Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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408
FXUS65 KTFX 061129
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
530 AM MDT FRI MAY 6 2016

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING EAST-
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MT EARLY THIS MORNING. MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY WAS CONCENTRATED IN A BAND EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
ALONG THE HILINE, AND WAS GENERALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE AS A POST
FRONTAL COOL AIR MASS DEEPENED OVER THE REGION. THE SHOWERS
INITIATED LATE THURSDAY IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, AND APPEAR NOW TO
BE SUSTAINED BY WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BENEATH AN AREA OF
DIVERGENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIGHT-FRONT JET ENTRANCE
REGION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS BAND OF SHOWERS WILL
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS ANOTHER AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OVER THE STALLED
SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MT AND MAINTAIN RAIN SHOWERS
TODAY FOR THIS AREA. HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY,
PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES TREND BACK ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. PN

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE DOMINATE INFLUENCE ON MONTANA WEATHER
NEXT WEEK. COOL TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH FORM
A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY LEAVING MONTANA BENEATH A
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RECOVERING BACK TOWARD
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY, MODELS ARE IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH DETAILS BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF
THE PRIMARY DAKOTAS LOW BRINGING ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. MPJ

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1130Z.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING A COOLER AND MOISTER AIRMASS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT THERE WILL
BE AREAS IFR/MVFR IN LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  60  40  73  44 /  30  10   0   0
CTB  63  37  72  41 /  30   0   0   0
HLN  62  41  74  44 /  40  20  10  10
BZN  62  40  68  39 /  40  20  10  10
WEY  58  38  57  35 /  40  40  30  20
DLN  61  41  67  41 /  50  30  20  20
HVR  69  39  75  42 /  30   0   0   0
LWT  61  40  69  43 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS



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