Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 241214
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 AM MDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday...Southwest flow aloft will continue over
the area until an upper trough moves into western Montana Sunday.
Snow showers over the mountains of the Rocky Mountain Front will
diminish the rest of Thursday night into this morning. Meanwhile
showers will increase over the western mountains of southwest
Montana today. An area of lift is expected to develop over
southwest Montana this afternoon then spread north tonight. Expect
scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains as a result and
there will also be a slight chance of a light shower over the
east slopes. Drier air will spread north in the wake of the area
of lift as an upper ridge develops over Montana. This ridge will
move east Saturday as an upper trough moves to near the west
coast. This upper trough will then move east Saturday night and an
associated cold front will move east through the forecast area. Do
not see a lot of moisture with the cold front so will continue
with the idea of snow showers over the Rocky Mountain Front with
just scattered rain and snow showers over the mountains of
southwest Montana. With the upper trough Sunday the chances of
precipitation will be higher. However gusty downslope winds will
limit precipitation chances over the plains. Snow levels will
tumble from 9000 to 10000 feet above Mean Sea Level Saturday to a
range from 5000 ft in the northwest portion of the forecast area
to between 6000 and 7000 feet in the southeast on Sunday. Snow
in the mountains should be at the most only a few inches.

Wind situation...high winds have failed to develop over the Rocky
Mountain Front so have cancelled the high wind warning. Also strong
winds in the Cut Bank area will diminish by daybreak. Blank

Sunday Night through Friday...Models remain in good agreement
bringing another low pressure system through the region Sunday night
into Monday. With generally westerly flow, precipitation chances
appear to be mostly limited to the west and southwest mountains. The
system exits Tuesday with weak transient high pressure briefly
moving over the region. A generally unsettled westerly flow develops
Wednesday and several disturbances embedded in the flow will pass
over Montana Wednesday. A low pressure system off the west coast
will bring warm southwesterly flow to the region by the end of the
week. Temperatures will be cool into Tuesday before warming up later
in the week. Overall chances of meaningful precipitation for the
plains remain fairly low throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1200Z.
VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. Ceilings will be
mostly mid level with the exception of the Continental Divide where
showers may be seen. West winds are expected to remain breezy across
the area with locations along the Rocky Mountain Front experiencing
the strongest gusts. Expect winds to diminish after 00Z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  38  65  44 /  10  20   0  10
CTB  56  35  59  40 /  10  20   0  10
HLN  59  39  68  42 /  30  20   0  10
BZN  59  33  69  37 /  30  10   0  10
WEY  54  28  60  27 /  20  10   0  20
DLN  62  38  68  40 /  20  10   0  20
HVR  61  37  63  40 /   0  10   0  10
LWT  59  38  68  43 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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