Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 061923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061922
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...WEST TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061922Z - 062145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.  WW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S F HAVE RESULTED IN A CORRIDOR OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST TX AND WESTERN OK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SHOW A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM IN THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR STORM-SCALE DOWNBURSTS IN THE
MORE INTENSE CORES.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEERING FLOW SUGGEST
STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND RATHER SHORT-LIVED.  CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT A WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

..HART/MEAD.. 07/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   35700083 37009933 36999819 36309831 34150018 32330073
            30530218 30110330 30840381 31810337 34230282 35240161
            35700083



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