079
FXUS62 KRAH 100035
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
835 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region late Friday, ushering in
drier and less humid air for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
As of 835 PM Thursday...

Mid and high cloudiness continued to exit to the east this evening.
This will leave mostly clear to clear skies across the region for
the overnight. The latest satellite data indicated a few cirrus
upstream over TN, but not much more than that. Lows tonight are
expected to be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

A rather vigorous shortwave trough extending from the eastern
Great Lakes southwest to the western OH Valley on Friday morning
will quickly advance east and swing across central NC during
the afternoon and early evening. A belt of strong mid- level
winds of 60+ kts at 500 mb ahead of the trough will lift across
VA and NC during the afternoon. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from near KORF southwest to near KGSO to west of
KCLT during the early afternoon with the front advancing east
and southeast as it reaches the coast by midnight.

NWP guidance had a notable shift last night slowing the eastward
progress of the front and keeping much of central NC in the
relatively moist and somewhat unstable area ahead of the front.
This trend has slowed but the potential for deeper convection
and some severe weather has increased a bit across the
Sandhills and Coastal Plain for Friday. Higher res guidance
suggests the atmosphere may become weakly unstable for a short
period in the eastern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain in a
narrow tongue just ahead of the cold front. Modest mid level
lapse rates, the potential for some capping, and perhaps an
initial round of light precipitation early in the afternoon just
ahead of the most favorable time period could hinder convective
development and intensification. If deep convection can
develop, it could tap into 0-6km bulk shear values of 35 to 50
kts supporting storm organization and a couple of supercells.
Hodographs are long and straight which adds additional concern
for large hail. SPC has not surprisingly expanded the marginal
risk north and a little west as the guidance has brought the
threat area northwestward. Feel the coverage of stronger/deeper
storms will still be limited and is more favored to the south
and east of the RAH CWA, but would not be surprised if one or
two stronger cells develop and move across the Sandhills and
southern Coastal Plain with an increased severe weather
potential. The window for convection will shut down around
dinner time with dry weather expected on Friday night. Further
west across the western and northwest Piedmont, the chances for
a shower and perhaps a thunderstorm are much more limited and
deep convection is not expected.

Highs on Friday will range from the upper 70s in the Triad and near
the VA border to the lower 80s in most other locations. Noticeably
drier air will spread into the region on Friday night with dewpoints
falling into the lower 50s with some upper 40s possible across the
northern and western Piedmont. Lows will range in the lower top mid
50s. -Blaes

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 211 PM Thursday...

In the wake of the departing upper trough Friday night, NW flow will
take hold across the area on Saturday. This will allow for continued
dry advection and noticeably cooler temperatures, as highs will only
reach the low to mid 70s across the area. A weak shortwave trough is
expected to rotate through southern VA/northern NC late in the day
Saturday which will bring about a brief increase in cloud cover and
perhaps a stray shower or two, but that`s about it. Model guidance
has been consistent in showing limited precip across the area thanks
in large part to a dry BL featuring dewpoints in the 40s. PoPs in
the 15-20 percent range across the northern tier of counties still
seems appropriate based on today`s ensemble guidance (but even this
may be overdone a bit). Any showers that do manage to make it into
the forecast area should dissipate quickly after sunset with dry
weather expected Saturday night. Lows will range from the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

Sunday will see mostly sunny skies and continued cool/dry conditions
as weak cyclonic flow aloft gradually flattens out as a ridge builds
to our west. Look for another day of below normal highs (mid 70s)
with low temps once again falling into the upper 40s to low 50s. No
concerns about precip as all forcing will be displaced well to the
northeast of the area.

The overall pattern next week looks to be active once again. An
upper low over the Central Plains will slowly migrate eastward on
Monday, inducing downstream ridging across the Southeast states and
ultimately resulting in a fairly quiet day across NC with near
normal temps and dry weather. This will ultimately change though as
the low migrates into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Broad/weak forcing
for ascent will overspread much of the Southeast on Tuesday
coincident with an increase in moisture transport (PW`s will be back
above 1.5 inches by Tuesday morning). Showers are expected across
the area on Tuesday although just how quickly they arrive is still a
little unclear (daybreak Tuesday vs afternoon). Regardless, Tuesday
is likely to see widespread cloud cover and rainfall with cooler
temps as a result. While thunder seems unlikely at this stage
(instability displaced well to the south), precip chances will
likely be maximized during the daytime hours with lesser chances
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will see continued precip chances as the upper low opens
up and moves through the central Mid Atlantic. As PW`s will remain
elevated and the area will be well within the warm sector,
instability will be much more readily available on Wednesday ahead
of the trough and shower/thunderstorm chances should be a bit higher
(60-70 percent range) especially during the afternoon hours. It`s
also likely that we`ll have at least some clearing to start the day
and temps should make it up into the low/mid 80s prior to the
arrival of the trough.

Thursday should start off dry in the wake of the departing low, but
this looks to be short lived. While shortwave ridging aloft will
build in early in the day, this will quickly turn southwesterly as
yet another longwave trough sets up across the Central Plains and
kicks out a series of embedded shortwaves across the Southeast
states through the end of the week. This would favor diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening,
followed by drying overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions across the area will continue into the overnight
hours and much of Friday before the cold front moves across the
region Friday night. Light SW winds of 5 to 10 kts will prevail
tonight before increased winds and occasional gusts become dominant
Friday afternoon. As winds switch to a more W/NW flow Friday
afternoon ahead of the front, gusts of 10 to 20 kts are expected.
Various ceilings will move across the region with BKN to OVC skies
of 15k to 25k ft ceilings throughout the period. KFAY and KRDU could
see ceilings drop to around 10k ft as the front moves through with
isolated to scattered showers and storms but confidence on location
is low. For now have PROB 30 only at KFAY as that terminal has the
best chance for afternoon storms developing over the area.

Looking beyond: VFR conditions are expected through at least Mon,
with a cooler and less humid air mass moving in starting late Fri.
Rain and isolated storms are expected to move in Tue morning, with
an increasing chance of sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Blaes
LONG TERM...DL
AVIATION...CA/Hartfield