Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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AXUS72 KTBW 202155

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL
545 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Severe Drought persists across west central and southwest

Even with some occasional bouts of rain and thunderstorms over the
last few months, rainfall has run significantly below climatic
normals since October 2016.  Warm dry conditions has caused the
drought to gradually increase in severity across the region.
Overall, rainfall since October 1, 2016 ranges from 4 inches to a
little over 11 inches, which is about 7 to 15 inches below normal,
or 22 to 59 percent of normal.

Above normal temperatures and near to below normal rainfall is
expected for the next couple of months leading into the Summer
rainy season which usually does not start until the second or
third week of June.

The Severe Drought area remains unchanged this week and covers
all but Levy, Citrus and northern Sumter counties where
Abnormally Dry conditions still exist.

A Phase One Moderate Water Shortage continues for Sumter county.
Elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida the standard
year-round water conservation measures remain in effect at this
time. However, some local governments have adopted water shortage
orders with alternate schedules, so be sure to check with your
city or county to see if any are in effect.

The widespread warm and dry conditions has increased the threat
of wildfires across West Central and Southwest Florida and burn
bans are now in effect for Citrus, Hernando, Pasco, Polk and
Highlands counties. Daily minimum relative humidity values
combined with winds will determine the daily threat level.
Keetch Byram Drought Index values have fluctuated over the past
few weeks and are currently running from near 200 over northern
portions of Levy county to over 650 across most of the central
and southern interior, as well as Southwest Florida. This scale
runs from zero (saturated) to 800 (extreme dryness). Current
values are in the very low to severe range for mid-April. Without
significant rainfall these values will likely continue to increase
over the next few weeks

The following table gives the rainfall from October 1, 2016 to
April 20, 2017, the 1981-2010 30 year normal, the departure from
normal, and the percent of normal, for sites across West Central
and Southwest Florida:

                        Site  Observed  30 Yr   Dep fm   Percent
Station                  Id   Rainfall  Normal  Normal  of Normal

Tampa                    TPA:   6.53    15.79    -9.26     41%
St Pete/Clearwater       PIE:   4.15    18.97   -14.82     22%
St Petersburg            SPG:   5.70    18.14   -12.44     31%
Winter Haven             GIF:   6.98    17.99   -11.01     39%
Sarasota-Bradenton       SRQ:   7.14    18.35   -11.21     39%
Punta Gorda              PGD:   8.58    16.31    -7.73     53%
Fort Myers/Page Field    FMY:   5.42    15.01    -9.59     36%
Fort Myers/SW Intl Apt   RSW:   4.06    15.67   -11.61     26%
Chiefland 5 SE         CHIF1:   9.19    23.02   -13.83     40%
Inverness 3 SE         INVF1:  10.76    18.89    -8.13     57%
Tarpon Springs         TRPF1:   5.44    19.91   -14.47     27%
Plant City             PLCF1:   8.56    17.72    -9.16     48%
Lakeland               LLDF1:  11.20    19.14    -7.94     59%
Bartow                 BARF1:   8.19    17.74    -9.55     46%
Mountain Lake          LWLF1:   9.01    17.12    -8.11     53%
Bradenton 5 ESE        BRAF1:  10.44    18.49    -8.05     56%
Fort Green 12 WSW      FTGF1:   9.73    16.83    -7.10     58%
Wauchula 2 N           WAUF1:   8.27    17.39    -9.12     48%
Venice                 VNCF1:   8.92    18.03    -9.11     49%
Arcadia                ARCF1:   8.58    15.86    -7.28     54%
Archbold Bio Stn       ACHF1:   7.72    16.93    -9.21     46%
Punta Gorda 4 ESE      PNTF1:   7.63    15.54    -7.91     49%

The following table gives the rainfall from October 1, 2016 to
March 31, 2017 the 1981-2010 30 year normal, the departure from
normal, and the percent of normal, for a few sites across West
Central and Southwest Florida:

                        Site  Observed  30 Yr   Dep fm   Percent
Station                  Id   Rainfall  Normal  Normal  of Normal

Bushnell 1 E           BSHF1:   7.95    17.22    -9.27     46%
St Leo                 STLF1:   6.40    18.44   -12.04     35%
Myakka River St Pk     MKCF1:   9.04    17.29    -8.25     52%
Desoto City 8 SW       DSCF1:   5.53    14.34    -8.81     39%

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 6-10 day and 8-14 day
outlooks call for above normal temperatures and near to below
normal precipitation.

Meanwhile, the long range outlooks from the CPC for the rest of
April, and for the three-month period of April, May, and June,
is for better chances of above normal temperatures to continue
with equal chances of below normal, near normal, or above normal

Streamflows across the area are generally below climatological
normals and mostly in the lowest 25th percentile with many in the
lowest tenth percentile. Little change is expected for the next
few weeks without significant rainfall.

The next statement will be issued by April 28, 2017.

Additional information on the current drought conditions may be
found at the following web sites:

U.S. Drought Monitor...

NOAA Drought Page...

Climate Prediction Center...

Southeast Regional Climate Center...

Florida Forest Service...

Southwest Florida Water Management District...

South Florida Water Management District...

Suwannee River Water Management District...

United States Geological Survey...

Information for this report was provided by the following:
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center, National
Drought Mitigation Center, Florida Forest Service, United States
Geological Survey, Southwest Florida Water Management District
and South Florida Water Management District.

WFO Tampa Bay - Ruskin, FL
2525 14th Avenue SE
Ruskin, FL 33570
Phone: 813-645-2323
E-mail: sr-tbw.webmaster@noaa.gov



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