Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 291941
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1141 AM AKDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN THIS MORNING AND VERIFIED WELL
AGAINST THE 12Z ANALYSIS. MINIMAL SPREAD FROM RUN TO RUN AND
BETWEEN MODEL FAMILIES CONTINUES THROUGH BOTH THE SHORT RANGE AND
MID TERM. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT REASONABLE LEVELS
OF SPREAD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM A 537 DAM LOW 350
NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT SOUTHWEST TO NEAR BRISTOL BAY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO THE NORTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA STRENGTHENS AND BUILD EAST OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT AND INTO THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR THURSDAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR FRIDAY. THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE DRYING AND WARMER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT BOTH MCGRATH AND FAIRBANKS CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DRY WITH ONLY AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED...AND THESE VALUES WILL DROP THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AS THE WARM AND DRY RIDGE BUILDS IN.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF
WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL FORM AGAIN TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR KALTAG EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF CHICKEN. BEST
LOCATION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND THROUGH THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY. EXPECT GRADUAL
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL AGAIN INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE
INTERIOR.

THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT WINDS. COASTAL AREAS MAY SEE LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AS THE
MARINE LAYER PUSHES INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.

ON THE NORTH SLOPE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WRANGLE ISLAND WILL MAINTAIN LOW CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREAS. DENSE FOG HEADLINES LIKELY
TO BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN COASTAL AREAS OF THE
NORTH SLOPE. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND AND UPPER LEVEL
LOW AROUND 400 NM NORTH OF POINT BARROW WILL SWEEP SOUTH AND EAST
OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY EVENING. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE OVER WESTERN NORTH SLOPE FRIDAY AS FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN A SLOW
DRYING AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILD SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW...THEN MANY AREAS FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY WILL SLOW AND BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY BUT DIMINISHES OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RAPID RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS WITH SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

CCC JUL 15



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