Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 281243
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
443 AM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Models...Continue to perform well over the past few days
concerning the major features and their movement. They all
initialized well against the 06Z surface analysis. GFS based
Surge guidance continues to show elevated water levels for the
Norton Sound region today as a long fetch of westerlies across
the Bering Sea pushes water into the Sound starting this morning
and persisting for about 15 hours. See West Coast section below
for more details. For the short term will use a blend to handle
the front moving onshore this morning since they show similar
timing. As the front moves east and weakens will use a blend with
a lean to the less aggressive NAM solution. Solutions still
converging on a high amplitude ridge building over the state this
coming weekend that will usher in above normal temperatures for
most areas.

Aloft...At 500 hpa...Fairly strong shortwave swinging around a 510
dam low 150 nm west of Wrangel Island lies from Wrangel Island to
Point Hope to Kaltag to Kuskokwim Bay this morning. The shortwave
moves rapidly east and away from the low and will lie from the low
300 nm west of Wrangel Island to Deadhorse to Tok by late this
evening, then out of the state. A trough will persist from
northwest to southeast across the arctic. Ridging that lies from
the eastern Aleutians to Central Siberia will move over Bristol
Bay, the eastern Bering Sea, and Chukchi Sea early Thursday
morning. The ridge will continue east to lie from The Shelikof
Strait to Point Lay, then northwest by Thursday afternoon, and by
Friday morning it will lie over the central part of the state and
the central arctic with 564 dam heights reaching north to the
arctic coast. The ridge will continue to slowly move east to be
over the AlCan border by Sunday morning with 564 dam heights still
reaching north to the arctic coast. A 504 dam low will over the
Sea of Ohkotsk will move to central Siberia by Friday morning at
511 dam and swing a developing 543 dam low out of the north
Pacific over the central Aleutians Friday evening. The low over
Siberia will remain quasi stationary into early next week, while
the low over the central Aleutians will dissipate and the
associated shortwave will move north up the west coast Sunday. At
850 hpa...Zero Isotherm has surged north over the west coast with
the front moving in but will slosh back south rapidly this morning
and be south of the forecast area this afternoon. As the ridge
start rotating over the state the Zero isotherm will push north
over the southwest mainland by Thursday morning. By Friday morning
it will have surged north over the arctic and east to lie from
Kuparuk to Yakutat, and will be east of the state late in the
morning. Temperatures up to 12 celsius will move over parts of the
southern interior Friday and Saturday. A slow cooling trend will
start on Sunday.

Surface...A 981 mb low 150 nm west of Wrangel island will move
slowly northeast. The associated warm front is moving over the
west coast this morning and lies from Cape lisburne to Golovin to
Kipnuk this morning, and will move to lie from Barrow to
Allakaket to Nikolai this afternoon. The front will exit the
state Thursday morning. Southeast winds in advance of the front
have picked up over the west coast with some areas reporting gusts
to around 55 mph. Winds will diminish as the turn from the west
later this morning but gust to 45 mph will still be possible. A
band of precipitation associated with the warm front is over the
coast and will move to the western interior this morning and into
the central interior this afternoon. The heaviest precipitation is
expected in the upslope areas over the western Brooks range this
morning with 0.25 to 0.50 inch of precipitation over most of the
forecast area.

Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Rapidly moving front will move
east across the arctic today with a mixed bag of precipitation
for a while this morning as warm air has pushed up over the
northwest coast in advance of the front. Will be mainly snow by
afternoon as it moves across the central and eastern arctic. Snow
accumulations will be up to 3 inches in the Brooks Range with
lesser amounts elsewhere. Winds mainly southeast in advance of
the front turning from the west behind it. winds will generally be
in the 10 to 25 mph range today then diminish to 5 to 15 mph
tonight. Some strong gusty winds this morning south of Point Lay
with gusts around 50 mph diminishing by noon. Temperatures cooling
over the northwest coast with the remainder of the area not seeing
much change until Friday when it starts to warm significantly for
the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...Front is making its way through
the area at this time. Winds currently from the southeast to
south will be swinging around to westerly this morning. Coastal
Flood Warning remains in effect for Norton Sound areas, with High
Surf conditions in most locations along the west coast through
today. Snow in the upper Kobuk and Noatak being reported so Winter
Weather Advisory for Snow is still in place. Primarily rain over
the areas south of Ambler, through there could be some snow mixed
in as the cold air comes in rapidly behind the front. Winds
generally 10 to 25 mph and gusty with some gusts to around 50 mph
near the Bering Strait. As winds swing around tonight through
Friday from the southeast winds in the coastal areas will pick
back up a bit to 15 to 25 mph and gusty. Not expecting any coastal
issues when the winds change, but water in the lagoons at Kotzebue
and Shishmaref will be elevated.

Central and Eastern Interior...Increasing clouds through the day
with rain moving through the area this afternoon and overnight.
Expect it to mix with snow at times, mainly north of the Yukon
River, and overnight in the Fortymile country and Upper Yukon
Flats. For Fairbanks expect the showers to start mid afternoon
today and end by Thursday morning with clearing after that as high
pressure builds over the area. Expect some cool temperatures
Thursday and Thursday night under mostly clear skies, then warming
temperatures starting Friday with temperatures well above normal
this coming weekend. Highs around Fairbanks will in the upper 50s
to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday. Rainfall amounts will be in the
0.25 to 0.50 inch. Winds generally light but may kick up to 10 mph
gusting to 20 mph from the southwest as the cold front moves
through.

&&

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4....Strong southeast winds
over the coastal areas through the weekend, but no issues are
anticipated.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Coastal Flood Warning FOR AKZ212.

High Surf Advisory FOR AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ214.

Winter Weather Advisory FOR AKZ217.

Small Craft Advisory FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-
PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

Gale Warning FOR PKZ200.

&&

$$

SDB SEP 16



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