000
ACUS11 KWNS 252053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252053
TXZ000-NMZ000-252300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252053Z - 252300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms capable of isolated large hail and/or
damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon across the southern
High Plains.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures across the region have warmed into the
upper 70s to low 80s under mostly clear skies, eroding any previous
convective inhibition. Modest large-scale forcing for ascent
combined with favorable orographic circulations has resulted in the
development of widely scattered thunderstorms within this moderately
unstable and uncapped environment. Sheared kinematic environment,
characterized by southeasterly surface winds and southwesterly wind
aloft, is favorable for a few more organized/rotating storms.
Primary severe threat with these more organized storms is isolated
large hail although a few strong wind gusts are also possible.
However, current expectation is for thunderstorm coverage to remain
widely scattered and for instances of severe weather to remain
isolated, largely as a result of only modest instability and weak
large-scale forcing for ascent.  As such, a severe thunderstorms
watch is not currently anticipated.

..Mosier/Hart.. 09/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   31000481 32620509 34640457 34460296 32110245 30350237
            29060294 29370418 31000481