Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 250721 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 321 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tuesday)...
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A highly amplified flow pattern continues this morning across the CONUS with deep troughing over the western states and Rockies, and large scale upper ridging extending from the Great Lakes and New England south to the Southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. Aside from the pronounced upper storm over the west, Hurricane Maria is the only feature of note this morning. Despite Maria remaining well north and east of the Florida peninsula, subtle changes in the surface pressure pattern as a result of Maria`s motion will drive local weather over the next couple of days. A weak upper low continues to spin over the northern Gulf of Mexico this morning. At the surface, high pressure remains north of the region with persistent light east/northeast flow. As the flow becomes a bit more northerly later this afternoon, drier air will begin to slowly invade from the north. This combined with weak subsidence/sinking motion on the western fringes of Maria should yield lesser coverage of showers and storms this afternoon. Still, a low chance of a few showers and an isolated storm will persist. Odds will be greater over interior sections of the peninsula this afternoon, where east/west coast seabreezes collide amidst a very weak pressure gradient. Showers and storms may linger into the evening before diminishing. Highs will be similar to yesterday in the lower 90s most areas, except near the coast where upper 80s can be expected. For Tuesday, dry air will continue to spill into the region, with most areas expected to remain dry through the day. There may be just enough moisture over south Florida for a stray shower or thunderstorm, but coverage will be very limited. Highs may be a touch warmer as lesser cloud cover and drier air allow for more efficient heating, but lower to possibly mid 90s will generally be the rule across the region. .Mid/Long Term (Tuesday Night through next Monday)... Drier air will remain in place across the area on Wednesday with rain chances pretty limited. May be able to squeeze out a little precip across the far southern zones but looks like most areas will remain dry. We will begin to see an increase in moisture on Thursday and this trend will continue into the weekend with PW values forecast to increase into the 1.7-2 inch range by the weekend. SCT rain chances will be mainly limited to SW Florida on Thursday but by Friday much of the CWA will return to PoPs in the 30-50 percent range and this will continue into the weekend. Temperatures will top out within a few degrees of 90 daily with lows in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION (06z TAFs)...
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VFR conditions expected to unfold through the TAF period. Light northeast winds will become northwesterly during the afternoon due to the seabreeze, becoming light and variable again after 00z Tues.
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&& .MARINE...
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Light east to northeast flow will become more northerly as high pressure lifts northwest of the region. As the gradient will remain light, the seabreeze will allow winds to shift onshore near the coast each afternoon. Dry conditions are expected much of the coming week, with gradually increasing rain chances by the weekend. No marine hazards are expected during this time.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Despite a period of drier weather and warm temperatures through at least mid week, humidities will remain well above critical levels. Rain chances will slowly increase late week into the weekend, and no fire weather concerns are expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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TPA 76 90 76 90 / 10 10 0 10 FMY 76 91 75 90 / 10 20 10 20 GIF 74 92 73 93 / 20 10 10 10 SRQ 75 88 75 88 / 0 10 0 10 BKV 70 91 72 92 / 10 10 0 10 SPG 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 0 10
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&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...11/McKaughan

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