Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231508
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1008 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Deformation axis driven snow is currently pinwheeling across north
central and northeast lower Michigan. This in combination with
falling temperatures has led to slippery roadways. Activity will
shift out the area by around noon today. Have removed northwest
lower from the headlines as the snow moves off to the southeast.
Only remaining counties in an advisory are Otsego, Montmorency and
Alpena (goes through noon). Did issue a special weather statement
for southeast zones due to the snow in combination with wet
roadways icing up. Could see an inch or perhaps up to two inches of
accumulation in these areas. Colder air will continue to filter
in this afternoon with mainly light north northwest flow lake
effect developing.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 311 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Turning colder with wintry mix changing to snow today and
eventually ending tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Falling temps today causing wet
surfaces to freezing as mixed precip transitions to snow. Travel
will remain hazardous today.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Complex area of low pressure has reached
Lower Michigan early this morning. Associated warm front remains
just south of our CWA...with the cold front stretching south of the
low center thru Indiana and Kentucky. Numerous waves of precip have
impacted our CWA over the past 24 hours in advance of this system.
Precip has been mainly snow across eastern Upper Michigan...while
far northern Lower Michigan has experienced freezing rain and some
snow with temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Southern sections of
our CWA have received mainly plain rain so far where temps have been
mainly in the mid 30s. A few locations across Emmet county have
reported ice accumulations up to 0.3 inches. Overall...current
headlines across the northern two-thirds of our CWA have been
working out well.

As we head thru today...low pressure center will continue its slow
eastward track thru Lower Michigan early this morning...reaching
Lake Huron by mid/late morning and eventually SW Quebec by evening.
CAA will kick in from NW to SE across our CWA today on the backside
of the surface low...with temps steadily falling throughout the day.
Temps have already begun to fall into the teens across eastern Upper
Michigan and into the low to mid 20s in the Straits. As this
occurs...one more batch of precip will surge northward into northern
Lower Michigan along the NE periphery of the surface low early this
morning...as is evident on the latest KAPX base ref loop. Near term
model soundings show the maintenance of the warm nose aloft thru
early morning across locations along and north of M-32 across far
northern Lower Michigan and in the higher elevations...suggesting
another round of freezing precip as surface temps continue to hover
around or just below freezing. Eastern Upper Michigan model
soundings are completely below freezing thru the day. Any additional
precip they receive will be all snow and should be minor (i.e. an
inch or less). Will therefore let the advisory for eastern Upper
Michigan expire on time at 10Z...but will extend the headlines
(warnings and advisories for far northern Lower Michigan thru the
morning hours as this next area of likely mixed precip lifts
northward thru that area. Precip should switch over to all snow by
around midday or so and will then quickly diminish thru the
afternoon and tonight as subsidence and much drier air builds into
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 311 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Quiet with temperatures moderating by Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Expansive surface high over the
nation`s midsection will settle over the Great Lakes Wednesday into
Thursday. Meanwhile, an amplifying ridge aloft will gradually slide
towards the region. These features, combined with a dry airmass, are
expected to suppress any precipitation during the midweek period.
Weak warm air advection will develop late Wednesday night into
Thursday, with surface temperatures starting to moderate in
response.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Evaluating possibility for light
lake effect snow showers Wednesday.

While dry conditions are expected to prevail Wednesday through
Thursday, some models have been spitting out very light QPF south of
Grand Traverse Bay on Wednesday. The overall setup is not supportive
of this, however. 850mb temperatures will only drop to around -12C
at their coldest Wednesday afternoon, and northern Lake Michigan
water temperatures currently range from around +2 to +4C. So, over-
lake instability will be marginal. 850-700mb layer RH will be around
40% initially, gradually increasing to around 70% by afternoon.
Additionally, low level winds will be very light (generally 15 knots
or less below 850mb) and slowly backing from the NNE. Maintaining a
dry forecast, but will have to monitor the potential for perhaps
some flurries south of Grand Traverse Bay through the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 311 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Northern Michigan will lie between the strong departing surface high
sliding into the Northeast and a developing system lifting from
North Dakota into Ontario. This will lead to intensifying return
flow and strong WAA for us, drawing increasing warmth and moisture
into the region. As this system heads towards James Bay Friday
night, it will drag a cold front through northern Michigan Saturday
morning. The system is not looking to bring as much precipitation to
the area as models were projecting earlier, but there will be the
potential for light rain/snow. A colder airmass will arrive behind
the front, setting the stage for some lake effect snow chances early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 609 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

Mixed precip will change over to all snow from NW to SE across
northern Lower Michigan this morning as cold air sweeps into the
region in the wake of low pressure tracking thru our state.
Overall conditions will remain IFR thru this morning...but should
begin to improve to MVFR this afternoon. MVFR conditions will then
persist thru tonight as plenty of low clouds remain over northern
Michigan. Some lake enhanced snow showers will linger this
afternoon and tonight...especially for locations targeted by
northerly flow off of Lake Michigan (TVC and MBL). Winds will
shift to the north and eventually NW behind the departing low and
will strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with higher gusts expected.
Strengthening winds will cause some blowing snow.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ022>024.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AS
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MR



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