Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000 FXUS62 KTBW 231145 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 645 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017 .AVIATION...
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Scattered showers will continue to drift northeast through the morning, with increasing chances of MVFR ceilings and visibilities, or perhaps some occasional IFR. After 12z, rain and thunderstorms chances will increase through the rest of the day and into Thursday night, with MVFR ceilings possible at just about any time.
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/issued 252 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017/ SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)... Early morning IR satellite and radar returns are showing a band of clouds and showers associated with a mid level trough and elongated surface low streaming off the eastern Gulf of Mexico and into Florida. Through the rest of today and tonight, this trough and surface low will continue to shift east into the area, bringing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms, as well as considerable cloudiness. While it isn`t expected to rain all day in any one location, much of the area is expected to see prolonged periods of rain throughout the day. With the exception of a few of the stronger storms, most of the rain will be light to moderate in intensity, so extreme rain totals and flooding are not expected. The rain and clouds will also keep temperatures in check, with afternoon highs expected to run in the upper 60s and 70s across the area. On Friday, the trough will continue to move east across the area, with drier low level air filling in from north to south. Scattered showers and a few storms will still be possible, mainly during the morning hours, but by the afternoon and evening, convection is expected to dissipating and will shift south and east of the area. MID-LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)... Eastern North American longwave trough to rotate into the W Atlantic this weekend as southern end trailing short wave troughiness to remain over the region into early next week as model solutions diverge at the end of the forecast timeframe. At the surface, weak high pressure builds into the region that quickly gets reinforced by stronger cool/dry Canadian airmass to end the weekend into Monday. High pressure moves into the W Atlantic with conditions moderating Tues/Wed. Continue to expect cool and pleasant fall conditions this weekend into early next week for the area with temps about 3-5 degrees below climate averages, which should feel even cooler compared to the above normal fall conditions we`ve already observed. AVIATION... Scattered showers will continue to drift northeast through the rest of the overnight period, with increasing chances of MVFR ceilings and visibilities, or perhaps some occasional IFR. After 12z, rain and thunderstorms chances will increase through the rest of the day and into Thursday night, with MVFR ceilings possible at just about any time. MARINE... An area of low pressure in the eastern Gulf will stretch northeast through the Florida Peninsula today and tonight, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The low will also cause winds to increase to cautionary levels over the Gulf waters, mainly from around the Tampa Bay north. Wind speeds will gradually subside through the day on Friday, as high pressure builds in from the north and rain chances clear out. High pressure will hold north of the area through the weekend and into early next week, with winds and seas expected to remain below headline criteria. FIRE WEATHER... Humidity will remain well above critical threshold through the weekend
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 74 64 72 61 / 80 60 40 10 FMY 78 67 77 63 / 60 50 40 10 GIF 75 64 73 58 / 70 50 50 10 SRQ 75 65 73 60 / 70 60 40 10 BKV 73 61 70 54 / 90 60 50 10 SPG 74 64 72 61 / 80 60 40 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ AVIATION...74/Wynn DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin

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