Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 290622
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290622
TXZ000-290745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0833
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...

VALID 290622Z - 290745Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED...BUT COULD PERSIST SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
LOWER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
DAYBREAK.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF THE LARGE ONGOING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
FORWARD/EAST SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY
MODEST...AROUND 30 KT...AND 3 SECOND PEAK GUSTS AT MOST OBSERVATION
SITES HAVE BEEN 40 KT OR LESS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE.

THE EXCEPTION HAS BEEN A RECENT SEVERE GUST RECORDED AT LACKLAND
AFB...ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.  THIS IS WHERE
WEAKENING TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER...PERHAPS AIDED BY STRONGER
SYSTEM RELATIVE INFLOW ALONG A 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS.
GIVEN THE VERY MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE /CAPE OF 2000+ J PER KG/
AIR AHEAD OF THE GUST FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...IT MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD HELP MAINTAIN VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  STRONGEST ACTIVITY
MAY TEND TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD...INLAND OF COASTAL AREAS...TOWARD THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FOCUSED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF STRONGER
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR.  THIS
COULD INCLUDE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG SURFACE
GUSTS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   28629893 28939876 29179826 29089779 27949745 27109729
            26309769 26229853 27009910 28029956 28519993 28629907
            28629893



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