Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS62 KTBW 262344 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 744 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017 .UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Inherited forecast is on track. Only minor adjustments have been made to the forecast in terms of the winds and temperature curve overnight. 23Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis showing a benign and seasonable weather pattern in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. Significant trough/shortwave energy currently ejecting out of the central Plains into the Ohio/TN/Lower MS valleys...will de-amplify and shift east and northeast through Thursday...as upper ridging over the eastern seaboard prevents this system from every threatening our region. The associated cold front will simply run out of gas as it reaches the FL panhandle...and all synoptic forcing for showers will shift far to our north through the day. Thereafter as we head into Friday and the upcoming weekend, the synoptic pattern aloft and at the surface takes on a real summer-like look. The sensible weather will take on a real summer-like feel. Still a bit early in the season in terms of thunderstorms, with sea surface temps still a few degrees too cool, and plenty of hostile air aloft in terms of thermodynamics, would anticipate the forecast to remain mostly dry through at least Sunday. Can a very isolated shower pop up on the sea-breeze one of these afternoon? Sure, its possible, but the chances of any spot seeing rain are extremely remote. The real story Thursday through the weekend will be the very warm temperatures. Many locations away from the immediate coast will have good chances at reaching 90, with inland locations almost certainly surpassing 90. Even the beaches are going to see temperatures well into the 80s before afternoon sea-breeze flow knocks there temps back down toward the lower 80s. Have a great evening everyone and stay cool in the days to come.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
Basically looking at VFR condition prevailing for the duration of the TAF period. Only exceptions could be at KLAL/KPGD where a brief period of shallow field fog is possible in the hour or two surrounding sunrise, however, no significant vis restrictions are anticipated. Any field fog burns off quickly in the AM, leading to benign aviation conditions for the remainder of the day. Light SE winds early in the AM will increase to between 10-15 knots and transition south and then SW during the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion...
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 321 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017/ SHORT TERM (Tonight-Thursday)... Mid/upper level shortwave trough will swing through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys moving by to the north of the region with its associated cold front weakening and dissipating before it reaches the forecast area. The mid/upper level dynamics will remain well to the north of the area and with limited moisture not expecting any precipitation. What we will see however is an increase temperatures and humidity as the southeast to south flow continues around surface high pressure ridging west from well out in the Atlantic Ocean with a shift to southwest near the coast as the sea breeze develops Thursday afternoon. The increase in low level moisture along with the mostly clear skies could lead to some patchy fog over inland areas late tonight. Otherwise temperatures will be above normal with lows in the mid 60s to around 70 tonight and climbing into the mid 80s coast to the lower 90s inland Thursday. MID TERM/LONG TERM (Thursday Night - Wednesday)... An upper level low sits over northern Minnesota with broad troughing extending over the western half of the U.S. Upper level ridging continues to hold over the Florida peninsula into the long term period. The troughing over the western U.S. will further deepen by Saturday as a closed upper low moves southeast and will be located over the four corners region. As the trough out west deepens, the ridge over the southeast U.S. will strengthen and build northeastward toward Bermuda. The pattern shifts east by the beginning of next week with the closed upper low now located over the Great Lakes region and the upper ridge moving east into the western Atlantic. The upper low moves northeast by midweek and a quasi-zonal flow sets up over Florida. On the surface, an area of low pressure over Ontario extends a cold front southward along the east coast. This front dissipates over northern Florida as high pressure continues to ridge across the peninsula through the end of the week and into the weekend. This will keep a southeast through southwest wind flow over the area which will result in above average temperatures with the inland counties seeing daytime highs in the 90`s. Rain free conditions will also continue through Sunday. An area of low pressure develops over Missouri on Sunday and extends a cold front south through Louisiana and eastern Texas. This system tracks east and will bring increasing rain chances (30-50 POPs) to Florida on Monday and Tuesday. MARINE... Southeast to south flow will persist into early next week with a shift to southwest near the coast each afternoon. Winds will generally remain around 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less. Winds could reach exercise caution criteria late tonight and early Thursday morning across the northern waters for a short period and then across the offshore waters Saturday night and Sunday night. FIRE WEATHER... Relative humidity values are expected to dip into the middle and upper 30s each afternoon through the weekend, but critical durations are not expected and sustained winds should remain less than 15 mph. Therefore, no red flag conditions are anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
TPA 73 88 73 90 / 0 0 0 10 FMY 69 91 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 GIF 67 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 20 SRQ 70 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 10 BKV 63 91 66 93 / 0 0 0 20 SPG 71 86 74 89 / 0 0 0 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Mroczka Previous Discussion...Close/Wynn

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.