Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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FXUS65 KTFX 290439
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1037 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...
900 PM Update...The strong winds have diminished over the
region...thus the high wind warning has been allowed to expire.
Light rain continues to fall over portions of North Central
MT...mainly east of Great Falls to Cut Bank line. Thus pops have
been increased in this region. Also...a few lingering showers are
possible after Midnight in this region...so added some small pops
after Midnight. Otherwise...the rest of the forecast is on track
for tonight. Sunday should be a much quieter day over the
region...with any precip activity confined to the mountains of
Rocky Mountain Front...along with lighter winds across the entire
region. Brusda

600 PM Update...Increased pops for the evening hours over North
Central MT. High wind warning continues until 9 PM this evening.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0537Z.
Other than ceilings between 5 and 7 thousand feet over central
Montana early in the taf period any ceilings should be near and
above 15000 ft. Southwest to west winds will increase by Sunday
afternoon but speeds will not be nearly as strong as those of
Saturday. Blank

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 231 PM MDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

Tonight through Monday...An upper level low pressure trof will move
east of the region this evening and winds will decrease through the
evening. The high wind warning is currently scheduled to expire at 9
pm this evening and will not make any changes to the timing. High
pressure aloft will build through Monday and the air mass will warm
and dry. Temperatures will trend upwards as the air mass warms and
temperatures by Monday could be 20 degrees or more above seasonal
averages. Zelzer

Monday Night through Saturday...Period begins with dry conditions
through midday Tues as high pressure ridge gradually tracks eastward
across the state.  Forecast models still indicating arrival of a
Pacific shortwave trof, surface cold front and accompanying valley
rain/mtn snow showers on Tues, though with a few changes.  Most
notable is a 4-6 hr delay in the system and precipitation crossing
the Divide, now projected for mid-late aftn into Tues eve.  Also,
overall precip coverage and amounts have been reduced, especially
over parts of the central and Hiline counties.  Lastly, winds aloft
and the surface pressure gradient are a bit weaker than previous
model solutions, suggesting that much of our region will still have
gusty winds on Tues aftn/eve with cold frontal passage, but the
probability of needing high wind highlights has decreased.

Latter half of the week still looks cooler and unsettled as Northern
Rockies remain under western boundary of a longwave trof centered
over eastern portions of the US and Canada.  Another upper-level
shortwave is expected to swing through MT from Thurs aftn through
Fri morning with another round of light rain/snow.  Models diverge
a bit on Sat with the European/Canadian models showing a marked
return of high pressure ridging and warm, dry conditions.
Meanwhile, the American GFS model depicts only slight transient
ridging, with a weak system moving along the US/Can border
generating showers along the Rocky Mtn Front and Hiline areas.
Current forecast grids compromise between these solutions, leaning
slightly more toward the drier Euro/Can solution.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  36  62  40  69 /  20  10  10   0
CTB  35  59  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  36  63  39  69 /  10  10  10   0
BZN  27  63  32  69 /  10   0   0   0
WEY  20  52  25  57 /  10   0   0   0
DLN  30  61  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  33  66  36  69 /  90   0   0   0
LWT  36  62  39  68 /  60   0  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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