627
FXUS64 KTSA 161549
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1049 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The main update this morning was to adjust PoPs based on latest
obs/trends. MCS across TX has a large stratiform precip region
that is moving east across southern OK this morning. Raised PoPs
down south and reduced PoPs across the north where activity is
much more scattered. As we go into the afternoon PoPs will drop
off generally, but remain widely scattered to scattered. With
upper trough sliding in and the potential for some sunshine as
clearing is noted behind MCS per satellite data, you can`t rule
out spotty showers and storms. Data seems to be pointing to NW AR
for a bit better storm coverage, and this is reflected in the
grids.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Strong thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of
northeast Oklahoma, with scattered storms bubbling to the
southwest in parts of central and southwest Oklahoma as well.
The strongest storms are developing ahead of an MCV near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border very near I-35 moving to the east-
northeast. The overall potential for severe weather through the
rest of the early morning hours today continues to wane, although
at least a low chance for marginally severe hail and wind across
northeast and east central Oklahoma will exist through sunrise
given available shear and instability.

Attention then turns to the development ongoing in the South
Plains region of Texas, extending into southwest Oklahoma. The
expectation is for this to continue to shift eastward through the
day, moving into portions of southeast and east central Oklahoma
in a decreasing phase after sunrise. A front expected to be near
I-44 mid to late morning should also become a focus for additional
development into the afternoon as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this evening,
continuing through the rest of the night and into Friday, as the
main upper level system finally approaches and moves through the
region. A marginal severe weather threat will exist with storms
this evening and again on Friday, with the greatest potential
likely to be in southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas given
the location of the co-located instability/shear max. Locally
heavy rainfall will continue to be a concern, as well, considering
antecedent conditions and well above normal precipitable water
values.

Upper level ridging behind the departing upper level system will
signal an end to the current active period, with dry weather for
most of the weekend and temperatures running about 10 degrees
above normal. MCS activity Sunday night and again Monday night
could again affect areas near the Kansas and Missouri borders on
the northern periphery of the upper ridge.

Deterministic models are in much better agreement on their
handling of the Tuesday front, bringing it through the area. This
should lead to higher shower and thunderstorm chances and lower
temperatures from Tuesday through at least mid week. High
temperatures have been trended strongly toward the cooler
traditional MOS guidance blend beginning Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Another low-confidence aviation forecast through the next 24
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning will taper
off late in the morning and through the afternoon, with a few
showers lingering. As a result, VFR should prevail at all TAF
sites as the precipitation becomes more isolated late this morning
and into the afternoon. Winds will stay light and variable
through much of the period. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected late/overnight tonight and into Friday
morning. Coverage and duration is still questionable at this time.
Regardless of precipitation/convection coverage, ceilings and
visibilities may lower to MVFR/IFR late tonight into Friday
morning.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  62  78  60 /  60  50  40  10
FSM   83  65  78  63 /  60  60  60  20
MLC   81  62  78  60 /  80  60  50  20
BVO   78  58  77  57 /  50  40  30  10
FYV   80  60  76  58 /  50  60  60  20
BYV   80  61  75  59 /  50  60  70  20
MKO   80  62  76  60 /  70  50  50  20
MIO   77  60  76  59 /  50  40  50  10
F10   79  62  76  59 /  70  50  50  10
HHW   80  63  78  62 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67