Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 280146

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
946 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 936 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Skies have largely cleared within dry northerly flow regime on
front side of Lake Michigan centered ridge axis. Temperatures
have tanked in response, with much of the area already in the
upper 20s and lower 30s. These cool temperatures and remnant
surface moisture has resulted in patchy fog, some of which has
been briefly dense. Pattern remains transient, however, with said
ridging pushing east of our area by morning, forcing beginning
stages of waa across the northwest half of the area. Large area of
MVFR producing overcast just upstream, some of which will advance
northeast into eastern upper and the west half of northern lower
Michigan by sunrise. Shallow moisture depth and lack of forcing
will prevent any rain (although suppose a touch of drizzle cannot
be completely ruled out).


.SHORT TERM...(This evening into Friday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High impact weather potential: becoming windy near Lake MI Fri

1012mb surface low pressure near BUF, producing ne-erly surface
winds in northern MI. Considerable, though light, lake effect rain
showers are seen south of M-32 and near/east of I-75. Much drier
low level air is getting entrained into the region from the north,
with eastern upper MI enjoying plenty of sunshine this afternoon.
Precip and cloud trends are the main concern.

Tonight...with 1000-850mb flow backing to the north, we have a brief
window this evening to push drier air into the region. It helps that
the cloud cover in se portions of the forecast area has gone
cellular; that diurnal cu field will diminish with loss of heating.
The influx of drier air from the north will hinder lake effect
precip (a trend already noted on radar this afternoon). Ongoing
showers will diminish as we move thru the evening. Expect all areas
to see a period of partly cloudy to even mostly clear skies by late
evening, with more cloud cover w than e.

However, a ridge of high pressure (presently from central Superior
to central Iowa) will quickly cross the region tonight. Sw 1000-
850mb flow will resume overnight into nw lower and eastern upper MI.
Low clouds are widespread upstream on that trajectory, and anticipate
mostly cloudy skies to return to all areas but ne lower MI overnight.

Min temps mainly upper 20s to mid 30s, somewhat warmer along the
Lake MI coast.

Friday...southwest low-level flow will rapidly increase, in advance
of a mature 1001mb low pressure system that moves into nw Ontario in
the afternoon. 850mb temps will rise into the middle teens C. Breezy
to windy conditions will develop in the afternoon, especially along
the Lake MI coast, where gusts will approach 35 mph. Sub-900mb
moisture will remain pervasive, and there will be plenty of mid/high
clouds as well. Plenty of cloud cover again expected, with the
Saginaw Bay region a marginal exception. Will have to watch for some
drizzle in spots, but for now in most areas substantial precip is
not expected. The main exception is eastern upper MI late in the
day, at the nose of the stronger low level jet crossing central/
northern Lake MI (1000-850mb winds nearing 45kt), and where a weak
shortwave moves across upper MI and Superior. Some showers could
develop in eastern upper MI late in the day, and chancy/sct pops
remain appropriate there.

Max temps much milder...near 50 (eastern upper) to the upper 50s
(west of TVC/CAD).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Friday night through Sunday...

Low pressure tracks by to our north Friday night and drags a weak
cold front across the region late. Moisture profiles with this
system are disjointed with decent mid/high level moisture and dry
low levels initially followed by moist low levels and dry mid/high
levels after that. So will continue with the chance pops for rain
showers (highest north where moisture is slightly deeper). A mild
zonal flow sets up on Saturday with only a slight chance for
afternoon showers. A somewhat stronger cold front then moves through
the area Saturday evening with perhaps a few showers. In addition,
will have watch for a possible wave moving up along the departing
front Saturday night which could produce a few showers across
southern zones. Cooler temperatures on Sunday as high pressure
builds in. It looks cold enough for lake effect Sunday off of Lake
Superior (depending upon your model of choice) but the incoming
airmass looks rather dry and winds are pretty light to be the focus
of much organization so will leave it out at this time (but
something to keep in mind for future forecasts). Lows Friday night
in mild middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs Saturday in the middle 50s to
lower 60s. Lows Saturday night in the upper 30s to middle 40s with
highs Sunday in the seasonable middle 40s to lower 50s.

Extended 0Z MON OCT 31 TO 0Z FRI NOV 4

Expect temperatures to run above normal through the extended as
surface high pressure and ridging set up for most of the period.
There is a low expected to develop in the northern Plains that
continues to be forecast tracking north of us early in the week.
This could bring showers particularly to northern areas as the
occluded front passes, but better forcing will remain to our north.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Dry air continues to filter south, helping scour out what had been
persistent mvfr cigs. This trend should continue for a few more
hours before upstream band of lower mvfr producing cigs once again
advances into the region as off the deck southwest flow
strengthens. These lower cigs look to stay out of KAPN, but impact
the other sites right through Friday morning. Some improvement
expected by later Friday afternoon. Light winds to become a bit
gusty out of the south Friday afternoon, especially at KTVC and


Issued at 332 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Ongoing ne winds around departing low pressure near Buffalo are
diminishing. However, winds/waves remain up over the Lake Huron
buoys. Have extended ongoing small craft advisories thru the
evening along the ne lower MI coast, while canceling along the se
shore of the UP.

Strong sw winds develop Fri afternoon, especially over Lake MI,
ahead of low pressure moving into far western Ontario. Will be
upgrading to gale warnings near and south of Gd Trav Light, where
confidence is greatest in gale-force gusts. Will maintain a gale
watch to the north, where confidence is less.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347>349.

LM...GALE WARNING from 3 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for

     GALE WATCH from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for



LONG TERM...Sullivan/ALM
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