Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
FXUS65 KTFX 052348
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
448 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2015
Tonight through Saturday...The main feature over the next few
days will be a high pressure ridge over the West Coast. This will
keep the airmass over Central Montana dry and trending warmer. At
the surface, a low pressure trof will remain along the slopes of
the Rockies and this will keep brisk winds across the Rockies and
adjacent plains. A weak disturbance will move through the
northwest flow aloft this evening and this period should bring the
strongest winds across the Rockies. The surface pressure gradient
generally weakens, however, so do not expect damaging winds.
Several additional, weak disturbances will move through the
northwest flow aloft but with very little moisture available, the
region will remain precipitation free through Saturday.
Temperatures will trend well above normals Friday and Saturday.
Saturday Night through Thursday...Dry conditions with well-above
normal temperatures expected for Sun through Tues as broad high
pressure ridge along the West Coast drifts eastward toward the Great
Basin and Northern Rockies. Latest model runs indicate we`ll likely
see spring-like upper 50s to low 60s at lower elevations on
Mon/Tues, but generally stay below record-high range (mostly mid 60s
to low 70s).
06Z/12Z GFS model runs have backed off considerably from the
significantly colder solutions that were previously advertised for
Wed/Thursday of next week. While the latest GFS model still brings a
somewhat cooler low level airmass south into the region this period,
the upper level pattern is in much better alignment with the more
consistent ECMWF solution, depicting the upper level ridge
flattening and flow aloft generally remaining from the west. Have
therefore updated temperatures for the Wed/Thursday period with the
most recent model mean blend. This results in temperatures cooling
some Wed/Thurs, but remaining above seasonal averages.
There will be VFR conditions with no precipitation expected.
Ceilings will be above 15000 ft. Friday afternoon scattered clouds
from 8000 to 12000 ft MSL will develop. Gusts of 30 kts to 40 kts
with local gusts to 50 kts can be expected over ridgetops and along
the immediate Rocky Mountain Front into Friday morning. Blank
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 31 54 31 54 / 0 0 10 20
CTB 30 53 28 51 / 0 0 10 20
HLN 30 56 33 57 / 0 0 10 10
BZN 22 52 27 55 / 0 0 0 10
WEY 9 42 14 46 / 0 10 10 10
DLN 24 54 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
HVR 26 55 26 51 / 0 0 10 20
LWT 28 49 29 49 / 0 0 10 20