Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 250721 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 321 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today - Wednesday)... Sprawling upper level ridging centered over the central and southern high plains slides toward the Deep South as a short wave trough tracks from the central Gulf coastal states to just off the southeast U.S. coast. In response an Atlantic upper ridge will reside over most of the FL peninsula today then shift southward some and weaken slightly tonight and Wed. At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure stretches from the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico with an axis across FL in the vicinity of Tampa Bay and Lake Okeechobee. Drier air from the Gulf will continue across much of the area with model PWAT values of 1.3 to 1.5 inches in the northern and central counties but 1.5 to up to 2 inches for the far southeast and southern counties. The surface gradient will be relaxed with generally light winds...southwest and west north of Tampa Bay. Locations south of the bay will see southeast to south winds...except becoming southwest to west during afternoon sea breezes. Showers and thunderstorms will be somewhat limited for the end of July. POPs run 20 to 40 percent with the highest odds in southeastern and southern locations during the afternoons. Although a few storms in the northeast Gulf later tonight may traverse the Nature coast Wed morning. Temperatures will run on the warm side of normal...by 2-3 degrees for the highs and 2-4 degrees for the lows. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night - Monday)... Little change in the overall forecast philosophy from yesterday at this time. Mid level troughing near the South Carolina coast extending southwest across the northern Florida peninsula and Panhandle will keep the subtropical ridge suppressed across the south-central Florida through Friday. During the upcoming weekend and into early next week a stronger amplifying upper level trough developing over the eastern U.S. will push the subtropical ridge even further south to lie across the Florida Straits as the southern extension of the upper level trough and an attendant cold front moves into the southeastern states and northern Gulf coast region. With the surface ridge axis forecast to remain across the south central Florida peninsula through Friday, and then across the Florida Straits during the upcoming weekend and into early next week a persistent onshore southwest to westerly wind flow will continue across the entire forecast area through the period. This flow regime will continue to favor late night and early morning shower and thunderstorm development over the adjacent Gulf waters daily with this convection then pushing onshore along the coast during the morning hours, then spreading to inland locations each afternoon. Lingering dry mid level air should continue to keep the overall convective coverage and pops slightly below seasonal norms through Saturday, then higher storm coverage and pops should return during Sunday and Monday as deep layered moisture increases and a cyclonic flow aloft develops over the states courtesy of the aforementioned upper level trough to the north. It will remain warm and muggy especially along the coast where overnight lows in the upper 70s to around 80 can be expected daily with mid 70s inland areas, with daytime highs climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast, and lower to mid 90s inland areas with heat indices reaching into the 100 to 105 degree range each afternoon. && .AVIATION... 25/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions prevail much of the period. ISOLD TSRA are expected near inland and southern terminals BTWN 18Z and 00Z. Calm to light and variable winds for the rest of the night shift to onshore late morning and through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Atlantic high pressure ridges out over the Gulf with an axis through south central FL. This will provide SW to W winds across northern waters and SE to S winds...but shifting to onshore in afternoon sea breezes...for southern waters. The ridge axis slips down to near the Keys for the weekend with SW to W winds for all waters. Main concern will be thunderstorms with locally high wind speeds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... While some slightly drier air continues across the area with lower rain chances the RH values stay above critical levels. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 20 FMY 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 40 30 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 20 20 30 30 SRQ 92 78 92 78 / 10 10 10 20 BKV 93 74 93 75 / 10 10 20 20 SPG 91 79 91 80 / 10 10 10 20 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael

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