Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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756
FXAK69 PAFG 052142
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
142 PM AKDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY ARE THE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN INTERIOR AND LOW CEILINGS AND FOG OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE.

THE 12Z MODEL SUITE INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 12 ANALYSIS AND
VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD BOTH RUN TO
RUN AND FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND FROM RUN TO RUN REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE AND REASONABLE THROUGH THE MID TERM AS
WELL AS THE LONG TERM

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST TO BE LOCATED OVER
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA THIS EVENING AND OVER WESTERN ALASKA
FRIDAY. THE LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN BRITISH COLOMBIA AND
THE SOUTHERN YUKON WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST. A THERMAL TROUGH THOUGH
WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY IS STILL PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
AND WESTERN ALASKA FROM AROUND OLD CROW TO BETTLES AND THEN SOUTH
AND WEST INTO THE LOWER YK DELTA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.

AT THE SURFACE A 986 MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KODIAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES TOWARD KODIAK
ISLAND. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE ON SHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST THIS EVENING AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY
GAP WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND TO REMAIN GUSTY
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. GUSTY
WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

LOW CEILINGS AND FOG...DENSE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH
SLOPE THROUGH FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY LONGER WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS.
MARINE STRATUS HAS BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST WITH
LOW CEILINGS AND FOG WHERE SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WITH MARGINAL RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG GAP WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH AND
MIN RH VALUES THERE FALLING BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT. GAP WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SATURDAY AS WINDS ALOFT TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO
WESTERLY. THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR
ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH LOCAL WIND CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
FEATURE HELPING TO TRIGGER AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH READINGS FOR LARGER VALLEYS WILL REMAIN DRY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND...RANGING BETWEEN 20 TO 30
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC MAY 16



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