Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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589 FXUS64 KOUN 061151 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 651 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 424 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Added a small area of dense fog across our far southeast CWA within an already existing area of fog extending generally east of I-35. Visibility`s reduced between 1/2 to 1/4 of a mile in the dense fog area. Can`t rule out a potential advisory for dense fog by mid-morning but will hold off for now and continue monitoring the trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Storms will be out of our area before sunrise Tuesday morning, with mostly sunny skies expected through the day with highs in the low 80s. Models show another shortwave moving into the plains on Wednesday as moisture attempts to move back northward into our southeast counties. As of now the flow is expected to veer across much of our area through the day Wednesday, which should push the better moisture eastward and confine any thunderstorm chances to our eastern/southeastern counties. Instability and shear will support severe weather with these storms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main threat. After Wednesday the synoptic pattern appears to transition to one much less favorable for severe weather, with high pressure to our north confining the deeper moisture well to our south into the weekend. This should finally give our area a bit of a break, although we will not completely dry out as rain chances (non-severe) return to the area Saturday into Sunday. Ware && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024 Reduced visibilities due to fog and very low ceilings will maintain LIFR conditions at most of our terminals at least through 14Z, after which rising stratus will improve conditions at least to MVFR and returning to VFR conditions after 21Z. However, expecting severe thunderstorms after 00Z could affect most of our terminals and reducing them back to at least MVFR conditions at least until 06Z. Surface winds will be gusty out of the south at 10-20 kts with 25-30 kt gusts. A Pacific front & dryline will start pushing through after 00Z and start veering winds out of the west behind the boundary with west to west-northwest winds by the end of this forecast across our terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 79 54 81 64 / 40 50 0 0 Hobart OK 85 51 83 57 / 30 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 84 55 84 66 / 20 20 0 0 Gage OK 86 49 85 51 / 20 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 80 51 81 58 / 60 80 0 10 Durant OK 82 67 85 68 / 20 30 0 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ031-032- 042-043-047-048-051-052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...68 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...68