Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 270030
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
330 PM AKST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM.../ THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY / LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO TRACK SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH OF HAIDA GWAII TOWARDS VANCOUVER
ISLAND. A WEAK INVERTED THROUGH ALONG THE OUTER COAST OF THE
PANHANDLE IS KEEPING SLIGHTLY HIGHER GRADIENT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA AND NORTHWEST CANADA BUILDING AND SPREADING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF AND PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY. BREEZIER CONDITIONS
OVER NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AND NORTHEAST INTERIOR PASSES THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF TONIGHT ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH
THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE
PANHANDLE UNTIL ONLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD HAS ANY APPRECIABLE CLOUD
COVER REMAINING. THAT BAND OF CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE TO DIXON
ENTRANCE OR DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT THE GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE GONE WITH JUST A FEW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG OVER NIGHT MAINLY SOUTH OF SUMNER STRAIT AS
THEY HAVE HAD THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DRYING. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PATCHY FOG PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BUT THINK THAT WILL
BE LIMITED AND NEAR TIDEWATER AREAS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE FLATTENED BY A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THRU THE RIDGE TOP THIS WEEKEND. FIRST OF
THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT...FOLLOWED BY A RATHER
ELONGATED SHORTWAVE FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN. RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD
LATER SUN INTO MON ONCE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
LOOKS LIKE MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL TRY TO BREACH THE RIDGE
AROUND TUE-WED TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS DIFFER ON THIS. USED A
BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF THRU SUN AFTERNOON...THEN WENT WITH
LATEST WPC FOR SUN NIGHT ONWARD.

FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT...SOME HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE NE GULF COAST FRI NIGHT...THEN SOME OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SAT. THESE CLOUDS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE TO
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR SAT...THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE
THRU THE HIGH CLOUDS. IF THEY ARE A LITTLE THICKER THOUGH...LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO BUMP IT UP TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR SAT.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN...MORE CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIP SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE N GULF THAT
MOVES SE ALONG THE OUTER COAST LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN. LIGHT RAIN
WILL LIKELY MOVE IN BY LATE EVENING ALONG THE NE GULF COAST...AND
REACH MOST OF THE REMAINING AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. SOME SNOW
COULD BE MIXED IN OVER THE MORE NRN AND ERN AREAS WHERE LIGHT
WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SFC.
PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER 1/4 INCH THOUGH SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS. SYSTEM
WILL EXIT AREA QUICKLY TO THE SE SUN AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO DEVELOP FROM THE NW.

FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY SPELL FOR
THE AREA AS RIDGE SHARPENS UP AGAIN TO THE W OF THE AREA. LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THIS
TIME...ALLOWING NIGHTTIME TEMPS TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S OVER
MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK QUICKLY
THOUGH AND PROBABLY REACH THE 40S MOST PLACES.

FOR TUE ONWARD...INCREASING THREAT FOR PRECIP AS MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BE FIGHTING THE RIDGE. AT
THIS POINT...LIMITED HIGH END POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS...AND THIS
WILL BE MAINLY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. KEPT IN AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS OUT TO THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH AS MORE SYSTEMS MAY
AFFECT THE AREA.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-031-032-035-041>043.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/RWT

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