Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 241050

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
250 AM AKDT WED AUG 24 2016

The 00z models suite initialized well against the 00 analysis and
verified well against the 06z analysis. Model spread remains
minimal in the short range but again increases rapidly by the
weekend with considerable differences on position and strength
noted on a strong shortwave expected to move east over the high
Arctic north of Siberia over the weekend.

Aloft at 500 hpa...a weak shortwave currently located 100 nm
northwest of Wainwright will rapidly fill and move northeast as a
ridge builds rapidly north and east over the Bering Strait and
western Bering Sea today and Thursday. An upper level ridge will
continue in place over the Alaska Panhandle with weak waves
moving northeast along the western edge over the west coast today
and into the western interior Thursday and eastern Alaska Friday
morning. Another shortwave with an attending weak surface low
moves east out the central Bering Sea Thursday night and Friday as
a weak ridge builds north and east over the southern interior

On the surface...a 1028 mb high pressure system over Banks Island
will remain nearly stationary as a 988 mb low over eastern Siberia
moves north and east into the Arctic Ocean Wednesday and Thursday.
A ridge of high pressure builds north out of the central Bering
Sea into the Bering Strait and the west coast of Alaska Wednesday
and Thursday. A weak trough will move northeast over the western
and central interior today and into tonight and will interact with
a weak thermal trough and will be the focal point for isolated
thunderstorms along an Arctic Village to Holy Cross line this
afternoon. Gusty chinook winds will continue through and near the
Alaska Range passes today before diminishing by late this evening.
Min RH values along along the Alaska Range are not expected to
drop below 40 percent limiting fire weather concerns in these
areas. The models continue to have difficulty with a powerful low
progged to develop over Siberia and move north into the East
Siberian Sea as a 970 MB low Friday and Saturday which will
increase the gradient over the Bering Strait and over the southern
Chukchi Sea and western North Slope.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


Gusty south winds will continue through and near the passes of the
Alaska Range with a Wind Advisory fro wind gusts to 50 mph
continuing for the eastern Alaska Range through Midnight tonight.
Isolated thunderstorms are expected along a line from Arctic
Village southwest to near Holy Cross. Minimum RH values are not
expected to be low enough to create red flag conditions.


Rainfall over the last 24 hours continues to diminish over the
Western Brooks range and western Interior. Small streams levels
have peaked and will continue to fall over the next several days.


Wind Advisory for AKZ226.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ225.


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