Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 310515
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1120 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

Aviation Section Updated.

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight...A few showers continue to linger but activity has
become quite weak. Wrap-around moisture associated with the low
pressure system over the Montana/Saskatchewan border is still a
threat across the northeastern zones later tonight. Lowered most
POPs on the update except for the northeast. Zelzer

&&

.AVIATION...UPDATED 0520Z.

Clouds and rain showers will continue to linger near KLWT/KHVR, but
gradually move east through Tuesday morning. VFR conditions will
prevail through the next 24 hours except tonight near rain showers.
PN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED /
Tonight through Wednesday...Cold front has now slowed and is
currently just north of Helena. As this front stalls across the
Rocky Mountain Front...and the upper level low pushes across NE
MT late this afternoon through this evening...showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected to fill back into the region...still
mainly north and east of a line from Helena to White Sulphur
Springs to Lewistown. Gusty northwest winds will also be possible
with the passage of this system through tonight and into Tuesday.
In addition...a few very isolated showers and thunderstorms are
also possible in the Bozeman area through this evening. By Tuesday
morning the upper low pushes into ND...with wrap around moisture
lingering into eastern portions of the CWA and producing areas of
scattered showers. For western and southwestern portions of the
CWA...high pressure begins to build across the region...bringing
clearing skies and warming conditions. All precipitation should
exit the eastern CWA by Tuesday evening. Ridge of high pressure
will build back across the region for Wednesday. This will return
dry conditions...and warmer ...with near to slightly above normal
readings. Anglin

Wednesday night through Monday...The period begins with a
brisk westerly flow aloft. Ensemble solutions reveal a bit of spread
amid this pattern as shortwave energy crosses southwest Canada.
Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out, mainly over higher
terrain. Breezy west winds are expected to develop Thursday
afternoon and evening as a surface trough moves away to the east. By
Friday the ensemble solutions tighten up as a broad and nearly
stationary ridge strengthens over the western United States. This
ridge will maintain well above average temperatures through Monday.
Ensemble solutions finally begin to diverge late in the period as a
trough moves into northern California, creating a slight chance for
showers over southwest Montana early next week. PN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  40  62  42  76 /  20  20   0   0
CTB  38  62  40  74 /  10  10   0   0
HLN  42  66  44  80 /  10  10   0   0
BZN  36  64  38  77 /  10  20   0   0
WEY  32  57  34  66 /  10   0   0  10
DLN  37  66  39  76 /  10   0   0   0
HVR  45  62  42  74 /  50  40  10   0
LWT  41  58  40  72 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls


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