMS COULD POSE SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS THEY
LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT.

..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   29368295 29838219 29618123 28518077 27638088 26908126
            26758219 27498261 28778271 29368295