975
FXUS64 KTSA 181718
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1218 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Areas of fog across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas have dissipated
this morning. A warm and humid day is on tap across the area as
high temperatures soar into the mid to upper 80s for most
locations this afternoon. Subtle surface to mid level ridging
building into the region will keep skies mostly clear through the
day with light winds. Going forecast remains in good shape with no
updates needed this morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Shortwave ridging remains largely in control Sunday, with another
very warm and humid afternoon, as some spots likely reach low 90s.
Signal remains in strong to severe thunderstorm development along
the dry line to our west late Sunday afternoon across northwest
OK, some of which eventually moves east toward our area. This
activity will be on the decline Sunday night as it moves this far
east. Dry line appears less active Monday with increased capping
spreading north as mid level heights again rise temporarily.

Potentially more active severe weather day is possible Tuesday as
a stronger shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, resulting in
stronger deep layer wind fields and modest height falls into the
Southern Plains. Uncertainty continues regarding storm mode and
coverage, but this period appears to offer the highest chance of
severe weather for this region.

Cold front expected to push through Wednesday with storm chances
continuing. Evolution of the pattern into late next week remains
in question, but generally looks active.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the period for all sites.
One exception could be some patchy fog formation early tomorrow
morning for the AR sites. Southerly winds will begin to increase
during the day tomorrow, coming up to around 10 knots by the end
of this TAF period.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  90  68  91 /   0   0  40   0
FSM   64  91  69  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   63  90  70  90 /   0   0  10   0
BVO   60  88  65  90 /   0   0  50   0
FYV   61  88  65  89 /   0   0  10  10
BYV   61  88  65  88 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  20   0
MIO   61  88  66  88 /   0   0  30  10
F10   63  88  68  89 /   0   0  20   0
HHW   63  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04