860
FXUS64 KCRP 091151
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
651 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Have expanded the Heat Advisory to include Jim Wells county for
this afternoon. With skies expected to become mostly clear over
much of the region today this will help to boost temperatures.
Also, the dryline that is expected to infiltrate South Texas
today is progged to stall along eastern Duval county, keeping all
of Jim Wells in an area with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This
is expected to result in dangerous heat this afternoon across the
Advisory area. Will continue to monitor and update the forecast
and any products if anything changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Message:

 A Heat Advisory is in effect again today across Inland Kleberg,
Inland Nueces, and Jim Wells Counties with Heat Indices up to around
110

Aloft, a mid-level high remains over the western Gulf/Mexico with a
low centered over UT. Several impulses and shortwaves will eject
from the low and help to nudge a cold front southward across the
Southern Plains and eventually our CWA. This will also introduce
moisture across the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere
increasing our rain chances this weekend. PWAT`s will drop to
around normal or slightly below (mean ~1.35") average for this
time of year, plus the CAP that is in place will preclude any
convection across South Texas today.

At the surface, expecting light winds today to start out as onshore
flow then veering to the northwest by the afternoon in response to
an approaching dryline from the west. The dryline is expected to
stall late this afternoon somewhere along the inland Coastal Bend
and the Coastal Plains before retreating back west as the sea
breeze kicks in late this afternoon.

The aforementioned weak cold front approaches our CWA early Friday
morning and FROPA is expected to slowly make its way south across
the region throughout the day Friday and is expected to reach the
coast late Friday/early Saturday preceded by a northeasterly wind
shift. Operational models still struggling a bit with timing as
the GFS basically brings the front straight through while the NAM
has it slowly reaching the southern coast by 15Z Saturday.
Moisture is expected to hover around normal levels during this
time and have opted to keep in a low chance (15-20%) out west for
precipitation and thunderstorms during the day Friday.

Temperatures today will once again pose a moderate to major risk
for heat-related impacts. Heat indices have a low to moderate
chance (20-60%) of exceeding 110 degrees across portions of the
Coastal Bend and the Coastal Plains this afternoon and a Heat
Advisory is in effect until 7 PM for inland Nueces, inland Kleberg
and Jim Wells counties. The heat index is progged to top out
around 110 degrees for a few hours this afternoon. Please consider
several ways to stay safe in the heat: if outside, have access to
an air conditioned space to take breaks from the heat, drink
plenty of water, wear loose-fitting light colored clothing and
avoid being outside during the hottest part of the afternoon.
Friday will be cooler with afternoon air temperatures ranging in
the 80s to mid 90s and heat indices topping out around 100
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Key Messages:

 Cooler on Saturday in the wake of a front
 Low to medium chances for showers and storms this weekend

Overall, not too much change with this long term forecast update. A
cold front will stall just south of the region Friday night. It will
slowly retreat north as a warm front through the day Saturday with
moisture gradually increasing behind it. An upper level low
positioned over the Four Corners will help maintain a southwesterly
flow aloft. We will see several shortwaves eject through the
southwesterly flow over the course of the weekend. As a result,
chances for showers and thunderstorms steadily increase Saturday
through Monday. Our best chances come Sunday and Monday as the upper
level low moves closer to the region.

Looking ahead to next week, models generally dry us out due to lack
of any low level forcing. However, we may see a couple impulses
rotate through the generally west-northwesterly flow aloft.
Therefore, can`t rule out the low chance of some convection
developing during the afternoon/evening hours through the middle
of the week.

"Cooler" temperatures are in store for Saturday as temps struggle to
make it out of the 80s. Relief does not last long as we begin to
warm back up Sunday. Triple digits re-enter the forecast out west by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Currently have a mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings and some haze/fog.
Expecting these conditions to improve to VFR by late this morning.
MVFR CIG`s may hang on at ALI/VCT until afternoon. A dryline will
pass over LRD/COT and will approach ALI this afternoon before
retreating back west this evening. As a result winds will be
variable but light with speeds approaching 10 knots. Tonight,
partly cloudy skies become mostly cloudy from east to west and
have ceilings going down to MVFR for now but similar to tonight,
IFR ceilings are possible again tomorrow morning but not confident
enough to add to this TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Weak onshore flow will continue this morning through tonight with
some patchy fog possible. In addition to patchy fog, residual
smoke from Central America will continue to cause hazy conditions
across South Texas ahead of our next front. The cold front is
expected to move offshore Friday morning resulting in a
northeasterly weak to moderate flow. Weak to moderate northeast
winds Friday night will strengthen to moderate to strong Saturday
as it shifts to the east. A weak to moderate southeasterly flow
returns early next week. A low chance of showers and storms on
Saturday increases to a low to medium chances for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  76  89  75 /   0   0  10  10
Victoria          93  73  90  70 /   0   0  10   0
Laredo           108  76  95  74 /   0   0  20  20
Alice            102  75  92  72 /   0   0  10  10
Rockport          88  76  88  75 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla          104  76  92  74 /   0   0  10  10
Kingsville       101  76  90  74 /   0   0  10  10
Navy Corpus       90  78  87  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ241>243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BF
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...BF/80