Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTFX 042020
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...GOING FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ROTATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY CONSTANT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 6000 FEET IN GLACIER PARK AND TO AROUND 6500 FEET IN
SOUTHWEST MONTANA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY COULD BRING ABOUT 2 INCHES TO LOGAN
PASS WITH OTHER MAJOR PASSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVING
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS AS ROAD TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM.
NWS OFFICES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORIES FOR
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY BUT I WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS IMPACTS WILL BE RELATIVELY MINIMAL.
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS AND QPF FOR SUNDAY
AS NEWEST MODEL RUNS ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FASTER THAN
THEY HAD PREVIOUSLY SHOWED. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT
THEY WILL BE OVERLY STRONG AT THIS TIME. MPJ

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROF THAT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
HILINE COUNTIES AND OVER THE ROCKY MTN FRONT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS,
BUT MOST OF OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO MON MORNING.  A WEAK
SECONDARY TROF IS FORECAST TO SWING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MON
AFTN/EVE GENERATING SOME SPOTTY, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG/WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL STEADILY DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEST COAST NEXT WEEK. THE RESULTING WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER
MONTANA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES. WARANAUSKAS

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1815Z.

VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH AREAS IFR IN BANDS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN AS LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES BANDS OF
MOISTURE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS SPREAD EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TOWARD
KLWT/KBZN OVERNIGHT. MPJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  47  53  44  61 /  90  80  90  40
CTB  44  49  41  57 /  90  90  90  50
HLN  44  58  40  64 / 100  80  80  40
BZN  45  66  39  63 /  70  60  60  30
WEY  37  60  22  54 /  40  20  50  20
DLN  42  59  34  58 /  70  60  60  20
HVR  48  58  44  59 /  80  60  90  50
LWT  47  61  39  61 /  80  40  80  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.