031
FXUS62 KCAE 111838
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
238 PM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure keeps the area dry through the weekend and into
the beginning of next week. The high then moves offshore Monday
and increasing moisture supports an unsettled week with chances
for showers and thunderstorms for much of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A well-developed cyclone is moving through the Great Lakes region
today, while surface high pressure is building over the southeast.
Satellite imagery and a look out the window reveals a scattered fair-
weather cu deck across much of the Midlands with some lingering
moisture in the atmosphere. Surface observations show west to
northwest winds continue to usher in a drier airmass with dewpoints
in the low to mid 40s, while temperatures have warmed into the low
to mid 70s.

Fair weather continues the remainder of today as the upper trough
north of us continues to move east into New England, reinforcing
northwest flow aloft. A weak surface trough and front associated
with this upper low will then move through the region tonight, but
with PW values only around 0.5", no precip is expected. Main effect
will be another slight wind shift from the west to the northwest
late tonight into Sunday morning. Dry surface regime will generally
preclude any fog concerns for tonight, and lows are expected to be
cool once again, generally in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to ridge over the forecast area Sunday with
heights rising as weak upper ridging to the west shifts over the
forecast area. This will lead to temperatures a few degrees warmer
for Sunday which will be the only noticeable difference in weather
for tomorrow compared to today. Low temperatures also expected to be
a degree or two warmer but still remaining in the mid 50s.

Monday, an upper low pressure system over the Four Corners region
will eject and push across the CONUS. This will lead to increasing
southwesterly flow with strong moisture transport in the upper and
mid levels as PWATs increase through the day. This will lead to
increasing clouds, first over the CSRA and then into the rest of the
forecast area. As a result, expect cooler highs in the CSRA, in the
mid-70s and low 80s, in the eastern portion of the area. Forecast
soundings do indicate a layer of near surface dry air and so while
isentropic lift is expected to increase towards the end of the day
on Monday, any precipitation should be light. With isentropic lift
increasing overnight Monday, rain chances will continue to
increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble suites show high probability (around 80 percent) that by
Tuesday PWATs will increase to above an inch and a half. With a
fairly robust shortwave moving through the area, expect widespread
showers, although there is some question as to the exact evolution
as models are indicating some drier air behind this shortwave and
uncertainty to its timing as it will result from the ejection
from the previously mentioned upper low. As far as an ingredient
perspective, there remains at least some concern of the
potential for severe weather, especially across the southern
area where there is higher potential for destabilization but the
overall shear profile would support organized storms. As we
start to approach the timing for convective allowing models,
there is also the potential for an upstream MCS to develop in
the Deep South and move east, riding along the highest
instability near the Gulf Coast, which may miss us to the south.
While some drier air likely moves in Wednesday, ensemble means
indicate moisture remains high enough to support scattered
showers and storms, especially in the Pee Dee. Brief ridging
expected to build back in briefly Thursday before another
moisture surge expected Friday with LREF probability showing
highest probability of destabilization in the CSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies with some fair weather cumulus at 5-7k ft MSL
during this afternoon which will diminish overnight. SFC winds north
to northeast between 5 and 10 kts shift to more westerly after about
11/18z. Winds then decrease to light and variable overnight into
Sunday morning. Dry conditions and a low level jet should hinder any
fog development overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions are possible late Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$