937
FXUS61 KBUF 131743
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will move across the area this afternoon with some
showers and a thunderstorm possible. This front will usher in a
period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the
middle of the week. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will
provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of widely
scattered afternoon showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Showers associated with a warm front and the nose of a 40 knot
low-level jet across the Eastern Lake Ontario region will exit
to the east later this afternoon. Behind this, daytime heating
and a more moist air mass will result in some diurnal instability.
This will support some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
with the greatest chances from the Genesee River Valley to
Western Finger Lakes regions. Meanwhile, across far Western New
York, showers will end with a partial clearing developing as a
weak lake shadow develops in the moderate southwesterly flow.
It`ll be warmer with highs in the 70s across western NY to the
mid to upper 60s east of Lake Ontario.

The warm front will lift north tonight, stalling from the north
shores of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley. Chances of
showers will linger near the boundary, while the bulk of
Western Ny will be rain free. Lows will fall to the mid to upper
50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Nearly stationary frontal boundary located in the vicinity of Lake
Ontario to the Saint Lawrence River Tuesday morning. This frontal
boundary will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm chances
Tuesday, as it sags slowly southward into the region during the day
with the vast majority of the guidance having the boundary bisecting
the area by the end of the day. Precipitable water values nearing
1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but given the
relative small shear vectors and an enhanced theta-e environment the
potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times
with any convective activity.

The frontal boundary will continue to drift to the south Tuesday
night and Wednesday in response to the building high pressure system
over Ontario. Precipitation chances, though lowering during this
period will continue through Wednesday, before high pressure fills
in across the Great Lakes.

There could still be some lingering light showers Wednesday evening,
but the overall trend will be fro continued drying with most of
Wednesday night winding up being dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A progressive flow aloft will maintain chances for showers and
thunderstorms this period. Thursday may end up dry, with low PWATS
and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east
coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a
possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far
enough westward into our eastern CWA.

This western trough will push eastward, likely in the Friday to
Saturday timeframe...with still a good deal of model spread to
narrow down it`s passage. Behind the trough lowering chances for
precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may
bring chances for showers to the North Country. Temperatures will
average above normal, especially Friday ahead of the trough, and
again on Sunday when a milder airmass begins to push northward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front will move east of the region later this afternoon.
This boundary will produce steady showers across the Eastern
Lake Ontario region through 19Z. After this, diurnal instability
will support some showers in the wake of the warm front, with a
few isolated thunderstorms possible. Southwesterly flow will
result in a rain-free lake shadow across the Niagara Frontier
(KBUF/KIAG) later this afternoon. Overall widespread VFR flight
conditions, except localized MVFR possible in vsby restrictions
in any showers or thunderstorms.

Dry weather for most locations tonight as the frontal boundary
lifts northward. Some showers may linger near KART which will be
closest to the boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions for
tonight through Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and a few
thunderstorms increase with instability Tuesday afternoon.
Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and
thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with
lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Thursday...VFR.

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterly flow today, but winds will be strongest
on the land due to lake breeze enhancement. Winds on the waters
expected to remain below Small Craft criteria. After this weak
there will be a relatively weak flow, with winds expected to
remain below 15 knots through Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel