Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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000
FXAK69 PAFG 301050
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 AM AKDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread heavy rains are expected to continue through today for
the west coast and western interior and will continue through
Sunday for the central and eastern interior.

The 00z model suite initialized well against the 00 analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread has decreased
in both the short range and mid range with a fairly tight clustering
on rainfall amounts and locations through the weekend. Model
spread into the long range remains reasonable.

Deep layer moisture continues to pour into the west coast south of
the Seward Peninsula as well as the western interior and the
central interior south of a Bettles to Galena to Unalakleet line.
The latest models continue to increase storm total rainfall through
Sunday to around 2 to 2.5 inches range with locally 3 plus inches
near Galena and Ruby and the northern portions of the Nulato
Hills. Mean Integrated Water Vapor Tranport Standardized Anomalies
continue to be 4 to 5 standard deviations above normal with
forecasted soundings reaching 120 to 130 percent of normal for
precipitable water for Fairbanks and McGrath into Sunday. Its going
to be wet...very wet in the western and central interior as well
as the Alaska Range.

Ongoing flood advisories will continue into Sunday for the
Southern Seward Peninsula and Nulato Hills as well as a Small
Stream Flood Advisory for the streams draining north along the
Alaska Range West of the Richardson Highway through Sunday as well
as a Flood Advisory for Streams and Rivers between the Tanana and
Yukon Rivers from Fairbanks and the White Mountains West. Will
need to closely monitor the need for additional headlines over
the western and central interior as well as the Alaska Range. A
Flood Watch has been issued through Sunday for the Chena...the
Little Chena and the Chatanika Rivers.


Coastal Hazard Potential...
Storm surge anomalies in eastern Norton Sound are currently 1 to
2 feet above normal tides and will continue to slowly drop today
and into tonight as winds diminish and become off shore by
saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Minimal fire weather concerns with widespread wetting rains over
the west coast...western and central interior.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rains along and south of a line from unalakleet to
Galena to Bettles to near Fort Yukon will produce storm total
rainfall in the 2 to 3 inches range with locally higher totals
through Sunday. Recurrence intervals for 24 hour totals in many
locations exceed once in 5 years. Ongoing flood advisories will
continue into Sunday for the Southern Seward Peninsula and Nulato
Hills as well as a Small Stream Flood Advisory for the streams
draining north along the Alaska Range West of the Richardson
Highway through Sunday as Well as a Flood Advisory for Streams
and Rivers between the Tanana and Yukon Rivers from Fairbanks and
the White Mountains West. Will need to closely monitor need for
additional headlines over the western and central interior as well
as the Alaska Range. A Flood Watch has been issued through Sunday
for the Chena...the Little Chena and the Chatanika Rivers

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch for AKZ222.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 16



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